Trend Following dying?

Quote from TIKITRADER:

I take them ( H- H ) to be significant at point of change . . . 1-2 and 3's- ftt's

Is this correct?

The way I look at it is through the patterns and the nesting of fractals.

The order of events in the the internals usually goes to completion with translation finally emerging from the series. Then after translation to get to an end of a pattern move, the next pair is often a H-H as an internal which is then followed by transaltion.

So my reply is to look closely at the small very sub sub pattern within a two bar yellow made up of a H-H. There you see declining volume into a sub sub rtl followed by increasing volume after the sub sub rtl.

Here is an example. The FOMC news.

attachment.php


Move 1 was short and the two bar yellow was a before and after shot (bar 54 and 55). So you see an H-H composed the way I explained in a subsub context.

Move 2 was an IBGS on 55, then 56 and the beginning of 57. Again the sub sub rtl was crossed on 57's beginning in that H-H.

Move 3 was short and expired on the IBGS of bar 59.

The context is now the short tape overlap with a potential long tape on a BBT 1 long where we need, by CP 4, a point 2 for the tape outside of the thick red RTL. No H-H here since the short wa over in the bar 59 and it was long before the bar close.

H-H's are called this since the close to open is a hinge at a bar extreme (one end or another.)

I hope I prevented you from using a shape (H-H) to become a rule and, instead, you are using the mind building of patterns and fractals being nested and the three mind operators of spatial, shape and movement.

i brought into play different aspects of SCT in each post and illustration. I'm sure everyone unfamiliar with doing the mind building learning process is inclined to make the usual judgements to reject what I have suggested in relation to trends. 4 o out 5 people do this and then go on about their business. A few people feel the need to steer as many people away from this as possible. This approach to discourage people is very helpful to those who agree with these detractors.
 

Attachments

Things must be really bad in the day trading world.

A sure sign is folks gathering around the bizzare and esoteric to in an attempt to make money.


Let's get this thread back on topic. Let the chart painters and astrologers, numerolgists and line drawers have their own fun on their own sites. they are not welcome here.

GO AWAY
 
Quote from sonyericson:

Things must be really bad in the day trading world.

A sure sign is folks gathering around the bizzare and esoteric to in an attempt to make money.


Let's get this thread back on topic. Let the chart painters and astrologers, numerolgists and line drawers have their own fun on their own sites. they are not welcome here.

GO AWAY

The Atlanta job phone number (numerologistically speaking) is 404 495 7417. For details on the job make a phone call.
 
Quote from jack hershey:


H-H's are called this since the close to open is a hinge at a bar extreme (one end or another.)

I hope I prevented you from using a shape (H-H) to become a rule

ok I have interpreted them as a double hinge. This is different.
Their use was definitely not as a rule, but used as an awareness.
This is very helpful thanks.
 
Threw in the towel for today............small commission loss on 6 trades. Range up to now is 6 1/2 handles, no one in their right mind can trade crap like that.

I was going to post to this thread to show breakout stuff in trend trading is cool but i see Jack and the guys with crayons and a ruler hijacked the thread as usual. So maybe i will try somewhere else.

These fucking clowns always ruin a good thing.

PS: considering the range and working on a rather new strat............. "It's all good"
 
wow... catching up on this thread after being away from the computer and boy did it veer off course.

I was expecting some endless "why trend following works/does not work" discussion - the thread never managed to reach that stage... ;-)
 
This thread was started by a vendor in violation of the rules of ET. Certinly the posters here feel I did the usual of stealing the thread.. I simply used my right as a member to answer the question asked.

Below I am posting my summary of what I suggested would happen during the day and after it began. I see everyday as a series of profit segments that are each trends. As was pointed out this was a day that had a range deemed untradable by others. It was a day of testing the "R" and as such did several tests and had a three move news period.


Quote from jack hershey:

Trading the subs of the BBT's is about 20 to 40 trades a day.

