Trend Following Research (PDFs)
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Trend Following
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Ep. 193: Gerd Gigerenzer interview:
http://www.michaelcovel.com/2013/12...-with-michael-covel-on-trend-following-radio/
Interesting? He runs the David Harding Center for Risk Literacy. Also, you can download all 193 episodes at above link.
http://www.michaelcovel.com/2013/12...-with-michael-covel-on-trend-following-radio/
Interesting? He runs the David Harding Center for Risk Literacy. Also, you can download all 193 episodes at above link.
Trend Following
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âInvesting in Fake Marketsâ (PDF) is a PPT that made it across my desk. Excerpt: âRisk not taken in one wayâ¦will show up in another way instead.â
http://www.michaelcovel.com/2013/12/17/investing-in-fake-markets-pdf/
http://www.michaelcovel.com/2013/12/17/investing-in-fake-markets-pdf/
Trend Following
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Two centuries of trend following:
http://arxiv.org/abs/1404.3274
Synopsis: We establish the existence of anomalous excess returns based on trend following strategies across four asset classes (commodities, currencies, stock indices, bonds) and over very long time scales. We use for our studies both futures time series, that exist since 1960, and spot time series that allow us to go back to 1800 on commodities and indices. The overall t-stat of the excess returns is â5 since 1960 and â10 since 1800, after accounting for the overall upward drift of these markets. The effect is very stable, both across time and asset classes. It makes the existence of trends one of the most statistically significant anomalies in financial markets. When analyzing the trend following signal further, we find a clear saturation effect for large signals, suggesting that fundamentalist traders do not attempt to resist "weak trends", but step in when their own signal becomes strong enough. Finally, we study the performance of trend following in the recent period. We find no sign of a statistical degradation of long trends, whereas shorter trends have significantly withered.
http://arxiv.org/abs/1404.3274
Synopsis: We establish the existence of anomalous excess returns based on trend following strategies across four asset classes (commodities, currencies, stock indices, bonds) and over very long time scales. We use for our studies both futures time series, that exist since 1960, and spot time series that allow us to go back to 1800 on commodities and indices. The overall t-stat of the excess returns is â5 since 1960 and â10 since 1800, after accounting for the overall upward drift of these markets. The effect is very stable, both across time and asset classes. It makes the existence of trends one of the most statistically significant anomalies in financial markets. When analyzing the trend following signal further, we find a clear saturation effect for large signals, suggesting that fundamentalist traders do not attempt to resist "weak trends", but step in when their own signal becomes strong enough. Finally, we study the performance of trend following in the recent period. We find no sign of a statistical degradation of long trends, whereas shorter trends have significantly withered.
Interesting study. So trend following does not work
in markets under heavy intervention,
and such interventionist periods can last a long time.
That 200 year chart of the debt/GDP has peaks associated
with the revolutionary war, civil war, ww1 and ww2.
Given the recent ramp up, who are we fighting now?
in markets under heavy intervention,
and such interventionist periods can last a long time.
That 200 year chart of the debt/GDP has peaks associated
with the revolutionary war, civil war, ww1 and ww2.
Given the recent ramp up, who are we fighting now?