Trend or Range: How to Know in Advance

[SimpleMeLike]

I'll tell you what. If you wanna butt heads with me, I'm perfectly willing to accept the challenge. I have no problem with POS like you. If that is too much, why don't you just come over to the ES Journal and we can post our trades in real time (if you can even handle it).

But more importantly, everyone knows that there is nobody on this forum who have posted more live trades than me. Just where are yours? It's laughable that you would even attempt to make fun of me.

Hello schizo,

What do you gain from posting your trades in the ES Journal?

I am not making fun of you. You posted a thread to help define trend or range, and I am trying to help you.

 

[SimpleMeLike]

I'll tell you what. If you wanna butt heads with me, I'm perfectly willing to accept the challenge [...]

You're right. Forget everything that I've said. I'm just a noob and I'm acting like a moron tonight.

Hello schizo,

Yes, of course I am right.

If you want to be an ES Futers Master, You got to be a lion man. Rather its a trend, range, dang, bang, slang, line, dot, circle, who cares, keep on eating man. Keep on hunting. Eventually you going to get something to eat.

All that matters is , at 3pm when the market close did you make money to put food on the table to eat at night.

Once you make money everyday, then you know what a trend or range or anything else is.

Eventually, you will get tired of getting eaten everyday in ES futures market, and you will turn into a lion.

But you can not be a lion or ES Futures Master if you not hunting 23 hours day or 8 hours a day when the market is open trying to make money everyday.

 

[volpri]

I see it reached the measure move. It has been clear for some time now that it is in a SPBL (small pullback bull trend). Staying mostly above the EMA. These are strong trends that just grind up. Program buying.

 

[volpri]

Look you guys schizo is just trying to show you some concepts. If he ask questions they are rhetorical in nature. He doesn’t need you to give him the answers. He knows the answers.

Just look in the bible. Jesus was the master teacher. He often taught by asking questions to get people to probe deeper.

Schizo is just trying to get you guys to “see” some ideas and concepts that he thinks are important to trading. That is all. Listen you might learn a few things! That is my suggestion to you.

 

[volpri]

And here is what continues to happen. I got to call it a night. See y'all later tomorrow morning around open.

 

[schizo]

And here is what continues to happen.

And you could easily extend the line over to the right where the breakout occurred to forecast the next target. Notice the line shifts up.

 

[volpri]

One more post. Yeah, we see the trend is flattening out some into a trading Range. So, I would use TR techniques (fading the edges) until the next successful BO takes place. TR scalping. At this point it is about 55% probability then BO will be out of the top of the TR. 45% out of the bottom. If we get 30 bars or more of sideways move in this TR then it becomes a 50/50 market that next BO can be south or can be north. That is how I see it anyway.

 

[schizo]

Remember when you asked people to take their meds before replying. Have you taken yours?

You know, you were right. I realized it was me who was going off topic. I'll try to keep my trap shut from now on with them irrelevant comments.

 

[schizo]

One more post. Yeah, we see the trend is flattening out some into a trading Range. So, I would use TR techniques (fading the edges) until the next successful BO takes place. TR scalping. At this point it is about 55% probability then BO will be out of the top of the TR. 45% out of the bottom. If we get 30 bars or more of sideways move in this TR then it becomes a 50/50 market that next BO can be south or can be north. That is how I see it anyway.

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Just wondering. Does 20 bars you use to define a range has anything to do with 20-period moving average? It does kinda click if you think from that perspective because 20 MA will look pretty damn flat at that point.

As for me, TR is more about a pullback plus another pullback, if that makes any sense. In another word, a failed BO after a pullback.

 

[Gary186]

I think the existing concepts of trend or oscillation complicate things. After a massive breakout, there is often oscillation. After oscillation lasts for some time, there is a trend. We don't need to know in advance. We only need subsequent verification to trade.
If the current candlestick is within the price range of the previous candlestick, then it is a range-bound oscillation.