Trendfollowers: When oh when are we going to start making some $$$?

[asiaprop]

lol, YOU are the one who should keep priorities straight, this was about trend following before you came here with your Jack Hersey shit to hijack the whole thing.

"I work for a prop firm because I cannot do it by myself?" This is such a contradiction. First, I dont work for a "prop" firm. I work/worked inside an ibank, which is very different from "prop firms"/arcades. Secondly, without rigorous testing, risk management, and generating sufficient p&l you get your ass fired faster than you can even think. So, its funny you accuse someone who has passed at least those marks (and it was backed up and verified by others) while you are being here anonymously on the net with your fractal bull shit and what have you, things that are so messed up and utter nonsense, nobody has a zero clue what your guru Jack Hersey is saying. You know, I do not have respect for people who cannot explain difficult concepts in easy terms. And you know what? I am way self-confident enough to openly admit I never understood for one single time what Jack Hersey is even trying to say. But I admit I also never made it past the 3rd sentence of his posts. It stinks from the first words and I think I am not the only one in here.

I recommend you back off with your accusations. I think most of my posts have been very clear, some of them being rants, others to help newbies and especially most to protect beginners from snake oil salesmen like yours.

Quote from ProfLogic:

Yea, giving it away for free is truly something YOU would never understand. Pilfered any copyrighted material lately?

Literally everything I do is outlined here on ET and is free. If you have the intelligence, slightly above moron, to lay it out and validate what I do for yourself you will see whether or not it is something that might work for you. It is always individuals like yourself and Goodboy (Marketsurfer aka Stockta) that aren't the brightest bulbs in the closet that would rather just SAY it can't work because you aren't smart enough to check it out for yourself.

I mean be real, you work for a prop firm because you aren't able to do it on your own. Talk about handicapped.

If you want to turn this into a pissing contest, that it totally up to you. I personally would prefer taking the high road and continuing with the intelligent conversation that was talking place previously. Even you were making sense before your wisecrack.

 

[ProfLogic]

Quote from jack hershey:

mizhael and southall are posting from an inductive orientation. On the other hand proflogic is speaking from a reasoning point of view.
Until a trader or designer makes the shift from induction to deduction, he gets the consequences of non performance.
I certainly do NOT use induction nor do I use support and resistance to construct the reasoning factors. BUT I do use trend following as the basis of my paradigm.
As proflogic points out money is made when traversing from one boundary to another. This is often referred to "being on the correct side of the market". The test of this sentiment does require both market vbariables. As you see profitlogic uses the two variables of the market.
Those using induction are NOT using the two market variables. they are getting the consequences as they sate to us in thier posts. they have questions also. These questions originate as a consequence of not using more than one market variable.
As you see proflogic uses an up and down orientation.
I do not; I use a left/right orientation.
If a person uses principles to construct his system, then it works over all time periods. If a person uses data to construct his system, then it will not perform over time (that is to say, sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't).
A shown by some posts, the systems of some people are not neutrally biased. As you see proflogic's system is neutrally biased. there is a definite requirement to be neutrally biased and to define all system components from a neutrally biased viewpoint.

The interesting part Jack is that you and I are diametrically opposed when it comes to the way we trade but we can still talk civilly to each other. We each have an understanding about each others trading environment even though we would NEVER trade each others method. It just wouldn't be kosher . . . probably closer to being totally alien.

I'm an avid believer that there are many many ways to profit from these markets. Many different edges produce profit for many different types of traders. Just like saying that one trader's trend could be another traders pullback. We need to each find something that we are comfortable with and that produces consistent profits and then simply run with it. Get damn good at it regardless of where it comes from.

I used to teach classes but no longer do so. Now I simple trade full time. There never was any money in teaching as any real trader and a bit of common sense could tell you. There is far more money in trading than teaching. The teaching was simply a way to help progress my method by infusing it with different points of view to debug the basic process. The foundation of what I do has never charged but it sure has progressed as technology has advanced. I can do more today simply by using a beast of a computer like a hex core running 16GB of ram than I ever could with a P3.

