Trend Question (examples)

[ironchef]

Are you sure you know where to do the first short..let alone adding to it!

You will find from your answers that very few actually know how to identify the best trend to follow..and even fewer know how to trade same!

Price can only move 3 ways..but depending on your desired objective..the 3 ways can overlap..the key is your "desired" objective!

I don't think OP understands or appreciates what you are trying to tell him/her. Took me days upon days of staring at real time charts after charts after charts.... to finally get a small victory: Finding something that works for me, for now.

For example

https://www.tradingview.com/x/NWigWNhP/ < This is an uptrend.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZawQeW0e/ < However this is a downtrend on lower time frame. I can short since I trade on lower time frame like hourly, but where do I know when to stop shorting?

I assume you are new to trading, if not my apology and you can ignore my post.

If I were you, I would start looking at real time charts and after a while, you may find something that could work for you or you may not.

What I found is that each stock has its own personality, so to be profitable, I have to know each one well, like my own kids.

Others who are experts in TA or chart reading may laugh at me for saying that, to them a chart is a chart, no need to know the company and they just need TA to figure out what to do. I cannot do it for every stocks.

Good luck to you.

 

[learner2007]

they just need TA to figure out what to do. I cannot do it for every stocks.

Try this: DO NOT try to apply TA (or what it is you use) to all or any given charts. Doing so will cause you to see what's not there. Instead, consider only those charts where the TA indication jumps out at you like something in a 3D movie.

 

[ironchef]

Try this: DO NOT try to apply TA (or what it is you use) to all or any given charts. Doing so will cause you to see what's not there. Instead, consider only those charts where the TA indication jumps out at you like something in a 3D movie.

Thank you for your coaching. Very good points. Indeed, that was what happened to the few cases that worked for me. I will remember, be selective, be patient and wait for the correct moment.

Regards,

 

[Jeffro72]

Well what u discovered is that u need the definition of the trend which must include how to determine the time period in which the trend is occurring ( and therefore which to use), as well as the clear ruled that indicate where and when the trend starts and ends.

One should never open the chart and define the trend on it, one should define the trend and then find the chart with the period that most fits the definition. That's how u find different trends in different time periods.

^well said.

 

[Jeffro72]

Keep in mind, the markets are a fractal with an infinite (or almost infinite) amount of scales (timeframes). That means a small down turn might be the noise of a large up trend as you showed in your example.

 

[bone]

If you truly want to get your arms around a legitimate long term trend - use WEEKLY data.

 

[MrScalper]

Try this: DO NOT try to apply TA (or what it is you use) to all or any given charts. Doing so will cause you to see what's not there. Instead, consider only those charts where the TA indication jumps out at you like something in a 3D movie.

I think you are right..but.. you are also wrong!

If something jumps out at you..by definition..it is easy to see it..which means..others can also see it..a typical example can be a test of S or R line..or a break of the line..or a break and retreat back into the range..or a so on and so forth!

Nothing new here..just plain old TA stuff..so..why is it then..that..so many still get it wrong when they try!!

The funny part is..even if you tell a person a good reason as to why "they" still "get it wrong"..the person will more than likely just go off and do the same old thing over and over..how silly is that.. imagining doing the same old silly mistakes over and over..and never learning or progressing..surely there must be something very wrong..I wonder what on Earth it might be

 

[MrScalper]

Keep in mind, the markets are a fractal with an infinite (or almost infinite) amount of scales (timeframes). That means a small down turn might be the noise of a large up trend as you showed in your example.

No thank You.. absolutely no need to delve into fractals..or any such stuff that really has no substance in relation to successful trading or investing!

"there can be more value in the blink of an eye, than in months of rational analysis"

A would be trader / investor would do well to get a pair of reading glasses with the above quote etched on the inside of each glass..just to make sure he/she does not forget it!

"to be or not to be, that is the question"

Is it better to be dead..or alive..in the markets..it is always better to be alive

 

[MrScalper]

I don't think OP understands or appreciates what you are trying to tell him/her. Took me days upon days of staring at real time charts after charts after charts.... to finally get a small victory: Finding something that works for me, for now.

Do not be fooled..as it might just be unintended consequences!

Overall..you appear to be doing OK from your posts..but.. you still have a long way to go..how do I know..simple.. you are still holding GILD

A successful trading or investing plan requires a lot of detail..that must cover the most important aspects of successful trading..namely..

1. Entry (pre-defined risk)
2. Adjustment/s ( pre-defined target/s)
3. Exit ( loss / profit realization)

If one is just executing trades based off a chart alone..then..unless the strategy is very short term momentum trading..it will be very hard to make anything worth talking about!

Just remember how many idiots gave back dot com millions..and all because they were too lazy to sit down and work out a plan of action based on facts!

Price never lies..it is just the idiots clicking the mice who do so

 

[learner2007]

If something jumps out at you..by definition..it is easy to see it..which means..others can also see it.

I'd like to answer that later when I have more time. So for now I'll just write what one of the world's greatest traders once said:
"There will always be trends in the markets as long as there are people who can't read them".

Nothing new here..just plain old TA stuff..so..why is it then..that..so many still get it wrong when they try!!

Learning all you need to know about TA over the weekend, or studying TA from a comic book would certainly be two of the main reasons. In addition, just as some people are poor at learning foreign languages, or playing board games, TA can be tough for some.