Trend Following dying?
- Thread starter JezLiberty
- Start date
Mr Black,
You short or looking to go long in this trade and if so, from which price? My interpretation is that you're looking to either exit ~ 330 or go long there. Can you clarify?
Thanks,
You short or looking to go long in this trade and if so, from which price? My interpretation is that you're looking to either exit ~ 330 or go long there. Can you clarify?
Thanks,
crgarcia and the OP are looking at the evidenceof the current trandfollowing on a vender site (the OP's) and the context is large businesses handling OPM which do trading strategies called "money managed trend following". No substntive content has ben posted on how trend following works in this level of capitalization.
crgarcia brings up several myths he believes. He is not trading any capital to speak of. Here is a summary of his orientation.
1. He does not trade any significant amount of money.
2. His basis of trading includes a lot of nyths that apply to corporation captial trading. There is a mismatch.
3. He shows here several myths he believes:
a. Fake signals.
b. Lagging trend signals (Discovery after happening)
c. Trend following never worked.
d. The appropriate fractal for trading is long term.
Dave Goodboy (a multi alias person from the mouth of the Hudson river)
This person is like crgarcia in many ways. He has many myths and is unable to grasp the concept of trends. He does not trade. He is a followers of personalities who gain fame in the media or of late by being vendors of nyths. Like happened to Covle for 8 hazardous years ofa "journey", Dave got "handled" by people who didn't give him the straight story because it is the cutsom of these media types to do hype.
Dave and garcia have a vertical orientation. Dave does not know as yet that a Trendline's personal name is RIGHT trend line nor does he know the other container line is the LEFT trend line.
A trader has to have a neutral bias. Dave is long biased and crgarcia is stressed out so badly he can't handle trends period.
Dave has to understand an upper line and a lower line mean opposite things in long or short trends. However in the financial industry the term TRENDLINE always applies the the line to the right of price (long or short) and Technically by traders it is referred to the RIGHT TREND LINE.
Many successful methods use trend lines to trade: BO trades; contrartian trading; retrace trading; reversal trading; and trend "following". Other successful traders us trends as signal generators and the trade with the trend (not following). Still other traders trade ahead of the trend and these are parasitic front runing traders (See Larry Harris 32 block hierarchy). Anothr class of traders trade as warriors using the feedback loops of OODA (John Boyd).
This brings us to the T666 and Tzone and T28 type personalities in ET. The OCD's. They are not associated with the ineptness of garcia, the OP or Dave. They do not fit the class of traders who use trend strategies. They do not fit into the fighter class of OODA.
The foundational aspects of trends are that they are of high utility. They are easily coded into powerful rffective and efficient optimizers of the market. As usually their is a caveat: you must use the form of mathematics used by the markets. This is the underlying cause of the failures noted above, particularly Covel who got snockered by so many people who bullshitted him blind in his ignorance.
What do trends do for the trading world?
Rationally, they provide a container for the futre price movement to fill in.
Trends fit into the three conventional things the mind is capable of doing for all the activities of a person:
1. construct the present
2. reconstruct the past, and
3. predict the future.
In other words trading is a familiar mental pursuit.
you may not be familiar with Aristotle, Galen, Versalius, Descartes, Galvani, Bulgi, Gall, Gage, Froid, etc. But each contributed to how and why the tradr's mind handles trends.
the 85 billion neurons and their respective 10,000 connections each give you a large operational machine that can help you, rationally, take all of the market's offer all of the time.
So is your brain a telephone exchange, a tape or video recorder or a laptop full of chips and software? YES it is.
Dave shows how the blank spot on the retina is filled in to give you "Believing is seeing"
I have explained that preception is the sum of two parts"sensing (10%) and inference (90%). Above you see inference described as "your reconstruction of the past.
We see that with respect to reconstructing the past the following have fucked it up: the OP, rcgarcia, dave the three T's, the thread moderator, and many others too small to mention.
Everyone does the three things with respect to trends. Construct the present, reconstruct the past and construct the future.
This explains simply why some people make tons of money and other can't do anything or anything right.
