Trendfollowers: When oh when are we going to start making some $$$?
- Thread starter Ash1972
- Start date
Sorry, did you mean you dynamically decide which assets are trending or mean reverting as time unfolds? Or, that you have a fixed set of 'trending' assets? The former is of course perfectly valid. If you decide to treat different markets in different ways based on a process that *itself* treats every market the same way, then that's fine.
You trade probabilities? BIG mistake, my friend - you want to be trading expectancies. Most people (I don't mean you) don't know the difference and really should read Fooled by Randomness.
You trade probabilities? BIG mistake, my friend - you want to be trading expectancies. Most people (I don't mean you) don't know the difference and really should read Fooled by Randomness.
With regard to time charts, probability is not the priority. Certainties are the priority on time charts.
What is your reality is not necessarily the reality of those who are extracting the market's offer. The market's offer is THE standard for EFFECTIVENESS and EFFICIENCY of trading. Timing markets is involved.
At any time about 15,000 equities are available for culling. Among those equities who "offer", there are always an excess of instruments available 12 (say, 12 streams of capital @ 2.5 milliion each) for trading up to 100,000 shares per instrument for a term of 2 to 5 days where the daily rate of return is OVER 3 times the market (3 BETA stocks). Nominally half the 20% run is taken (10% is taken).
For large capital, sector trading is more appropriate where unlimitied capital strams are deployed and money is made somewhat more slowly due to partial filling being required over days.
For commodities trading 10,000 contracts on ES is the limit and as explaines above, the margin applied is extracted on a daily basis doing intraday trading.
All of the above is done NOT using probabilities on time based charts. What is used is a certainty priority that comes from a logic based binary vector system.
People who are statistically based finf that certainty based deducutive logic systems result are "unbelieveable", "astonisihing' and just plain "bullshit". The people who use CW are cornered in a very small box and everything they see when they look out of the box is "unbelievable, "astonishing" and "bullshit" to them because of their personal frame of reference instead of the MARKET'S OFFER which is actually the satandard of trading.
these people stamp their forheads with CW and go through life with that stamp on their forheads. They are very funny looking people to those who take the market's offer as a regular routine.
Thanks for sharing the Excel file. One question (not a flame or troll, a genuine question) -- in your seminar you teach ag futures strategies (per your PDF) but this Excel file is for ticker ES - ?
yes, so what? Not everyone is reading my posts either, some put me on ignore, so what. If it has not become apparently clear to you that ProfLogic is a complete snake oil salesmen then I cannot help you anymore. What is your point in arguing with someone who lacks reasoning? If you would simply ignore him (as I do) then the quality of this thread would raise instantaneously.