Trend Following Podcast Update

ScottColeFTA said:
Nowhere on his websites does he claim any sort of trading performance for himself.
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Actually he does. Right on the page describing his trading course is a link to the performance page, giving the clear indication that the performance belongs to him, or to those who complete his course.

http://www.trendfollowing.com/new_2997/

What Covel and apparently you want to gloss over is the bold fact that trend following is not a single strategy but an umbrella concept that covers hundreds if not thousands of individual strategies.

Let me restate the obvious:

MOST TREND-FOLLOWING STRATEGIES ARE FAILURES.

For all I know, Covel is teaching nothing better than garbage like MACD at $3K a pop. It certainly qualifies as TF instruction, and since we never see his actual performance, we have no way of knowing.

It's not difficult for someone selling a pricey trading course to determine and release the actual performance of the specific strategy he's selling.
 
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Neither he, nor I, gloss over the fact that trend following is a general approach. We both know that traders such as Dunn and John Henry employed a long term reversal type of strategy; that the Turtles employed channel breakouts; and that there are many other strategies.

I don't know what else he teaches in his course.

I for one have a very strong understanding that a multi-strategy approach works best, and that there are plenty of CTAs who employ a trend following approach also use multiple systems with success. I would venture to guess that he knows this as well.

Given that Covel has had the opportunity to speak with so many, both on the record and off, I suspect he provides quality info. But, no way of ever convincing you of that. He knows that, which is why he doesn't bother replying to you.

And why should he? He's a successful businessman, and apparently has a pretty good reputation in the trading community. I personally know two people he's interviewed and am acquainted with several others. No complaints from any of them.
 
ScottColeFTA said:
Neither he, nor I, gloss over the fact that trend following is a general approach. We both know that traders such as Dunn and John Henry employed a long term reversal type of strategy; that the Turtles employed channel breakouts; and that there are many other strategies.

I don't know what else he teaches in his course.

I for one have a very strong understanding that a multi-strategy approach works best, and that there are plenty of CTAs who employ a trend following approach also use multiple systems with success. I would venture to guess that he knows this as well.

Given that Covel has had the opportunity to speak with so many, both on the record and off, I suspect he provides quality info. But, no way of ever convincing you of that. He knows that, which is why he doesn't bother replying to you.

And why should he? He's a successful businessman, and apparently has a pretty good reputation in the trading community. I personally know two people he's interviewed and am acquainted with several others. No complaints from any of them.
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No need for Covel to reply to me. I'm not really talking to him, I'm talking to the unsuspecting newbies he's trying to snare.

As far as his interviewees complaining, why would they? He wasn't charging them for the interviews, was he? LOL
 
kut2k2 said:
No need for Covel to reply to me. I'm not really talking to him, I'm talking to the unsuspecting newbies he's trying to snare.

As far as his interviewees complaining, why would they? He wasn't charging them for the interviews, was he? LOL
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Ask yourself this...why would a billionaire like David Harding bother with someone like Covel? Why would Larry Hite, Brad Rotter, Mike Dever, Jerry Parker, Tom Basso, or Ed Seykota? All of them are millionaires. They don't need Covel.
 
ScottColeFTA said:
Ask yourself this...why would a billionaire like David Harding bother with someone like Covel? Why would Larry Hite, Brad Rotter, Mike Dever, Jerry Parker, Tom Basso, or Ed Seykota? All of them are millionaires. They don't need Covel.
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Are you serious? Sheesh! OK, many of these guys are managing OPM. Getting free attention from Covel in his book(s) is free advertisement for them to get new clients. "Look here, sir, I'm good enough to get written up in a popular book about successful traders."

And even if they don't care about that, they all have egos. It's very flattering to be asked to take part in a book about successful traders and to maybe help some novices by imparting a pearl or two of wisdom to help or encourage said wannabes.

If you're a Donald Trump, you have to toot your own horn. But if you're a top trader, people like Jack Schwager and Michael Covel are lining up to toot your horn for you. Many top traders are pleased by this.
 
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kut2k2 said:
Are you serious? Sheesh! OK, many of these guys are managing OPM. Getting free attention from Covel in his book(s) is free advertisement for them to get new clients. "Look here, sir, I'm good enough to get written up in a popular book about successful traders."

And even if they don't care about that, they all have egos. It's very flattering to be asked to take part in a book about successful traders and to maybe help some novices by imparting a pearl or two of wisdom to help or encourage said wannabes.

If you're a Donald Trump, you have to toot your own horn. But if you're a top trader, people like Jack Schwager and Michael Covel are lining up to toot your horn for you. Many top traders are pleased by this.
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And you really think they would line up to be interviewed by a snake oil salesman, eh?

David Harding has over $20 billion under management at Winton Capital. His minimum account size is likely $25 million. Yeah, being interviewed in a book by a snake oil salesman ought to get him another $20 billion!

