Everybody has their own definition of a trend and the attached chart is a visual representation of what I consider to be a trend with shallow pullbacks.
Mark
(a.k.a. NihabaAshi) Japanese Candlestick term
Trendy vs Sideways Day
- Thread starter toc
- Start date
Everybody has their own definition of a trend and the attached chart is a visual representation of what I consider to be a trend with shallow pullbacks.
Mark
(a.k.a. NihabaAshi) Japanese Candlestick term
You can never predict with certainty if the market will trend or go sideways for any particular day. But you can guess with a high probability based on previous market behaviors.
Generally, news tend to move the market. Earning releases month will generally be volatile. Before you trade each day, look at the news. See if there are any important economics reports due to be released that day. Yahoo finance has most of the date of important economics and earning reports.
An added indication of volatility for a particular day could be gauged by looking at fair value of the indices prior to market open. Also, look at volume. Is volume lower than normal during this particular hour of the trading day?
With that being said, news released unexpectedly during a sideway trading day or even on a trending day can change volatility/trend very quickly. Most of the time, the market would move ahead of the news (that is by the time you know about the news, it's old news). Therefore, it's better to follow price action.
My 2cents.
Generally, news tend to move the market. Earning releases month will generally be volatile. Before you trade each day, look at the news. See if there are any important economics reports due to be released that day. Yahoo finance has most of the date of important economics and earning reports.
An added indication of volatility for a particular day could be gauged by looking at fair value of the indices prior to market open. Also, look at volume. Is volume lower than normal during this particular hour of the trading day?
With that being said, news released unexpectedly during a sideway trading day or even on a trending day can change volatility/trend very quickly. Most of the time, the market would move ahead of the news (that is by the time you know about the news, it's old news). Therefore, it's better to follow price action.
My 2cents.
Agreed and here is my personal definition in chart form.
The Green/Black trendline on the indicator is drawn and labeled in realtime as to the "Long Term"Trend. The Green trendline on price is drawn and Price Labeled in realtime as to the "next fastest chart increment's Primary Oscillations". This determines the "Best" profit move Entry/Exit points inside the trend and are manually marked "Prime Buy or Sell". The Minor oscillations are the noise inside the trend that is either "in the confirmed direction of price" (Aggressive) or showing consolidation (stand aside).
I agree that Price is not predictive but I will say it is readable if one first defines "Trend" using strict guidelines.
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Your welcome, since dont know how to post a chart ;
will comment on Marks,Profitlogics, thats pretty much what I mean.
Also if you like an occasional moving average, like a 10 ema,
a shallow pullback downtrend will usually not pull back above it much;
an uptrend will not usually pull back below 10 ema much .
50 day moving average helps also.Sideways trends are better traded withouut ma, probably why i prefer more of a move.
So while maximum trends are perhaps our hearts desire;
if a market only gives part of a days trend or a mini trend, that works also.
Quote from toc:
"shallow pullbacks" What are these, would you be able to attach a chart. Thanks [/QUOTE
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TOC;
AN INTRADAY chart , SAME PRINCIPAL,
SPY 3-14-06, hourly charts;
note how open price of most hours is same or close to hourly lows
Each so called trend will end at the first bend.
So intraday 'bends' plus 'trends' up and down = gyrations (eg YM). Thats gets back to my terminology.
When the term trend is used is that just a substantial upmove or downmove occurring intraday (eg YM)? Is it underlying, so if an uptrend, price at some point was lower the previous day but goes higher tomorrow (more than one day underlying)? Is it underlying for a week or month if its existence is being relied on by players? Is it simply underlying, if an uptrend, by assuming that it is a bull market, which it has been, up to the last very recent high?
Bottom line: how useful is all this when all the action is in the near term in front of everyones eyes?
So intraday 'bends' plus 'trends' up and down = gyrations (eg YM). Thats gets back to my terminology.
When the term trend is used is that just a substantial upmove or downmove occurring intraday (eg YM)? Is it underlying, so if an uptrend, price at some point was lower the previous day but goes higher tomorrow (more than one day underlying)? Is it underlying for a week or month if its existence is being relied on by players? Is it simply underlying, if an uptrend, by assuming that it is a bull market, which it has been, up to the last very recent high?
Bottom line: how useful is all this when all the action is in the near term in front of everyones eyes?
the best way to predict (with nowhere near 100% accuracy) as to whether a day is gonna be trend or not, is to understand key price levels on a daily, weekly, quarterly, monthly basis - i use Market Profile - and to also study the statistics in regards to range expansion/contraction over the last several days.
this can help you determine when a day is showing signs it will continue a move into trend, or reverse
this can help you determine when a day is showing signs it will continue a move into trend, or reverse
Quote from Cheese:
Each so called trend will end at the first bend.
Bottom line: how useful is all this when all the action is in the near term in front of everyones eyes?
Trends are determined by 3 sequential oscillations at specific extreme (Stong) levels of Support or Resistance:
Either HH - HL - HH to create or continue a Bull Trend or LL - LH - LL to create or continue a Bear Trend. One single oscillation doesn't reverse a trend. Create consolidation yes but not reverse it.
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Some people use that but dont dump thier derivative charts;
simply keep bid-ask on thier charts also.
And while a 50 moving average may not help scalpers;
the fact that some people like it occasionaly as a trend guide,
probably more useful on stocks, especially dividend stocks.