Trend Following for Idiots (Order Restored)
- Thread starter steve46
- Start date
No sorry Steve its not hypo, and my system is better, in my opinion anyway.
I still think you are crazy to help these freaks.....
Good trading to ya
<i>"however, one can not determine with any odds greater than 50/50 just when to to enter a trade based on looking at past chart trends. therefore, knowing the supposed trend provides the trader no edge regardless of what is said."</i>
Thankfully, that's not true. It is merely a belief held by those who don't understand what they're seeing in a chart.
<i>if i flip a coin 10 times and get 10 heads, am i in a "heads trend"?</i>
No, you are not. The coin is in a sideways trend, just like the Russell 2000 has been thru most of 2007 to date.
If you roll that same coin down three flights of stairs, the coin is in a downtrend... regardless how many times it bounces upward at each landing.
Likewise, if you short the YM 10 times and get stopped out on every one, you have witnessed a persistent uptrend proven by the mathematical truth in your trading account
Peace out, <b>Surf</b>... you're one of my favorite people here (Anna too). But, you really need to shift opinions on market trend and the principle tendency of a body in motion staying in motion for awhile. That belief system you cling to is sucking $$$ out of your trading account when it could be flowing in.
There is one helluva lotta money to be made when one quits trying to fade every move and learns to hitch a ride instead. Any timeframe chart, any market or symbol.
Thankfully, that's not true. It is merely a belief held by those who don't understand what they're seeing in a chart.
<i>if i flip a coin 10 times and get 10 heads, am i in a "heads trend"?</i>
No, you are not. The coin is in a sideways trend, just like the Russell 2000 has been thru most of 2007 to date.
If you roll that same coin down three flights of stairs, the coin is in a downtrend... regardless how many times it bounces upward at each landing.
Likewise, if you short the YM 10 times and get stopped out on every one, you have witnessed a persistent uptrend proven by the mathematical truth in your trading account
Peace out, <b>Surf</b>... you're one of my favorite people here (Anna too). But, you really need to shift opinions on market trend and the principle tendency of a body in motion staying in motion for awhile. That belief system you cling to is sucking $$$ out of your trading account when it could be flowing in.
There is one helluva lotta money to be made when one quits trying to fade every move and learns to hitch a ride instead. Any timeframe chart, any market or symbol.
Hi;
I don't feel obligated to "explain" why other professionals are having trouble. Not because I don't have an opinion, I do. But I prefer to keep my thoughts on this subject to myself...For what its worth, I can tell you that it has little to do with trend following per se, and a lot to do with scale and other technical issues that arise when a successful money manager has too much money to work with....forgive me if I choose to stop right here.
Once I learned how to use the tools, I really never had a serious drawdown problem. Probably because I was taught by the best and because they emphasized risk management.
And of course, I direct you to the title of the thread. This is about teaching newbies. The "Idiots" part is actually a take off on the book series "(fill in the blanks) for Idiots".
steve46, this thread should be more appropriately titled "learning from the king of idiots"
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1192801&highlight=9/11+sister#post1192801
see how steve46 lies about losing loved ones on 9/11, and proves he's the biggest idiot ever on ET.
The problem is that Surf and others thought you meant that the thread was for them.
That is so not cool!
Obviously you're not too bright...The independent news report that clears up that controversey is available to all who care to read it...Once they do, those with common intelligence will look at you and ask "what kind of jerk would continue to refer to this knowing he is wrong?" Quite a few people have come to me about this asking just that question? I have suggested that we all contact Baron to ask that you be banned...I am pretty sure your days are numbered...So you might as well have at it... As far as I can tell, most here consider you an asshole and just ignore you...
I think "Rennick" summed it up nicely in his recent post as follows;
"How about rubberbird getting tossed, coming back as thorn then having to leave, then coming back as Ghostzapper, ET's moral authority.
Zapper out!!! ...Rennick
Steve
Heh -- JWH has likely made more money over his career than all the members of ET combined will...
That said, his performance has been suffering brutally, and I have yet to see anyone here posit that it might not be trendfollowing per se that's killing him, but his particular spin on the strategy. Isn't he a stop-and-reverse trader? I'm nearly certain that he is, and if that's the case he may be participating in the main-thrust sorts of trends that surf and others claim he's missing, and simply getting his ass handed to him on whipsaws.
It's a big difference in strategy, and would help explain the performance differences between his funds other current trendfollowers.