Trend Following Research

Quote from marketsurfer:

...Seykota says that trends don't exist objectively therefore are subjective...
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No. You said that. You are the one who foolishly concluded that having one's own definition of a trend is necessarily subjective.

You have been having, and losing, this debate here on ET for years. Years. Yet you don't appear to recognize your ongoing defeat. Which brings us to the bigger question: Surf, are you well and truly a moron, or do you just play on on the Internet?

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Quote from marketsurfer:

Hi,

The answer is you don't. Seykota says that trends don't exist objectively therefore are subjective, yet they need to be "computed".

This is a tremendous contradiction.

surf
:)
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Trends do not exist objectively without definition. I believe that is his point. This is true for much of the conceptual language that we find useful, as I tried to point out.

This is true even for the statistical tests for trend that you mentioned. They are valid (objective) to you because they have been given definition by an expert.

I am afraid the rules for standard statistical procedure are far more subjective than you realize. They were not handed to us from a tablet from God.

You feel they are objective because someone told you they were. Yet they are objective only in the sense that they can be defined and reproduced by others.

Any subjective thought on how to define trend can be defined by rules and can consequently become an objective procedure.

In conclusion I think Eds only points are:

-If you want to know "what is the trend" the first step is having rules to define trend.
-Trends are identified with historical data and represent history rather than the present moment or the future.

As to if historical trend identification is useful to generating profit, this is what people attempt to flesh out with backtesting.
 
here's an if chart on a monthly, "if' you break it down to a daily it's making a head n shoulder,so you take all the "if's" and you see what's next, it's all subjective as the market changes and the events surrounding it,,you're still splitting hairs, I'm right,you're wrong, emotional ego driven, partly non factional,debate..pointless..directionless ..goes no where... discussion
 

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Quote from Rodney King:

Right, I should have added you as a candidate so your many fans could vote... my bad.
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Annaland has a personal relationship with Dave Goodboy.

So do you.

What's irksome is that you engage in sophistry to obscure that fact.

It's annoying to have to peel back all these layers when there's so much value at ET in straightforward dialog.
 
Quote from Samsara:

Annaland has a personal relationship with Dave Goodboy.

So do you.

What's irksome is that you engage in sophistry to obscure that fact.
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Like many others on this site, I like Surf and enjoy his company. I've never "obscured" that.

The only "sophistry" is from morons who've been saying I'm a "Surf alias" for the last year...
 
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