Trend Following for Idiots (Order Restored)

Quote from achilles28:

Trends only "manifest" themselves in hindsight. In point of fact, there is no such thing as trend at all. They are mental mirages. Illusions of the mind created by sheer desire to seek order
from chaos.

There is nothing in physics, the natural world, or human psychology/behavior that would even suggest trends
exist!

And since the market is a reflection of the participants that create it, we can all be assured the idea of trend is nothing more than a marketing invention by the shysters and shucksters to sell false hope to a gullible mass.

Thats the chink in your chain!
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good post, thanks!

reality is, it's a positive that well meaning people like steve46 and vendors like proflogic continue to propagate these persistant myths. one by one the sheeple will fall off the trend cliff or realize the folly, starting to grow into a true understanding of the dynamics at work.

regards, surf
 
Quote from steve46:

One of the interesting things about human beings is the ability to synthesize and anticipate from prior experience.....

The fact that some of use can do so, differentiates us from lower animals....and that is why we can make use of trend...
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Crazy talk. There is nothing in history or science that would aid the identification of your beloved 'trend'. Or suggest that it even exists!

Think about it rationally. The markets are nothing more than a vast pool of chaotic activity that defies any organized or predictable behavior. How can we know this?

How can we know Kim Jong-Il won't drop his pants on Jan 11th, 2010 and declare war on Western Civilization???

We simply can't know. Its impossible.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

good post, thanks!

reality is, it's a positive that well meaning people like steve46 and vendors like proflogic continue to propagate these persistant myths. one by one the sheeple will fall off the trend cliff or realize the folly, starting to grow into a true understanding of the dynamics at work.

regards, surf
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You know Marketsurfer, one would think that with your advanced understanding of the "dynamics" of the market, that you would trade more profitably....

Thanks for the profound statement..
 
people do not like unpredictability and chaos. constructs are created to ease the mind and create the illusion of order. proflogic is a prime example--those who can not develop their own construct seek gurus who claim to have the answers. its a universal truth which proflogic and others like him continue to exploit either knowingly or unknowingly. one must embrace the facts, and dismiss the rants of the gurus and simply misled.

regards, surf
 
I do appreciate all the "universal" truths you have to offer us.

You don't mind if we continue do you? I am sure there is nothing here in this thread to threaten you...

Do you mind?
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

good post, thanks!

reality is, it's a positive that well meaning people like steve46 and vendors like proflogic continue to propagate these persistent myths. one by one the sheeple will fall off the trend cliff or realize the folly, starting to grow into a true understanding of the dynamics at work.

regards, surf
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Only one minor point of contention - "well meaning people like Steve46".

Its been suspected for sometime now that Steve operates a clandestine signal service offering trend-following enthusiasts the chance to profit from his blatant chicanery.

Of course, Elitetrader has served as the preferred breeding ground to sucker and dupe the unsuspecting into his tantalizing web.

Now the jig is up and he's been exposed. A very elaborate ruse, Steve. Bravo.
 
Quote from achilles28:

...How can we know Kim Jong-Il won't drop his pants on Jan 11th, 2010 and declare war on Western Civilization???

We simply can't know. Its impossible.
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I will go with the balance of probability and bet against his doing so.
 
I think you mean "ruse" sir...and thanks for another fact filled post.....

Sigh...

It is lunch time in NY so I am off to get something to eat..Lovely speaking with you all...
 
Quote from tr51:

I'm baffled by some of these comments. I've been trading since the late 70's and have maintained a very nice lifestyle thanks to trends.
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Clearly, then, you don't exist.
:D
 
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