Quote from lolatency:
My guess is that you are trading all of these over the same time frame, based on when the jumps occur.
Perhaps try your strategy against a monte-carlo simulation where you're running a random-walk where each sample is drawn with volatility that happens to come from a bounded-random walk.
That's one of the problems. they're all correlated. And the take off starts with the commodity crisis on july 2008.
Maybe it's just works with a lot of volatility and a strong trend.
But, it's still works with the actual rally.