I give my stuff away for free now. Why . . . because I f_cking can.

Validate it and use it in good health or throw it away and go find something else. WOOOHOO, whatever trips your trigger but don't call my stuff snake oil. Those that are the first to rag on both of us have never tested either one. Too lazy or too ignorant it don't much matter, right?

I talked to more than a few PROFITABLE traders that trade your stuff in Vegas at the Expo and was impressed with their understanding of your environment. I could not do it because it makes my head hurt but by God, more power to them. It truly pisses some people off that they can't trade or comprehend a particular method. Well guess what, I can't trade yours or understand some of what you do and it doesn't piss me off in the least.

Peace to you and hopefully I can buy you a drink someday before we both smell roots.

 

[mizhael]

Quote from asiaprop:

its about riding trends as long as they last and then move on to other instruments. For example EUR trended greatly but I dont have it on my trend system right now, simply because it mostly consolidates first. Even a successful trading system is not an ATM machine. You need to also look at the larger macro context because currently moves can be heavily impacted by political interventions, for example. Another example is BP, this stock was a no brainer when it started to break down, but would I still trade it now? Of course not because the price action turned into a pure coin flip. I generally do not like to trade gold because it has become very choppy. Remember 2008. Everyone expected to have gold go through the roof but in the end it crashed because of hedge fund redemptions. Its all about the selection of the assets you plug into your system. The same asset is never trending all the time. I trade a "rotational" trend following system which I developed myself, meaning, it includes and excludes assets based on its most recent trend characteristics but I also override the asset selection quite frequently. Nothing can be completely automated, at least thats what I experienced...

I am interested in building such a "rotational" trend following system too...

Anybody has any suggestions?

I can do some backtest and post results here...

 

[mizhael]

Quote from MKTrader:

I've tested many long-term systems, trend-following and otherwise. Plenty of them caught at least a chunk of the 2009 trend. Some also avoided most of the 2000-2002 and 2007-2008 bear markets. And some of them were created in the 1990s, so I know they weren't curve-fit to recent markets....

Interesting... are you saying that you tested some systems created with parameter fixed in the 1990s and then apply these systems out-sample to recent data and they are still successful?

 

[mizhael]

Quote from salvador90:

i'm a trend follower... and made sererious money in 2009 unlike most trend followers at least the "official" ones on hedge funds...

2010 sos far has been pretty good to... mostrly due to sugar and the strength of the dollar...

i guess it depends from trend follower to trend follower if you make money or not... big guys like hedge funds diversify through a lot more markets than i do so it may be a reason they are not up as much... differences from trend followers usually come down to differente portfolio allocations

since most CTA's are overly exposed to commodities, and a lot diversified in those, commodities indeed were very choppy in 2009... so i guess that would be a reason for the underperformance of CTA's in 2009 ...

You said you are not that diversified...

Then how did you select your small pool of focused securities?

 

[ProfLogic]

Quote from asiaprop:

lol, YOU are the one who should keep priorities straight, this was about trend following before you came here with your Jack Hersey shit to hijack the whole thing.

"I work for a prop firm because I cannot do it by myself?" This is such a contradiction. First, I dont work for a "prop" firm. I work/worked inside an ibank, which is very different from "prop firms"/arcades. Secondly, without rigorous testing, risk management, and generating sufficient p&l you get your ass fired faster than you can even think. So, its funny you accuse someone who has passed at least those marks (and it was backed up and verified by others) while you are being here anonymously on the net with your fractal bull shit and what have you, things that are so messed up and utter nonsense, nobody has a zero clue what your guru Jack Hersey is saying. You know, I do not have respect for people who cannot explain difficult concepts in easy terms. And you know what? I am way self-confident enough to openly admit I never understood for one single time what Jack Hersey is even trying to say. But I admit I also never made it past the 3rd sentence of his posts. It stinks from the first words and I think I am not the only one in here.

I recommend you back off with your accusations. I think most of my posts have been very clear, some of them being rants, others to help newbies and especially most to protect beginners from snake oil salesmen like yours.

