Trend Following-Trend Commandments

Quote from Peternam:

Did he answer that question ?
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Trend following for success involves 5 issues:

-selecting a portfolio.
-entering a market.
-exiting a market with a loss.
-exiting a market with a gain.
-finding an appropriate bet for each trade.

There is no predicting trend timing or trend length. After an exit, across a diversified portfolio, you will be left with an assortment of measurable trends.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

Trends don't exist and here's some anecdotal evidence:

A colleque shared the data with me--- shhhh!

Trend following kingpin Dunn is down 4% this month and 14% for the year. He obviously guessed wrong on direction and is hoping. Trend following is nothing but buy/ sell and hope. Otherwise Dunn wouldn't have this huge drawdown. I bet he is finished.
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And what is your ROE from trading YTD?
 
Quote from Trend Following:

Trend following for success involves 5 issues:

-selecting a portfolio.
-entering a market.
-exiting a market with a loss.
-exiting a market with a gain.
-finding an appropriate bet for each trade.

There is no predicting trend timing or trend length. After an exit, across a diversified portfolio, you will be left with an assortment of measurable trends.
More...

Since Dunn is down 4% just this month and 14% for the year, he clearly doesn't exit nor follow the other rules. Imagine reading the trend book(s) getting psyched and investing with Dunn as of jan1 2012... That would suck!

surf
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

Since Dunn is down 4% just this month and 14% for the year, he clearly doesn't exit nor follow the other rules. Imagine reading the trend book(s) getting psyched and investing with Dunn as of jan1 2012... That would suck!

surf
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Why do you say he doesn't exit? A DD is precisely due to exiting.
 
Quote from Trend Following:

Thanks!
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P.S.
And for all these DICKS on this thread, who are saying Trends don't exist, and are harassing you, etc. I have 2 questions:

1. What do you call all those lower left to upper right formations on chart after chart I look at everyday? How did those patterns form, by total random chance?

2. This man has written several books, started a company, built a website, done podcasts with lots of great traders, made a documentary film, and sponsored this very Forum on which you make all your snide little remarks, from your safe dark little closets, from behind your shiny little computer screens....
And you guys have DONE WHAT exactly?

Sorry Michael, I know you don't need anyone to defend you, and you know the difference between DOERS and CRITICS, and you can handle these people on your own - but I can't stand SNOTTY TROLLS!!!
:mad:
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

Since Dunn is down 4% just this month and 14% for the year, he clearly doesn't exit nor follow the other rules. Imagine reading the trend book(s) getting psyched and investing with Dunn as of jan1 2012... That would suck!

surf
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Wouldn't suck as much as investing with Victor Neiderhoffer at ANY point and losing ALL of your money. Not once.....TWICE.


Nice cherry picking job Surf. What about the people who invested in Dunn in Jan 2008 and saw something like an 80% return that year. Or what about the people who have been with him in the long run since inception and are up a ton?

You are such a moron Surf. Really. You look at people who are beyond successful, the kings of the industry and when they have their first drawdown you say "What if people got in right before the drawdown? "

Seriously...you have zero credibility and continue to show your lack of any trading knowledge every time you post.


Rules ? You are talking about following rules. That's hilarious You shorted a stock that is up now over 20% from where you got in and have no idea when to take the loss.

You are a buffoon of the highest order.
 
Quote from cactiman:

P.S.
And for all these DICKS on this thread, who are saying Trends don't exist, and are harassing you, etc. I have 2 questions:

1. What do you call all those lower left to upper right formations on chart after chart I look at everyday? How did those patterns form, by total random chance?

2. This man has written several books, started a company, built a website, done podcasts with lots of great traders, made a documentary film, and sponsored this very Forum on which you make all your snide little remarks, from your safe dark little closets, from behind your shiny little computer screens....
And you guys have DONE WHAT exactly?

Sorry Michael, I know you don't need anyone to defend you, and you know the difference between DOERS and CRITICS, and you can handle these people on your own - but I can't stand SNOTTY TROLLS!!!
:mad:
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1. yes, they exist only due to chance-- this is proven by looking at any pseudo random generated chart-- they look EXACTLY like a real stock chart complete with "trends" and all the same TA patterns. If you flip a coin 10 times and get heads 10 times, are you in a heads trend?

2. You should be cautious making these types of unfounded allegations. Mike C is a journalist and a decent writer of books. he never managed OPM or traded significant levels of capital like the folks he writes about. He doesn't have the statistical background or knowledge to talk about trend-- only about those who "say" they are trend followers.

You are a victim of hindsight and survivorship bias--- look those terms up, if you don't know what they are.

surf
 
Quote from Trend Following:

Why do you say he doesn't exit? A DD is precisely due to exiting.
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Mark to market accounting is how drawdowns are calculated without exiting-- among other ways.
 
1. (Surf) yes, they exist only due to chance-- this is proven by looking at any pseudo random generated chart-- they look EXACTLY like a real stock chart complete with "trends" and all the same TA patterns. If you flip a coin 10 times and get heads 10 times, are you in a heads trend?
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Humbug. Trends and stock charts are built on human nature (greed, fear, boredom, memories of past price levels) and price action via auctioning/supply and demand techniques (bid the price up, sell the price down).
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2. (Surf) You should be cautious making these types of unfounded allegations. Mike C is a journalist and a decent writer of books. he never managed OPM or traded significant levels of capital like the folks he writes about. He doesn't have the statistical background or knowledge to talk about trend-- only about those who "say" they are trend followers.
You are a victim of hindsight and survivorship bias--- look those terms up, if you don't know what they are.
----------------------------------------------------
I don't recall him claiming to have done what the people he writes about and/or interviews have done. Just like Jack Schwager doesn't make that claim.
None of those traders/fund managers put it all together in books for us to read. The interviewer authors did. Different skills.
Do you think authors who write biographies about famous people are the same as the people they write about?
They're normally dedicated admirers who want to spread the word.

I'm not any kind of victim, and I'm not stupid.
Anyone who actually trades knows trends exist in all time frames, and you can use them to help you make money.
They've experienced it in real life, so they know it's a truth.
If you have some quant/statistical coin-flip theory disproving trends, all you have is a load of pseudo-science b.s.
 
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