Trend Following-Trend Commandments

Quote from marketsurfer:

Nice going! Its super funny reading these no name aliases slamming the book on elite
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Taleb offers in his new book:

A good foe is far more loyal, far more predictable, and, to the clever, far more useful than the most valuable admirer.
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The question here: are they really good even? Bottom line, anyone who lives their life in daily anonymous communication has their insecurities on full display.
 
Quote from Trend Following:

Taleb offers in his new book:



The question here: are they really good even? Bottom line, anyone who lives their life in daily anonymous communication has their insecurities on full display.
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Good points. Particullarly the very sarcastic and negative anonymous haters on thus site.

Everyone knows who we are, wonder what they are afraid of?

Surf
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

...wonder what they are afraid of?
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p. 180 of Trend Commandments:

fight.jpg


Note: Shout to 'Matrix'; footnoted in book.
 
Quote from Gabfly1:

So has anyone here yet read this latest Gospel according to St. Mike? Do tell. I so wish to be saved. Judging by the reviews on Amazon, paper was no object.
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Yes it's quite different than his previous works. Lots of wisdom distilled in the latest book.

I for one learned about Grantham-- a trader I was not aware of with a most excellent strategy that I know a little about :D Read the book, make a comment --- throwing stones from sidelines and amazon slams is unseemly.

Two thumbs up from the surf shack'
 
Quote from Ash1972:

2007 and 2008 were great years for TF. Has it suddenly become crowded in the last couple of years?
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I could explain asset flows and AUM to you, but I suspect I'd be wasting my breath.
 
Quote from Rodney King:

I could explain asset flows and AUM to you, but I suspect I'd be wasting my breath.
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Yes, because asset flows and AUM are ENTIRELY NEW PHENOMENA that have only started applying to TF since 2009, right? :)

Try looking at some history before you get smart. 2000 to 2003 were great years for TF which were followed by several lackluster ones prior to 2007. The total AUM in TF has been shooting up for pretty much the whole of the last 10 years.

Your asset flow argument means what exactly? If you're saying a lot of money moves into TF immediately before a period of poor performance and vice versa then yes, you have grasped that some herding investors have discovered trend following.
 
Quote from Rodney King:

Note to self: contumelious + stupid == ignore.
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Instead of storming off in a huff, can you not explain your argument a little better? You're saying that TF performance is declining due to an increase in AUM (at least I think you're saying that).

The point is TF has always had a mixture of good and mediocre years whether total assets were less than a billion or over 100bn. The long term performance has not measurably changed.
 
Quote from Rodney King:

TF is crowded these days, like all manna-from-heaven strategies, because institutional investors are afraid of stocks -- they remember 2008 -- and interest rates are zero, so investors are desperate for some kind of return. That's why TF isn't working this year. I do think TFs will have a positive return over time, but I much doubt we'll ever again see the golden days of the 70s and 80s, when there was lots of dumb money in the markets, and only a few small TFs to take advantage of it.
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Just found this post which is almost staggering in its sheer ignorance. At least bother to read or find out SOMETHING about TF before expressing sage opinions on it.
 
Quote from Ash1972:

Just found this post which is almost staggering in its sheer ignorance. At least bother to read or find out SOMETHING about TF before expressing sage opinions on it.
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Rod makes good sense, What am I missing?
 
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