Trend riding

if you keep changing, you might end up with all winners. I already know any system I've tried will not make me money. And all the systems I've tried are smarter than me, so then, the logical conclusion is, if I want to make money I must keep changing.

I'm just one step ahead of the law of averages. If I stop, they will catch up with me.

If I wanted to settle down I wouldn't trade. If you could make money without changing you wouldn't need a system. There would be no need for a system because it is already easy for anybody to just not change.
 
Originally posted by profitseer
if you keep changing, you might end up with all winners. I already know any system I've tried will not make me money. And all the systems I've tried are smarter than me, so then, the logical conclusion is, if I want to make money I must keep changing.
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I guess we have distinguish between "changing" the system and "adjusting" the system to new circumstances. If we change the system too often, there is actually no system.

cpo
 
right cpo, that's what I said, there is no system...that I know of....which will make money....so that is why I must keep....changing the system to be sure I am not trading a system, and the nagging thought in the back of my head is, "What if changing everyday is actually a system?" oh no, then I'll never make money! cause no system ever makes me money!

gotta go to work now and execute my well thought out trading plan for the day,

ok well fine then, I gotta go to work and come up with some kind of plan for the day.

My best trades come when I am trying to think up a plan and the market kind of taps me on the shoulder and I say, "Go away! I'm thinking!" and then just to get it to stop bothering me I kind of subconsciously either buy or sell then take my profit and then say,"So, now where was I before I was so rudely interrupted?"
 
Originally posted by J_Commisso
Well the quiet times is when you want to be patient of course, but always be ready to pounce on opportunity should it suddenly arise! There is no better suited arena for the saying
"The quiet before the storm...."
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Nature always tends to act in the simplest way.

Bernoulli
 
Originally posted by trend_guy
finally someone is on the same wave length as me!

BTW, what are Sperandeo's definitions?
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"Upward Trend - An upward trend is a series of successive rallies that penetrate previous high points, interrupted by sell-offs or declines, which terminate above the low points of the preceding sell-off. In other words, an uptrend is a price movement consisting of a series of higher highs and higher lows.

Downward Trend - A downward trend is a series of successive declines which penetrate previous low points, interrupted by rallies or increases which terminate below the high points of the preceding rally. In other words, a downtrend is a price movement consisting of a series of lower lows and lower highs.

This is simple enough but 90 percent of traders probably couldn't tell you off the top of their heads. Once we know the definition of uptrend and downtrend, we are already ahead and on our way. The next thing we need to do is to draw a trend line correctly. It becomes a game of connect the dots. Sperandeo continues:

"For an uptrend within the period of consideration, draw a line from the lowest low, up and to the highest minor low point preceding the highest high so that the line does not pass through prices in between the two low points. Extend the line upwards past the highest high point. It is possible that the line will go through prices past the highest minor high point. In fact, this is one indication of a change in trend, as will be demonstrated shortly."

"For a downtrend within the period of consideration, draw a line from the highest high point to the lowest minor high point preceding the lowest low so that the line does not pass through prices in between the two high points. Extend the line past the lowest high point downward."

Armed with the definition of uptrend and downtrend Oleman said that in his trading he would buy every dip on the way up and be wrong once at the top, whereupon prices would fail to make a higher high. And on a downtrend, he would sell every rally and be wrong once at the bottom when it would fail to make a lower low. How much simpler could it be? It sure beat what I had seen being done by the desk traders and retail clients all around me, namely, buying every lower low trying to catch the bottom and then shorting each higher high to try to get a top. These people were trading their egos. I thought it would be a good idea to just trade like Forrest Gump and make money instead. I did not press him further for he had parted with a real gem. He did say something about using Average True Range. I did not think it was right for me to ask for more handouts. It was time for me to find a way to employ this fundamental truth. The secret was so simple and so correct. I had indeed missed the "Forrest" by getting too close to the trees."

Feedback?

cpo
 
Originally posted by profitseer
becaue I'm not trying to determine if prices are trending. If I wanted to do that, I would just draw a trendline. That's what trendlines are for.

I want to determine if the current price is higher or lower than the average price has been. That's what moving averages tell you.

It's not my fault trendlines don't tell you the average price and averages don't tell you if the highs are lower, I didn't invent either trendlines or moving averages. I just try to use the right tool for the job.
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No mechanical trading and no "system" profitseer.

cpo
 
The thread is trending again. :p

browneqt.jpg
 
Originally posted by dbphoenix
Has somebody decided whether it's about trends or about moving averages?
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I think it's about the experience of trend riding. If you have anything to post about it, feel free to. By the way, thanks for your contributions dbphoenix.

cpo
 
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