i'm not looking for mathematical certainty, i'm making decisions based upon probabilistic outcomes... by using actual tools to analyze data instead of hocus pocus. Learning from Al brooks requires placing faith in him and his understanding of the markets (which is bullshit). Where is your sense of skepticism and truth-seeking? Why wouldn't you think to conduct an analysis of time-varying patterns to assess the credibility of Brooks?
Tribute to Brooks
- Thread starter padutrader
- Start date
just because prices follow a Brownian motion doesn't mean that they cannot be exploited.
you should watch this:
Who Makes Money in the Stock Market (The Only Game in Town) - YouTube
So you're a cog in an institution formed to manage a portfolio (if that, you sound more like an undergraduate with just enough study to be dangerous). You think that gives you insight into trading for a living? Understanding the difference between apples and oranges need to preclude discussing their relative merits.
Of course. Like I said already buyers and sellers on every bar. One side wins for a while then the other. Direction, volatility, momentum, and volume are clues to which side is winning at the moment.
So you are saying bullish institutions don’t move price?
They may move it up to make a profit. Or they may move it down to buy more. But in the end the pictures becomes clearer. If the markets goes up and up most of the session it sure as hell ain’t the bearish institutions winning (for that session). Now they (bearish institutions) may be shorting and shorting more and more averaging down but the bulls are stronger or the market would go down on their shorting. And if they are just shorting not trying to average down but to just make it go down but it is going up then the bulls are stronger in that case too.
If you're asking me whether I think my experience is directly relevant to generating pnl from trading, then yes.
That may well be true, but your idea of alpha and mine are likely very different.
I will watch your video when I get time. But anything labeled “The Only Game in Town” is suspect and is waving a red flag violently back and forth.
I suspect it will say the market has “noise” and deal with that noise issue. If so, I would disagree with that concept. There is no noise. If it moves 1 tick there is a reason.
There are no buyers and sellers per bar. There are buyers and sellers for each level of price (and they all wait in line until they get filled). Think about how a bar is formed is on your chart.
oh they do but not in how you think and that information is not useful for you. Institutions (non-individual pools of capital) do not "scalp" lol. This is because they are so big that moving in and out of a stock quickly will have a very large impact. They generally trade using algos and order types that limit the market impact, often trading over days, weeks, or quarters or through using block trades (which is usually the last bit). They are not trading per candle or doji.
[/QUOTE]
Why are you making up your own definition of alpha lol? Excess returns is such a simple and elegant way to describe it.
Nobody said they were trading per candle. But their trading is graphically represented by price bars. They cannot hide their true intentions for long. Do you know why in one session the entire session is a grind up and not down?
If you don’t understand that there are buyers and sellers represented on each bar whether bull, bear, or doji then you are oblivious to the fact that they are the very reason for the bar formation as it is being formed and when it closes at it’s final state.
Last edited: