Trend Following Strategies

[expiated]

You know what that answer will cause people to think don't you? They'll think you're hiding the fact your system doesn't work and you are not a profitable trader.

Very true, but that's quite alright with me. Besides, I've called many of my trades in advance, stating ahead of time in which direction I would be going and at what levels I would be looking to enter and exit my positions; then posting live images as soon as I did so, in real time.

Supposedly, the purpose of this website is, at least in part, "to have meaningful conversations to help each other learn faster." Accordingly, I try to offer as much information as I'm comfortable sharing about what has worked for me in the hope that it might possibly help at least one other person find what works for them.

Fretting over whether everyone or even the majority of people believe I can trade with some measure of success is just not an issue for me. I don't feel I have anything to prove unless I'm going to ask someone to pay me money—which I'm not going to do.

 

[birdman]

Price below a certain moving average was a good idea, I tried it, it doesn't synchronize well with my system.

Keep in mind there are many MA combinations and the best one may be determined by what time frame is on your chart. For example when trading a 1 minute chart and using a MA 10, if i switch to a tick chart which has about 12 to 15 bars per minute, then a MA 50 slope will be closer to matching the MA 10 on a 1 minute chart. So you may want to experiment with lots of different settings.

 

[deaddog]

I am trading stocks and the average holding period is 35 days. Yours?

I also swing trade stocks. (Long only)
I exit on a break of the trend line. (Let the winners run)
The longer I hold a stock, the wider the gap between where I exit and the recent high.
I will exit part of a position if the stock goes parabolic. (sell into strenght)
I will re-enter a position higher than I sold if the price turns around but with a tight stop.
You might also consider selling part of your position at a certain percentage above your entry price.

 

[Sergio123]

I don't believe in relying purely on mechanical strategies.

The market has been trending higher for 2 months. It's overbought. A mechanical strategy may have gotten you shaken out on Wednesday afternoon.

Figure out a good time to exit based upon seasonality, and tax considerations. Think like a fund manager who trades securities for wealthy clients.

 

[taowave]

A mechanical system on daily timeframe MAY have gotten you in SPY around 425 and NOT shaken you out on Wednesday...

Think like a wealthy client who became wealthy by being his own funds manager

 

[tomkat22]

Supposedly, the purpose of this website is, at least in part, "to have meaningful conversations to help each other learn faster."

But you sure weren't willing to "help" the OP by even mentioning what MA or timeframe you trade.

 

[schizo]

Why overcomplicate things? Just use this as your trading template.

 

[MarkBrown]

from the beginning of a trend it is diminishing in value and reverting to the mean

 

[Zwaen]

That is the question for me. Sometimes, I am late in identifying when the trend has reversed, and that takes away a good chunk of my profits.

I guess you are trying to find an optimum here. I have the same 'problem' and stick to a very very (dumb & dumber?) simple trailing sl, a ma 200. Keep in mind this is swing trading based. Very slow yes, but I think for retail it is best to focus on the larger moves, less manipulation and transaction costs, if one will have a chance. Just could not find anything better. Percentage, volatility based, SR (real or imagined) based, Kalman..I think the market is just to efficiënt for that. In the same way it doesn't matter much if you buy/sell an option 0 or x% itm/otm*, it just alters your returns distribution. In that view it doesn't matter which one you choose and it is best to choose one (or multiple/combinations) that fit your style and patience or ADD profile.

*Ofcourse it matters and the 4-5 option pro's will laugh at this, just talking retail trading here.

I did however once wrote a simple python script which tested different ma's for 1000 stocks over a lot of years. It just showed the old adagium 'let your winners run' come true

 

[ph1l]

But you sure weren't willing to "help" the OP by even mentioning what MA or timeframe you trade.

He uses "baseline" to refer to his moving average lengths.

what Patrick (VP) of No Nonsense Forex calls the baseline—what I conceptualize as the day-to-day moving average.

So, his moving average periods are 16-minute, 8-minute, 80-minute, 20-minute, 27-minute, 1.7-minute, 34-minute, 8.5-minute, 6-day, 16-hour, 4-month, 8-hour, 70-minute, etc. -- and those are just on page 1 of 46 pages of his posts with "baseline" in them!