Trend Following-Trend Commandments

Quote from marketsurfer:

Just for a point of correction--- Market Wizard author jack S does manage money...
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In the first couple of books at least he said he had a system but could never get his personal account up above $100K, etc. I don't remember him talking about managing other people's money....

Just read the jacket cover of his latest book.
You're correct, it says he's currently the co-portfolio manager for ADM Investor Services Diversified Strategies Fund.

Should we ask him if he thinks Trends exist, now that we're more impressed with his qualifications?
What about some of the famous traders he's interviewed in the other books (haven't read this one yet), should we tell them YOU know they're wrong about Trends?
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

1. yes, they exist only due to chance-- this is proven by looking at any pseudo random generated chart-- they look EXACTLY like a real stock chart complete with "trends" and all the same TA patterns. If you flip a coin 10 times and get heads 10 times, are you in a heads trend?

2. You should be cautious making these types of unfounded allegations. Mike C is a journalist and a decent writer of books. he never managed OPM or traded significant levels of capital like the folks he writes about. He doesn't have the statistical background or knowledge to talk about trend-- only about those who "say" they are trend followers.

You are a victim of hindsight and survivorship bias--- look those terms up, if you don't know what they are.

surf
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What do you think the answer is surf. Seems you're just being argumentative without giving any answers. And the statement that a random generated chart looks like a stock in a trend does not prove a correlation.
 
Quote from cactiman:

In the first couple of books at least he said he had a system but could never get his personal account up above $100K, etc. I don't remember him talking about managing other people's money....

Just read the jacket cover of his latest book.
You're correct, it says he's currently the co-portfolio manager for ADM Investor Services Diversified Strategies Fund.

Should we ask him if he thinks Trends exist, now that we're more impressed with his qualifications?
What about some of the famous traders he's interviewed in the other books (haven't read this one yet), should we tell them YOU know they're wrong about Trends?
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I'm already name checked in all of Covel's books and talked to wizard jack regarding an investment several times. I know the folks you read about in books-- most don't believe trends exist or can be defined including trend legend Ed seykota.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

I'm already name checked in all of Covel's books and talked to wizard jack regarding an investment several times. I know the folks you read about in books-- most don't believe trends exist or can be defined including trend legend Ed seykota.
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Dave and I are friends. He is not a troll. Just misguided :-)
 
Quote from cactiman:

P.S.
And for all these DICKS on this thread, who are saying Trends don't exist, and are harassing you, etc.
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Thanks for the defense, but it is quite alright if folks want to rip me or my work.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

He doesn't have the statistical background or knowledge to talk about trend-- only about those who "say" they are trend followers.
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That is not accurate, but it is the joy of ET where anything can be said and anything goes.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

Mark to market accounting is how drawdowns are calculated without exiting-- among other ways.
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Positions are not held forever. You know your exits before you enter. If markets whipsaw you get in/out/in/out and those small losses add up to equal DD. Not breaking new ground here...
 
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