The threads on trend following I've seen on ET, including Covel's own, focus on diversified trend followers. The importance of a brief period of performance of a long-only, SPY-only product is...
Trend Following Is Dead
- Thread starter marketsurfer
- Start date
The threads on trend following I've seen on ET, including Covel's own, focus on diversified trend followers. The importance of a brief period of performance of a long-only, SPY-only product is...
Quote from Rodney King:
The threads on trend following I've seen on ET, including Covel's own, focus on diversified trend followers. The point of focusing on a brief period of performance of a SPY-only product is...
This is NOT those threads. This is a different thread. I simply pointed to an ETF that "uses" a trend following approach. It uses the 200 day avg to identify the trend of the market. And stays long until that trend is violated. Once violated it moves money into fixed income. And looky looky they are up 20% ytd! Sure, we're not stupid. This is elite trader after all. We can see that this ETF will basically be long the market. But at least there is some mechanism to save investors from enduring the potential 60% drawdown in 2008 and move their money to bonds. It's pretty simple really. And as simple as it is, it's absolutely destroying 95% of hedge funds this year. That's probably the really pathetic thing about it. But if you want your honor, you can strike that piece of evidence from the record. Surf still hasn't responded to any of my other points.
And he won't, Mav, he's probably ignoring the responses in the last threads where I basically told him I've done everything he claims can't be done:
Including
1) 25k account doubles in less than 1 year
2) Use Trend Following to Trade Profitably (maybe the most relevant)
3) Make better use of my time than debating a talking TV head with no programming knowledge or access to databases with clean financial records then missing about $250,000 of programming along with sacrificing a marriage built on a long distance relationship and having traded without TF for awhile I do have others but that's not that topic.
And,
4) This topic is lopsided because he's the OP, and will not acknowledge this is just a cock fight that only he can win.
Thus I do not enter this ring. This thread is in a completely inappropriate forum, and should be remanded to career trader.
I am talking about your claim Taylor is a "leading trendie". He's not.
Is he running AHL, Transtrend, Winton, Bluecrest? He's never mentioned in the same sentence with them because his fund has nothing to do with them strategy-wise. Taylor has never been a mechanical, diversified trend follower. Hence he is not and has never been a "leading trendie".
Surf, don't leave me hanging...
Quote from Maverick74:
Surf, don't leave me hanging...
Is it fair to say it was a TKO.. after 3 rounds..
Anyone contesting this should speak now or forever hold their peace...
Quote from Maverick74:
Surf, don't leave me hanging...
Rod is correct--- trend following funds are a diversified approach not the S&P 500 ETF. When I say trend following is dead, I am referring to trend funds, and quoting a big name in the trend business.
surf
Quote from Maverick74:
Now before this thread goes way off topic let's start over. Surf, you start a thread saying trend following is dead. You follow that up with "evidence" by pointing to one single fund who is struggling. In other words, you're cherry picking. I then respond with my own "cherry" that refutes that. You respond by saying I'm cherry picking and we should really look at a large group of funds instead of a single little cherry. So I respond in kind. I show you the entire hedge fund group and how they have gotten decimated by the S&P. In fact, their performance looks awfully similar to these trend funds. You then return my serve and start talking about your "niche" fund that made a killing in 2008, back to the cherry we are.
So Surf, I think this is an interesting debate. And I don't mind having it. But the debate has to compare apples to apples. If we are going to compare large groups of funds, fine, I've got data coming out of ears on hedge funds going back to the 1950's. If you want to serve and volley back and forth where we each pick out our favorite funds and see who wins, we can do that too. But you can't keep mixing and matching.
Now to be fair, I did concede that trend followers in general, broadly speaking, have put up mediocre numbers over the last decade. But so have hedge funds. In fact, so have most hedge fund strategies. I also pointed out, which you never responded to, that most investors use trend following as a "complement" to long risk asset strategies in which the combination produces lower overall volatility and higher risk adjusted returns.
So at this point in the match, I'm kind of lost here at the point you are trying to make. I'm not defending trend following. I believe I have graded their performance fairly and without prejudice. But I have yet to see your counterpoint. I'm sure you have one and perhaps you just forgot to post it. It happens. So I'll wait and see what you serve up for me.
Surf, THIS is the post I wanted you to respond to.
Quote from Maverick74:
Surf, THIS is the post I wanted you to respond to.
No counterpoint. I'm just quoting Taylor from the article.