What I do is "Trend Following" it just doesn't fall into your cookie cutter version of what you THINK it should be. Well, hears a rude awakening, their are other schools of thought out here other than yours and your parents should have taught you to respect that which you have no understanding of until you VALIDATE IT.

Congratulations is due for you excelling in the world of mindless economics. I am not being rude with that statement either. Most can't accomplish that. Well done. I simply chose the road NEVER traveled. I grabbed a machette and found a different path but that doesn't mean it was any less of an accomplishment than what you achieved. I chose to NOT accept the standard deviation and chose to solve a problem you didn't even know existed.

To clarify a few points for you as well and to correct a few of your misconceptions.

1. I am not anonomous. My full name is in these threads and many have contacted me directly and I have given them my information freely.

2. What I do have absolutely nothing to do with fractals.

3. Jack is not MY guru. As stated previously. Jack's stuff makes my head hurt but that isn't saying that some do truly understand it and profit from it.

4. I have explained what I do in easy terms and they are laid out in these threads. I hid nothing. Easy enough that there are a number of 10, 11 and 12 year olds that completely understand my basic concepts. Basic because it is founded on the principles of simply physics and logic. I can't help it YOU can't comprehend it. Maybe you ought to go out and buy a elementary physics book and read it.

As you can see, every assuption you make of me is wrong. Nuff said.

 

[mizhael]

Quote from ProfLogic:

First I place my stops a few ticks off the natural reoccurring support and resistance oscillations that my constant (capped) volume bar charts create. Time based charts have a tendency to produce more choppy idiosyncratic price moves which will stop you out more than keep you in.

One of the things I've found is that if you are using volume bar charting the oscillations are smoother and I'm rarely stopped out. Remember I'm not entering trades during consolidation either which drastically increases risk.

How do you judge "consolidation" programmatically?

 

[mizhael]

Quote from MKTrader:

Too late for me...I signed up for Jack Hershey's class after his "fractal this...deductive that" post. I'm just waitin' for the millions to roll in.

Which class is that? I couldn't find it... Please give me some pointers...

 

[mizhael]

Quote from asiaprop:

lol, who does not. Fact is around 95% of the times markets dont move straight up or down. Another fact is that if you did not make money in 2008 and 2009 based on the plentiful trends then you a) either dont have skills to trend trade, b) made some big errors, c) are not a trend trader. It does not get better in terms of trendiness. I rather expect a lot of reversals and slow grinds up or down over the summer months unless Europe is going down the hill again earlier than I expect.

I agree... adding d) maybe the model is overfitted...

 

[asiaprop]

you teaching tells all. But sounded convincing that you went back to full time "trading" -> translation: Nobody bought my snake oil BS anymore. Yes, enough said!!!

Quote from ProfLogic:

What I do is "Trend Following" it just doesn't fall into your cookie cutter version of what you THINK it should be. Well, hears a rude awakening, their are other schools of thought out here other than yours and your parents should have taught you to respect that which you have no understanding of until you VALIDATE IT.

Congratulations is due for you excelling in the world of mindless economics. I am not being rude with that statement either. Most can't accomplish that. Well done. I simply chose the road NEVER traveled. I grabbed a machette and found a different path but that doesn't mean it was any less of an accomplishment than what you achieved. I chose to NOT accept the standard deviation and chose to solve a problem you didn't even know existed.

To clarify a few points for you as well and to correct a few of your misconceptions.

1. I am not anonomous. My full name is in these threads and many have contacted me directly and I have given them my information freely.

2. What I do have absolutely nothing to do with fractals.

3. Jack is not MY guru. As stated previously. Jack's stuff makes my head hurt but that isn't saying that some do truly understand it and profit from it.

4. I have explained what I do in easy terms and they are laid out in these threads. I hid nothing. Easy enough that there are a number of 10, 11 and 12 year olds that completely understand my basic concepts. Basic because it is founded on the principles of simply physics and logic. I can't help it YOU can't comprehend it. Maybe you ought to go out and buy a elementary physics book and read it.

As you can see, every assuption you make of me is wrong. Nuff said.