Trend Following + Range Trading

Quote from jack hershey:


Trends can be used to extract the offer by coupling the trend analysis is done using the order of events rather than time.

Ranges disappear at some point of sophistication.

Examine the market's offer as a standard. There is a continuous train of profit taking segments.

Thanks. I haven't even started playing with position sizing. This was just a reversal strategy - one entry per position - for educational value, mostly. This is the second time I've seen you post events vs. time and the offer of the market. I'm thinking p/f charting (or finding pivots) and acquiring a percentage of the daily range through pyramid limit orders.

*edit* the signal gets much better on higher resolution charts. The offer of the market could be the trends that make up the daily range............

-process engineer with a trade console

:D
 
Quote from Wide Tailz:

Thanks. I haven't even started playing with position sizing. This was just a reversal strategy - one entry per position - for educational value, mostly. This is the second time I've seen you post events vs. time and the offer of the market. I'm thinking p/f charting (or finding pivots) and acquiring a percentage of the daily range through pyramid limit orders.

*edit* the signal gets much better on higher resolution charts. The offer of the market could be the trends that make up the daily range............

-process engineer with a trade console

:D

The standard is a multiple of the dialy range not a percentage of the dialy range.

Process is the name of the game. Use a binary vector.
 
Quote from jack hershey:

The standard is a multiple of the dialy range not a percentage of the dialy range.

Process is the name of the game. Use a binary vector.

Offer of the market = daily range (difference between the minimum bid and maxumum offer for the day).

Binary vector = either up or down, depending on event based signal

Capturing offer of market via binary vector = event based trend following strategy on minute bars, encompassing daily price range.............
 
Quote from jack hershey:

you are not compounding capital. You will have to switch to log/log graphics at somepoint to deal with the equity results you will then encounter.

How is this?

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Quote from Wide Tailz:

Offer of the market = daily range (difference between the minimum bid and maxumum offer for the day).

this is commonly called the crayola test. Draw the zigzags and use a string to add the vertical lengths together. Then take you value (H-L) and snip the string into lengths equal to the H-L. You will easily see you have a multiple of the H-L.

Binary vector = either up or down, depending on event based signal

this is the most common error of the CW of the financial industry. Trend monitoring and analysis is done using dominant and non dominant profit segments. The container, amazingly enough is the parallelogram which gives you the dominant slope and the non dominant slope. This is where the color coding of platforms may come from. When the market is moving from right to left it is a dominant move. Movement from left to right is non-dominant.

A binary is a cool non probabilistic zero risk no money management required context for making money. Long or short are common sentiment terms which introduce the vector nature. The magnitude of the vector is a velocity measure as you would expect. To determine your performance you compare your trading money velocity against the limiting case the market's money velocity.


Capturing offer of market via binary vector = event based trend following strategy on minute bars, encompassing daily price range.............

The container of the trend contains a series of events. Three moves always occur in a trend. To trade as an expert you carve the extremes of each of the moves of a trend. The nice beginner trends are somewhat unusual. (Google rockets.)

As a person goes from least skilled to most skilled he takes advantage of the interlocking nature of the fractals ORDER of events. When extracting 3 to 6 times the daily range, a person has moved to the faster of the observable trend segments. In ES this is 20 to 40 trades a day. It is common for an expert to make 80 points a day percontract and trade arond 250 contracts with little or no slippage and no losses. No stops, mo money management and no risk.


For followers of the CW of the financial industry all of this is called "unbelievable". It is certainly unbelievable and this "unbelievability" has been verified in the most direct ways.

The market offers and CW types DO NOT TAKE THE OFFER, EVER.
 
Quote from Wide Tailz:

How is this?

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Convert your chart to log log and findout if trading scale change is affecting your confidence. Then calculate how your confidence is being affected.

You can also use the log log to model the corporate leverage test you saw in "Margin call".

the "mentalist character and the DEMI character "knew" they had stepped out of bounds. So did their boss of bosses. Who cares, the whole scene was just a "sales" scene.

My other post was the non sales version of corporate trading. what is fun to consider is going into these outfits and seeing if it is possible to add more than sales to the business.

If you follow Rosenthal Collins you can recognize that it was not possible there. Therefore, they had to pull my name from their propaganda.
 
Thanks again. I'm going to meditate on that for a while. I have very little finance background so I'm not familiar with much of what you write.

Designing a trading system is just like designing a control system, from a mechanical engineering standpoint. Actually it's much simpler........

:D
 
Interesting.

I still maintain that coupling a proven trend system with a proven range system and switching when the curves cross (plus a threshold amount) would beat either system, hands down, had they gone solo.........

Your thoughts?
 
Quote from heypa:

I have a question for Jack.
Can you show us a log/log chart such as you referenced earlier?

Lol


Hershey reminds me of Prechter - good at marketing an obscure method that promises to unlock the hidden order to the market, yet no one can turn it into a system with hard rules which can be backtested.

Speaking of, Van Tharp has a System Quality concept in his latest book, _Super Trader_: the value of a system (if it is profitable); i.e. how easy it is on your health compared to the killing it makes, is the ratio of Expectancy to std. deviation of R:

Less than .17 being very hard to trade, .2-.29 being good and .7+ being holy grail.

A grail system can be leveraged huge and not blow up (or blow out your blood pressure).

I haven't quantified my crude little trend system but it breaks down at about 8x leverage.

I can settle for 2x to meet my objectives, but 3x might be doable if I take up cycling again, to deal with the heat. Note that this only has a p/f of 1.4.

:D

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