Trend Following
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Go re-read his last sentence. Do we have to pull out the dictionary?
Trend Following Research
- Thread starter Trend Following
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Go re-read his last sentence. Do we have to pull out the dictionary?
Many market gurus, cult leaders and psychics use this same tactic. I'm surprised the sophisticated folks on this site don't get this obvious fact....
Another thing I learned is just because someone is wealthy from the market, doesn't mean they are smarter or even know more than you or I About the market or anything else. Money doesn't discriminate.
Trend Following
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I only posted his quotation cause it was true. No other reason.
There is no trend 'now'.
Trend exists between some defined point A and B.
Figure a way to measure between A and B.
Figure a way once it is measured -- to profit from it.
Arguing against that, which is all his line says, is bizarre to me.
Zeno's arrow paradox
dx = v * dt
integrating both sides:
S dx = S v*dt
x = S v*dt
If the trend is composed of current price, and current price has no trend because its one point in time by itself , than we conclude each price exists by itself in a fixed interval of time (which can be infinitely small) and therefore trends do not exist.--(lol)
By comparing the current price to the price point in the past we can determine trends..
Current price > Reference = Up trend
Current price < Reference = Down Trend
it takes 2 price points to determine the trend (duh)
kut2k is right , Seykota over-philosophies at times...
I dunno why I even posted this, what the heck is the point?, we should instead be posting some Donchian studies or something.
Mr Covel, do you have any papers on Donchian?, I have tried to search online for his letters etc, but only found his rules. I am sure you got some stuff on the father of trend following.
newsletter Commodity Trend Timing?
articles Trend Following Methods in Commodity Price Analysis.?
dx = v * dt
integrating both sides:
S dx = S v*dt
x = S v*dt
If the trend is composed of current price, and current price has no trend because its one point in time by itself , than we conclude each price exists by itself in a fixed interval of time (which can be infinitely small) and therefore trends do not exist.--(lol)
By comparing the current price to the price point in the past we can determine trends..
Current price > Reference = Up trend
Current price < Reference = Down Trend
it takes 2 price points to determine the trend (duh)
kut2k is right , Seykota over-philosophies at times...
I dunno why I even posted this, what the heck is the point?, we should instead be posting some Donchian studies or something.
Mr Covel, do you have any papers on Donchian?, I have tried to search online for his letters etc, but only found his rules. I am sure you got some stuff on the father of trend following.
newsletter Commodity Trend Timing?
articles Trend Following Methods in Commodity Price Analysis.?
It is very important to recognize the mistakes in Seykota's statement.
The main clues are found in the Behavioral Finance piece just below the Introduction on the home page of Behavioral Finance.
It is really important to NOT do trend following and do trend monitoring and Analysis. It this effort, time is NOt the independent variable. What IS the independent variable is "events". Of the two classes, one has duration in terms of time; the other does not.
Events form trends. Events follow a specific invariant order of events.
Thus, through trend monitoring and analysis you know three things:
1. What is happening in the Present;
2. What is next in the order of events; and
3. How fast (in time) events are changing.
I don't care about others views nor judge those people because I practice trend monitoring and analysis well beyond the limits of the belief systems of any on ET (vendors, like Covel or retailers). Trend following never was my practice; my orientation is extracting the market's offer.
When the event named "continuing" is going on (measurably) I hold to take the full offer from the market; when the event named "change" has its brief moment (measurably), I reverse to be on the correct side of the market's upcoming "continuing". All events has prescribed pre and post measurable characteristics.
Hence I espouse a pattern: B2B 2R 2B for long profit segments and R2R 2B 2R for short profit segments.
Covel correctly calls this "gibberish" and he calls Seykota precise, etc. because he has a permanent problem. I do not have Covel's or others' problem(s).
Trend following "research" is a mistaken quest.
As I have said before, I have no interest in whether a person likes me or my chosen trading persuasion. What I do proves Seykota and Covel and others with like views are incorrect in their views.
Indeed, behavior is what causes trends, volume measures the degree, time measures the intensity, nothing more, nothing less.
http://www.behaviouralfinance.net/psychology-of-successful-investing.pdf
What are R2R and 2B stand for??
I like you jack, but that's a WILD statement, if you really think trend following is shit, why you on this thread??
Yah sure introducing fundamentals and ROC and volume analysis could probably enhance Pure Price action trend following system, but since TA was first practiced Trend Following has consistently produced good results.
Huh? Behavior or capital causes "trends" ?
How do you know how those with market moving capital are going to behave?
Please read winner take all by Gallacher for more details
Trend only matters after the directional entry.
Still awaiting real time calls based on trend idea.
I have been providing calls on surf report without any acknowledgement of trend.
Fortunate so far y dont you or your team post a few? keep it simple and keep clear of those who speak in riddles and uri geller types. Real time calls only discount all else Thanks