Trend Following Research

Quote from marketsurfer:

I am in the book, so I am well versed in its content. In addition to actively placing capital with funds-- I know a little. I agree, it's a good book.

While there is a very short term edge ( less than 7 days time) when buying stocks that have pulled back, extensive studies on literally 10000's of trades have clearly shown no edge exists with this tactic over the longer term used in "trend following".

Now if you insist that every tic is a trend like a popular guru type on this board does, there is really no sense in chatting.

I disagree with your statements and definitions. Definitions are definitions regardless of whom espouses them. Regards. Surf
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I hope you aren't hanging your hat on being referenced in a book?
In regards to your referencing "extensive studies" showing no edge on buying or selling pull backs in longer term upswings or downturns in a market, please post a link to those studies. Your research and statement is inaccurate again.
Saying that every tic is a trend is as foolhardy and idiotic as saying that trend following means to buy highs and sell lows. Any "guru" or anyone else for that matter that would make a statement like that is certifiable.
With a nickname like "marketsurfer" I would expect you to know how to negotiate a wave. It is obvious that is not the case but clearly the opposite.
Your friend EMGLOBAL is a wave rider, maybe you ought to take some lessons. We've ridden some of the some water there in south Texas. Riding the waves in the ocean is identical to riding a chart. You either learn negotiate the water or it wins. You aren't smarter than the water my friend but you sure act like it.
 
Quote from Neenisti:

I hope you aren't hanging your hat on being referenced in a book?
In regards to your referencing "extensive studies" showing no edge on buying or selling pull backs in longer term upswings or downturns in a market, please post a link to those studies. Your research and statement is inaccurate again.
Saying that every tic is a trend is as foolhardy and idiotic as saying that trend following means to buy highs and sell lows. Any "guru" or anyone else for that matter that would make a statement like that is certifiable.
With a nickname like "marketsurfer" I would expect you to know how to negotiate a wave. It is obvious that is not the case but clearly the opposite.
Your friend EMGLOBAL is a wave rider, maybe you ought to take some lessons. We've ridden some of the some water there in south Texas. Riding the waves in the ocean is identical to riding a chart. You either learn negotiate the water or it wins. You aren't smarter than the water my friend but you sure act like it.
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Of course not, simply letting you know I know a little more about this biz than you may believe. Although , I still have lots to learn

I'm not allowed to post any links under warnings of being immediately and forever banished from this site. Please see Larry Connors " how markets really work" to access his work on the slight short term edge available in pullbacks but not in the longer term.
Regards. Surf
 
Quote from Neenisti:

Thanks for the link.
So marketsurfer is Dave Goodboy, huh.
That reference and $5 will buy someone a Starbucks trenta coffee "flavor of the day" and still have some change left for a tip. What's his paypal account and I'lll send it to him. That way he will get the true value of the listing.
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Aint that the truth.

:D Any friend of ER is a friend of mine. :D. Although I still disagree with you on the value of trends prior to entry.

Have a great weekend,

Surf
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

Of course not, simply letting you know I know a little more about this biz than you may believe. Although , I still have lots to learn

I'm not allowed to post any links under warnings of being immediately and forever banished from this site. Please see Larry Connors " how markets really work" to access his work on the slight short term edge available in pullbacks but not in the longer term.
Regards. Surf
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Thanks but I'm familiar with that book and with Conor Sen as well. The flaw in their "quant" finding was the extremely small size of their data set.
It would be like polling everyone in Iowa on the number of bars in Manhattan with the expectation of getting an accurate answer.
 
Quote from Neenisti:

Thanks but I'm familiar with that book and with Conor Sen as well. The flaw in their "quant" finding was the extremely small size of their data set.
It would be like polling everyone in Iowa on the number of bars in Manhattan with the expectation of getting an accurate answer.
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Well, truthfully, I have heard the same argument made against quant trading as a whole due to the small data set of the entire accessible history of recorded trades in comparison to other fields of science.

As a manhattan denzien I dont believe you would get an accurate answer to that question polling manhatanites either.

Regards

Surf:D
 
Quote from marketsurfer:
Quote from kut2k2:

So how do you trade?
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Prediction and anticipation of sequential moves. Please see the surf report for evidence of how it's done. No "trend following" here. I guess "trend riding" could be appropriate term for my style, but trends only exist in the past so it's really the wrong word.
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"Trend following", "trend riding". Sounds like arguing over to-MAY-to or to-MAH-to. You have a semantics problem. :D

BTW if you're trying to <s>follow</s> ride a trend and if trends exist only in the past (:D), isn't that like trying to ride a dead horse?

Here's my definition of trend following: buy strength (positive momenta) and sell weakness (negative momenta). It has NOTHING to do with buying higher highs or selling lower lows. As to how one measures momentum, that too is a personal choice and one I won't be disclosing myself.
 
Quote from kut2k2:

...BTW if you're trying to <s>follow</s> ride a trend and if trends exist only in the past (:D), isn't that like trying to ride a dead horse?
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Okay, that was inspired.
 
Quote from Rodney King:

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=covel+goodboy+trend+following
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"This is an excellent book that I highly recommend...No, there are no secrets in it, but it's extremely well written and contains many nuggets of knowledge from a multitude of top traders. I enjoyed it more than the Market Wizard books. It earned a spot in my 10 all-time favorite trading books."
Dave Goodboy

http://www.trendfollowing.com/endorsements.html

Okay, since you know him so well, apart from his endorsement of the book Trend Following, what was marketsurfer's actual contribution to its content?
 
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