Trend Harmony , Updated Results

Quote from rcanfiel:

Quote from Murray Ruggiero:

Also using stops might seem like it helps but when markets get manic like some are now ,the stops will do nothing but create large losses over repeated stop out trades.

I would not agree on this point. I have done much stoploss research (pounding many trades for a method into a spreadsheet, adjusting per margin, and cutting it off at numerous stops). It is very rare that even a disaster stop does not at least preserve, let alone increase, total profitability, with at least some reduction of time-in-market

Besides, you have at least one breathtaking string of losses in 2007, despite the "no stop loss" concept. It is not just about profitability, it is about how you got there.

Usually when someone disavows stops or profit targets, it is because there has been a lack of exhaustive research to actually see what would have happened against their own trading signals. More times than not, one or the other offers some to much improvement.

Raw exposure to the markets ignores the Risk part of the R:R equation.
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It's not that I have raw exposure the system has reversals and exits. The problem is under some market conditions that point might be very far away. For example if you system used a 20 day low, that low might be -$10,000 or more away from the current price!, an example would be in natural gas or oil during these manic times.

I have done the research and in fact am working on some new methodologies currently which are based on dynamic statistics for developing trailing stops. Remember when you develop trailing stops in a system you need to think about reentry also.

The problem is most simple methods like a 50% trailing stop or a $3000.00 money management stop might look like they help on a backtest but 2-3 years out you will see that it's either a wash or actually hurt performance.

The results I showed were based on a 1 lot of all markets. Another solution is to see what happens if we filter trades based on risk, don't take any trade which needs more than $5000.00 of risk for example. This is not a hard stop so it let's the trade do what it needs to , you just stay out of the market when things are too risky.
 
Quote from Murray Ruggiero:

I have done the research and in fact am working on some new methodologies currently which are based on dynamic statistics for developing trailing stops. Remember when you develop trailing stops in a system you need to think about reentry also.

I remember a rather clear article some years ago, when TASC or Futures tried various stop sizes and methods on the S&P. The trailing stops did no better than fixed dollar. I find trailing stops just make it more complicated, but that is my opinion.

The problem is most simple methods like a 50% trailing stop or a $3000.00 money management stop might look like they help on a backtest but 2-3 years out you will see that it's either a wash or actually hurt performance.

That is what my post above disagreed with. And it is usually not so if you look at all aspects, including being out of the market more. Another benefit of a stop, is it usually defines your risk. If you might be exposed to up to $1000 loss on a 1 lot wheat trade, a $500 fixed stop enables you to take on 2 positions, if you so desire. So if no stop trade has an expected return that is 20% greater than the $500 fixed stop (1.2x), you can take on 2 positions and be at an expected return of 2x. But when no stop, you need to account for huge per-trade DDs.
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" you just stay out of the market when things are too risky."

Murray,

That's right. Not every setup is tradeable. As Rcrancief so aptly stated it's not just the result, the journey too matters. It has to be in balance. As the system is at present I certainly could not muster up the stomach to trade it.

Thanks for posting you results. At least you are willing to backup your claims. Beats the innumerable vendors out there whose only claim to a trading system is a good copywriter.
 
stops are just a crap shoot. If you pick stops that work in the market going forward you win. But you could have picked stops that were just right for getting nailed by whipsaws.

To argue that these stops are better than ___________ is to not understand the nature of the markets.

You find stops which work. so does everyone else. every starts cheating a little bit to get out just a little sooner or on the flip side you get positioned looking for the stop run. Then everyone figures out that game and it reverses again. Markets adapt to your stops. Because they are not your stops alone.

Which is most likely why Murray is working on "stat stops" or "stat stop" (copyright 2008 JEM). Murray I will grant you a free license to use the name.
 
Quote from jem:

stops are just a crap shoot. If you pick stops that work in the market going forward you win. But you could have picked stops that were just right for getting nailed by whipsaws.

So is being completely exposed to the market WITHOUT stops. You are making a case based on opinion, without considering what happens to a person on a day like Oct 19, 1987, when s&P down some 23% in one day.

Almost all of the people on this forum work for a living. Murray's system generates signals, and people punch in trades based on that. They are not designed for scalping the market.

Putting in leveraged trades and coming home at the end of the day to see how you did WITHOUT stops is one of the most foolhardy endeavours of our time.

Again, it is not just about opimal profitability. It is about the #1 rule in trading - preserve your trading capital. And generally, well chosen stops will not not hurt profitability, enable more positions, reduce time in market, and can help ward off the occasional blowup
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Quote from rcanfiel:

Quote from jem:

stops are just a crap shoot. If you pick stops that work in the market going forward you win. But you could have picked stops that were just right for getting nailed by whipsaws.

So is being completely exposed to the market WITHOUT stops. You are making a case based on opinion, without considering what happens to a person on a day like Oct 19, 1987, when s&P down some 23% in one day.

Almost all of the people on this forum work for a living. Murray's system generates signals, and people punch in trades based on that. They are not designed for scalping the market.

Putting in leveraged trades and coming home at the end of the day to see how you did WITHOUT stops is one of the most foolhardy endeavours of our time.

Again, it is not just about opimal profitability. It is about the #1 rule in trading - preserve your trading capital. And generally, well chosen stops will not not hurt profitability, enable more positions, reduce time in market, and can help ward off the occasional blowup
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Remember it's not without stops , it stops and reverse. So , a simple channel breakout does not have any stops, it's stop is a reverse in the opposite direction at a 20 day low for example. That is protection. Trend Harmony is the same way, it has a stop and reversal.
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Quote from JaiSreeram:

How does Trend Harmony compare with the Turtle System ?
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In the current issue of Futures Truth magazine Simple Harmony is ranked number 4 in the top ten multi-market systems since release with a 81.1% return. The orginal Turtle system as release by Russell Sands and tracked by Futures Truth has only average 19.6% return since release in 1990. You can see that Simple Harmony has done much better since release than the orginal turtle system.
 
Thank you for this information, I am still deciding on what platform I want to buy, Is Trend Harmony available for TradeStation or only TradersStudio ?
 
Quote from JaiSreeram:

Thank you for this information, I am still deciding on what platform I want to buy, Is Trend Harmony available for TradeStation or only TradersStudio ?
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Trend Harmony is only available for TradersStudio.
 
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