You can see why Dave messes up trends. He has reconsructed tends to be upper and lower lines where he assigns one thong ALL the time to each line.
You saw Traderzones give us the straight poop on the fact that he cannot connect dominance to trends (and he is in the up, down instead of left, right orientation.
You either get over being stupid with your mind or not.
Yesterday I posted trades in sets of three. 3, 6, 9, 12, 15. They all followed the patterns I put up for the people who had brain farts all day to see. Some people (100's) have saved the illustrations.
I suggested that CW people reconstruct the past in pairs. Which gives them a mystery pair after pair since you have toi go through three pairs to repeat. I liiustrade how CW people get three different answers one after the other and that causes them to write posts like the three T's do, like carcia does, like Dave does and like the OP does.
Why does the OP think a detailed discussion of how trends work is Off Topic? He can only thing of them in a mananged money trendfollowing context which isn't workable to take the market's offer.
If seeing a set of 3 gives you the next 3 and the next 3 and the nest 3 and the next 3; why isn't it possible to stop doing up, down pairs? Well we all see the reason is that the person with the reconstructed history of pairs cannot consider, look at, or even "SEE" the trend comes in three moves. I'm laying this out slowly and really dumbing it down for those hwose minds are not functional.
We know T666 always works in three's. His foolish handle is in three's. But he cannot any longer use his mind for anything rational or for learning. He has mentally destroyed himself because it is his escape from failure into another form of failure.
Dave is in the hierogliphics and white and retina black dot world.
He does not know how his mind repeats doing 1, 2, 3, above.
If he doesn't know who I am, he should sheck in with Tom Brokaw's wife; our wifes joinded the Cos Club the same class. He could check with Bill carey ex SEC head who skiis and plays golf with me. He could go over the the MET and look at the colonial furniture collection on loan from the NY Historical Society to which the furniture is loaned by the original owners. There he gets to see why the plaques are on all those buildings whereby they are leasing the dairyfarm land that adjoined Wall street. Check out the street name of the street the Mayor lives on. Check out who contributed some of the UN property. Tell T666 the name of the foundation on the plaques....lol.. The NYT had a two column cut for the wedding pics.... The female name wasn't first as was customary.
I skipped Kelly College at BTL and was an MTS while in grad school. There are a lot of patents over there under several of our family name.
So the job of the person who uses trends in a timely manner is to annotate thoroughly from the ground up.
the person ALWAYS has the faster fractal and the slower fractal of his trading fractal thoroughly annotated. Romanus id do the best so far except he is not line weight conscious for ease of "reconstructing the past and predicting the future" as everyone's mind does.
PEP and its applications: PVT, SCT and SSR uses fully the way the mind works.
Escaping the up, down pairs and going to the three move trend patterns was done by drilling in a deductive reasoning context. The P, V pattern showing the dom, non dom, dom rleationship for a full loop of a long trend them a short trend has been on the table for dys now.
It has to be placed in fornt of the trader on display in color as a reference to wean a person away from the mistaken CW three pair patterns.
The first wrong pair of CW is:
up, down with the respective Dom, Non Dom.
The second wrong pair of CW is:
up, down with the respective Dom, Dom.
The third wrong pair of CW is:
up, down with the respective Non Dom, Dom.
Look at these over and over to see that each is different. All CW people do not see these consciously but they are seen unconsciously by these people. They are screwed mentally. This is known as unconscious incompetence. Traderzones stepped up and said: "I AM UNCONSCIOUSLY INCOMPETENT". .So did T666. So DID T28, So did the OP. So did Dave. So did crgarcia.
We will interconnect the patterns, scoring, the paradigmâs HS and its PM. Above you see what people do that is wrong and why anxiety, fear and anger that is demonstrated prevails with all of these people.
To reconstruct the past you need to use a sheet of papaer to combine scorring which involves P, V, A/D, their binary casaes and the decimal equivalent of the scores.
