Well how is anyone supposed to trade profitably if we're just guessing with 50% accuracy about a trends direction?
Why not just flip a coin then.
1) Don't trade via TA alone without market context and don't trade TA alone without a proper trading plan. So far in this thread you have
not said anything about market context and you have
not said anything about a trading plan. Yet, you have mentioned how a
hypothetical trade would have resulted in a loss.
Simply, if you're going to discuss trades or how something would have been a loser/winner...you should at least mentioned the market context and trading plan involved.
2) Trendline breaks are not trade signals all by themselves. You need a trade signal. Thus, if that trade signal doesn't appear when that trendline breaks...it ain't no trade. Just the same, if there's no trendline break when your trade signal appears...it ain't no trade.
3) Learn the difference between trend continuation trading versus trend reversal trading and then make a decision
prior to entry about which type of trading the trade will be to improve your trade management after entry.
4) Trade Management after entry is critical. Therefore, minimize your losses on losing trades and let your winners run so that your profits on winners are larger than your losses on losers. Simply, don't make the mistake of
only talking about how you enter a trade. Thus, put the exact same emphasis on your exits or more.
Map out your destination prior to departure to prevent getting lost/confused.
All the above will get you above the 50% accuracy on most trading days and will help you to be profitable on other trading days when you're near that 50% or a little less.
P.S. Don't forget the price action area of your losing trades whenever they involved a
key change in supply/demand. The price area of those types of losing trades pack a
wealth of information and can be still exploited later in trading as support/resistance areas if/when the price action returns to that price area.