Top traders get plenty of attention on CNBC and Forbes, they don't need to be in a book. But, if the author has a good rep, they might do it. Schwager was in the business at Commodities Corp back in the day, which is how he met Michael Marcus, and then Ed Seykota. That gave him credibility, and that first book gave him even more.

Covel has credibility, which is why he gets these interviews.

In any event, you call him a fraud. That's a pretty strong accusation when you have no facts to support it. Since I've been in the business, know and am friends with people he's interviewed on the podcast, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.

Also, given that trend following as an approach to trading has allowed many people to build fortunes, yet most new traders tend to be focused on the high frequency day trading discussed here, I would say that there is more fraud going on here. Especially when the success rate among high frequency traders is so low, and virtually none have built up fortunes comparable to successful trend followers.

Newbies should at the very least take the time to look into trend following as an approach they should consider in the long run.
 
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ScottColeFTA said:
And you really think they would line up to be interviewed by a snake oil salesman, eh?

David Harding has over $20 billion under management at Winton Capital. His minimum account size is likely $25 million. Yeah, being interviewed in a book by a snake oil salesman ought to get him another $20 billion!

Top traders get plenty of attention on CNBC and Forbes, they don't need to be in a book. But, if the author has a good rep, they might do it. Schwager was in the business at Commodities Corp back in the day, which is how he met Michael Marcus, and then Ed Seykota. That gave him credibility, and that first book gave him even more.

Covel has credibility, which is why he gets these interviews.

In any event, you call him a fraud. That's a pretty strong accusation when you have no facts to support it. Since I've been in the business, know and am friends with people he's interviewed on the podcast, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.

Also, given that trend following as an approach to trading has allowed many people to build fortunes, yet most new traders tend to be focused on the high frequency day trading discussed here, I would say that there is more fraud going on here. Especially when the success rate among high frequency traders is so low, and virtually none have built up fortunes comparable to successful trend followers.

Newbies should at the very least take the time to look into trend following as an approach they should consider in the long run.
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You claim to have all this experience and connections but you post like somebody who doesn't know which way is up. Covel's rich buddies never see the snake oil side. Why would they? He isn't selling them any trading instruction, they don't need it.

So keep ignoring the big elephant in the room: the lack of specific performance data on the course he is selling. Keep talking like people, especially hustlers, don't show different sides of themselves to different people. Do you know how Scientology has gotten big Hollywood stars like Tom Cruise and John Travolta to join them? Because celebrities who join Scientology get the deluxe, easy-peasy front-door entrance to Scientology, not the fratboy-hazing, let-us-drain-your-bank-account rear-door entry to Scientology reserved for the hoi polloi.
 
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Next new update: Michael Mauboussin.

Synopsis: Michael Covel speaks with Michael Mauboussin today on his second visit to the podcast. Mauboussin is an author (“More Than You Know”, “Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition”), investment strategist in the financial services industry, professor at the Columbia Graduate School of Business, and serves on the board of trustees at the Sante Fe Institute (an independent, nonprofit theoretical research institute). He is managing director and head of Global Financial Strategies at Credit Suisse, where he advises clients on valuation and portfolio positioning, capital markets theory, competitive strategy analysis, and decision making. Covel and Mauboussin discuss multi-disciplinary thinking and its influence on Covel; looking at larger reference classes; the Swiss Franc; Mauboussin’s personal take on the recent oil move; fundamentals and expectation; luck or skill when it comes to trading profits; the paradox of skill, absolute, and relative skill; whether scientific principles of luck exist; defining luck; outcome bias; and the general public perception of behavioral economics.

http://www.michaelcovel.com/2015/02...-with-michael-covel-on-trend-following-radio/

http://traffic.libsyn.com/trendfollowing/315.mp3
 
Synopsis: Michael Covel interviews Gary Antonacci on today’s podcast. Antonacci focuses on two issues in the quant world: relative strength price momentum with trend following absolute momentum. He’s developed a strategy where he believes it’s best to combine both. His new book is called Dual Momentum Investing. Today, Antonacci makes the case for this strategy. Covel and Antonacci discuss momentum vs. trend; relative strength momentum, cross sectional momentum, absolute momentum, and time series momentum; trend following vs. managed futures as terms; Antonacci’s early history and how he found his way into the career he has today; three legendary traders that crossed paths with Antonacci early on; the efficient market hypothesis as a less-than-solid foundation; buying higher highs; Ray Dalio and risk parity strategies; academic perspectives on momentum; the interaction and correlation between the two momentum strategies (relative and absolute).

http://www.michaelcovel.com/2015/02...-with-michael-covel-on-trend-following-radio/

http://traffic.libsyn.com/trendfollowing/316.mp3
 
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