You need the chart P abd V going through the pattern. You need to fully annotate the V and P.
you need the vetically divide time passing to show each uniques case and aspect of the twp patterns in a long then short order especially showing the over lap period.
you need to make this chart into a grand chart that shows three nested fractals and the whole nine yards of the slowest fractal.
as you construct this master piece weave in all the nuances as well. Show and highlite in a your personal manner each case of each internal and all the pace variations as they apply to this chart you are making.
Then use it for the following:
1. construct the present.
2. reconstruct the past.
3. skip 3 and go to:
1. where are you in the cycle?
2. what is next?
3. how fast is it changing.
This is changed around to accommodate making money instead of doing the mental process of predicting.
There are seven internals: SYM, FTP, FBP, OB, Hitch (R or B) and Stitch (R or B). the hitch only counts as one.
Containers have four nuances: VE's, Fanning and acceleration. And laterals which bridge from internals to containers as you would expect.
The best canvas to draw on is the mind. reconstructing the past is dome three ways. spatially so you can drive around on maps and buildings. historicallyso you know your whole life's expereinces on a time ,ime. And now I am adding a mental differentiation so you can have a history (it is called long term memory) that is fully organized to give you the inference to match what you SEE (Sense).
The 10,000 hours some people devote to reconstructin history of their trading is done so slowly because thes people are ingnoorantof how to build their minds. They do it unconsciously to get to the wrong place and they do CW trading. (See traderzones for the ignorant set of measures of CW trading).
Build your minds so your first recourse is the grand chart of how trend patterns work and fractals are nested and there are seven leading indicators of any turn.
It is as they say, unbelievable and astonishing to them. To a PEP trader it is taking the market's offer all the time in any market anywhere that has sufficient liquidity.
Take a sheet of paper..... save the 10,000 hour trip or cancel the trip you already took to nowhere.
Don't take a sheet of paper; blow off, mentally, Jack hershey, yet once again....lol....
Take a sheet of paper.........just do it....
You need the chart P abd V going through the pattern. You need to fully annotate the V and P.
you need the vetically divide time passing to show each uniques case and aspect of the twp patterns in a long then short order especially showing the over lap period.
you need to make this chart into a grand chart that shows three nested fractals and the whole nine yards of the slowest fractal.
as you construct this master piece weave in all the nuances as well. Show and highlite in a your personal manner each case of each internal and all the pace variations as they apply to this chart you are making.
Then use it for the following:
1. construct the present.
2. reconstruct the past.
3. skip 3 and go to:
1. where are you in the cycle?
2. what is next?
3. how fast is it changing.
This is changed around to accommodate making money instead of doing the mental process of predicting.
There are seven internals: SYM, FTP, FBP, OB, Hitch (R or B) and Stitch (R or B). the hitch only counts as one.
Containers have four nuances: VE's, Fanning and acceleration. And laterals which bridge from internals to containers as you would expect.
The best canvas to draw on is the mind. reconstructing the past is dome three ways. spatially so you can drive around on maps and buildings. historicallyso you know your whole life's expereinces on a time ,ime. And now I am adding a mental differentiation so you can have a history (it is called long term memory) that is fully organized to give you the inference to match what you SEE (Sense).
The 10,000 hours some people devote to reconstructin history of their trading is done so slowly because thes people are ingnoorantof how to build their minds. They do it unconsciously to get to the wrong place and they do CW trading. (See traderzones for the ignorant set of measures of CW trading).
Build your minds so your first recourse is the grand chart of how trend patterns work and fractals are nested and there are seven leading indicators of any turn.
It is as they say, unbelievable and astonishing to them. To a PEP trader it is taking the market's offer all the time in any market anywhere that has sufficient liquidity.
Take a sheet of paper..... save the 10,000 hour trip or cancel the trip you already took to nowhere.
Don't take a sheet of paper; blow off, mentally, Jack hershey, yet once again....lol....
Take a sheet of paper.........just do it....
Or you could just be a lazy no-account mentally fat fuck, subscribe to a backtesting service, test some weird ideas, and sit back and let the money roll in. No market theories. No mumbo-jumbo jargon. No acorn-nyms to dismember. Just what works using binary decision theory. "That ain't workin'! That's the way you do it! You make the money on the CME!" (Apologies to Dire Straits.)