Trend Following-Trend Commandments

Quote from Rodney King:

"Follow" == "invested in"? If so, congrats. But in any case, unless you have some methodology for selecting <i>specific</i> TFs ahead of time, the discussion would more fruitfully focus on the standard industry indexes.
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Trend Followers generally all have very similar results. Some are more volatile than others. Standard index results are highly correlated with the ones I follow. Not sure what your point is.

Anyways....my point is to say that their days are over (like Surf always likes to hint) is ridiculous. Like every other strategy out there, there are ups and downs. In the long run, TF's have way outperformed indexes. Both historically and recently. They always will.
 
Quote from EPrado:

This is flat out wrong as TF's have had big gains throughout 2000-2010.
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From year-end '99 to present, Barclay's CTA Index (BARCCTA INDEX on B'berg, if you want to look it up) is up 85%. That's a compounded 6%/year over 10.5 years. Whether that's a "big gain" is a matter of terminology, I guess. And some part of the return is attributable to interest income, per others' comments on this thread.
 
Whoa, what great risks for such little reward.

It's time for the trend followers to throw in the towel. Most of them are quite elderly, anyway, I think.

Surf:D

PS. Maybe we will see a trendfollowers reunion tour like the band Styx or REO speedwagon. Led by the banjo player with MC reading the way it was poems...
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

Whoa, what great risks for such little reward.

It's time for the trend followers to throw in the towel. Most of them are quite elderly, anyway, I think.

Surf:D
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Shouldn't you be on a honeymoon or something?

Great risks for such little reward? Please explain this ridiculous comment. These guys have winning yrs that dwarf their losing years.

What would you rather have. A string of small winning yrs followed by a a complete meltdown. You know. Like Neiderhoffer did twice.

I love how you praise a guy who lost everything twice, and got run out of the business due to blowing up his fund......TWICE. But trash guys with 20-30 yrs continuing success.

Then throw in comments about guys being too old to still be in the biz.

newsflash...these old time TF's are old/still in the biz because of huge success.

Do you realize how ridiculous you sound ?

I would chalk it up to being"drunk" on your new marriage......but you are a like a broken record with this nonsense.
 
Quote from ProfLogic:

They wouldn't refill his Viagra prescription in Canada. One pill a month is his limit.
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He needs to be on pills alright. Ones that keep him from talking out his ass at times.
 
TFs definitely have performance to admire, but there is another benefit not discussed so much in these days of regular bubbles and bubbles bursting: protection.

Right now the vast majority of market participants only reflate after a bubble pops with Fed guidance. At some point it's hard to imagine that they can keep everyone happy. At some point the cleansing bath will arrive.

There is only one strategy built around taking advantage of that next unexpected surprise, that next bubble popping: trend following.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

Do not the blackswan trading methods popularized by NT also capitalize on bubble bursts and unexpected events?

Surf
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What's the difference? Instrument choice?
 
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