Trend Following "SUPER FUND" down

[makloda]

Quote from marketsurfer:

i am interested in scientific tests and third party verification before i change my mind about what seems obvious to me.

Search for scientific articles on "momentum profits" -- yes, BUYING STRENGTH and SELLING WEAKNESS, Surf! Buying/selling momentum = Trendfollowing. This is a hot topic in finance science community since the 80s since it directly disputes the strong efficient market hypothesis (from the 60s and 70s).

Attachment: "A Momentum Trading Strategy Based on the Low Frequency Component of the Exchange Rate"

Quote: The existence of momentum – or positive serial correlation – in short horizon financial asset returns has been firmly established in the academic literature. In the foreign exchange market, momentum in spot exchange rates has been widely exploited in trading strategies used by currency fund managers and commodity trading advisors.

Your turn, Surf. Post some credible evidence supporting your personal bias, none of that Yahoo or Tradingmarkets mumbo jumbo typically written by failed retail traders peddling newsletter subscriptions.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from Thunderdog:

Surf, as a matter of comparison, how has VN's most recent performance compared to that of the trend funds? Are his methods "fatally flawed," or do they just look that way?

To set the record straight, VN is not a trend follower and in fact is on the enemy list of such groups ( practical speculation )

I have no ideas about VN's recent performance other than what was diseminated in the press.

VN's method is solid, it appears that VN himself has a fatal flaw as a money manager despite his massive success.

hope this clarifies. time to hit the beach

 

[EPrado]

Quote from marketsurfer:

To set the record straight, VN is not a trend follower and in fact is on the enemy list of such groups ( practical speculation )

I have no ideas about VN's recent performance other than what was diseminated in the press.

VN's method is solid, it appears that VN himself has a fatal flaw as a money manager despite his massive success.

hope this clarifies. time to hit the beach

VN's method is solid ?

Final nail in your coffin Surf. Selling puts is one of the worst strategies out there. I know of many traders over the years who like VN, blew out. The fact that you think this strategy is solid speaks volumes about your lack of trading knowldge.


It's rather funny how every person that replies to you thinks you are clueless. Guys like you and VN who do scientific testing and crunch numbers are usually HORRENDOUS traders.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from EPrado:

VN's method is solid ?

Final nail in your coffin Surf. Selling puts is one of the worst strategies out there. I know of many traders over the years who like VN, blew out. The fact that you think this strategy is solid speaks volumes about your lack of trading knowldge.


It's rather funny how every person that replies to you thinks you are clueless. Guys like you and VN who do scientific testing and crunch numbers are usually HORRENDOUS traders.

the method is solid if one applies correct money management. VN is simply too aggressive with it, in my opinion.

time for beach and food..... take care, surf

 

[makloda]

Quote from marketsurfer:the method is solid if one applies correct money management.

And trend following is not, even if one applies correct money management?

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from makloda:

And trend following is not, even if one applies correct money management?

no edge in knowing the past trend.

how about guessing randomly direction and applying correct money management? what's the difference between that and the marketing term "trend following" ?

 

[EPrado]

Quote from marketsurfer:

no edge in knowing the past trend.

how about guessing randomly direction and applying correct money management? what's the difference between that and the marketing term "trend following" ?

What's the difference between guessing random direction and using mean reversion ? Just because a mkt goes 1, 1.5, 2.0 standard deviations doesnt mean it will come back. I guess there is no edge in selling tops buying bottoms as well.

 

[EPrado]

Quote from marketsurfer:

no edge in knowing the past trend.

how about guessing randomly direction and applying correct money management? what's the difference between that and the marketing term "trend following" ?

So let me get this straight. Lets say Gold is in a huge bull mkt. I sit two traders down. One I give a daily chart to, and one I give nothing to. Are you telling me the guy with the chart/idea where the mkt has been has no edge over the guy with nothing ?


If you say yes, continue to not trade your own money. You will be saving yourself a lot of losses.

 

[Pekelo]

Quote from marketsurfer:

no edge in knowing the past trend.

I thought VN's edge was knowing that the market is bullish over long time, thus selling puts would work, well, most of the time.

Thus your fav money manager contradicts your idea...

P.S.: Why am I in this thread?

 

[ProfLogic]

Quote from Pekelo:

I thought VN's edge was knowing that the market is bullish over long time, thus selling puts would work, well, most of the time.

Thus your fav money manager contradicts your idea...

P.S.: Why am I in this thread?

Because of your ability to add a common sense response.