Trend traders call these observable linked trades. There were 25 today counting the news. the range was deemed to be 6 and 1/2 points or 26 ticks. 25 trades and 26 ticks. That does not make each trade a tick. When you look at the chart, you can see that over 81 bars there were 25 trades and each trade was several bars long. you can also see the nature of the bars. Smart money trading is shown below the P, V chart. you can see the agregate of the smart money trading since the scales line up in time

The elements of the pattern include four volume moves to three price moves.

Seeing a wall on the DOM lets anyone know that price is NOT going past that value but is going to reverse and go the other way.

There are no "rules" but rather it is like driving a car and being on a street or road and seeing landmarks and traffic signs all about. You watch the other drivers going where they want to as well.

Where each line touches a bar and price turns the other way is where a person can, with unconscious competence, do the takings of the trend segments as the day passes.

My routine is to be on the right side of the market and take full profit segments over and over using MADA a routine of monitoring, analysis, decision making and timely action. HOLD is mycommon action since I do the routine 6 to 10 times in five minutes.

Today we see the market do even harmonics to center on the pre news price. Then three moves will ensue and then the market will follow its prior context.

since I know the context I know the last move. Sonce I know the last move I know the next to last move. Since I know the next to last move I know the first move. I know the time of the first move, etc..

My day is pretty well set.

1. Trade the medium weight trends using the observable point to point trades according to the three moves within each pattern. the day opened with four of these three part patterns. 12 trades all linkedand alternating between long and short. 12 trades here.

2. trade the even harmonics into the CCC (centering) three trades here as suggested before the trades: S, L, S into the centering before the news

3. trade the three moves for the news, and the order of these trades was backed into since the post period was also known. the post period ws going from a short tape FTT to the RTL and past it to form the first BBT 1 of a new long tape after the news. this makes the three moves S, L, S in that order during the news. the three moves were posted to explain how H-H's work as sub sub's

4. trade out the rest of the day using the context and more patterns.The long BBT 1 is annotated in black after the notation of M1, M2 and M 3. the BBT 1 was destined to breakout from the prior tape short as bighog said. Bighog was looking to trade breakouts today. He took 6 trades today.

The six Breaksouts did occur while R was being tested. For the record the six BO's were on bars 9 (the ftt is on bar 8 so go long on bottom of bar 8); bar 15 (the ftt is on bar 13 so reverse out of the long into a short on bar 13); bar 28 (the ftt is on bar 25 so reverse out of the short on bar 25 and go long); bar 38 (the ftt is on bar 37 so reverse out of the long on bar 37 and go short); reverse on bar 40; reverse on bar 47.

There were also two tape BO's: bar 17 and you were already short.and bar 69 where you were already long as you came out of the end of the third move of the news long.

Trading the ftt's on BBT's is advanced beginner trading and amounts to 4 to 7 trades a day. FTT's do occur BEFORE BO traders take their trades so you are always "pushed" by BO traders. BO traders DO NOT TRADE BO TO BO. We all know why. They can only cover their trading commissions. They leave early to make money and sideline for 2/3's of the moves within BO to BO.

Hold as news arrives since the predetermined direction is short.


5. prepare and email the charts, the day's synopsis and carry over for tommorrow's open. I will not mail the charts posted since the list has those and this text already.

I send charts that are "to scale". This means the reader is calibrated and he can glue all charts together for debriefing

attachment.php


6. goof off.

In Tucson lunch this time of year is after the close.

my reason for posting in this thread is to make the point of how valuable trend trading really is.

A coupleof posters did not recognize the trend annotations nor that volume leads price. Why would they? To recognize trends and trader them , you have to do the annotations. Annotating trends always assures you that you know what side of the market is the correct side. The rcorrect side depends upon the fractal you trade. I trade the observable fractal which yields 20 to 40 trades a day. Today was 25. All were known in advance in terms of their order and direction. SCT trading is based on binary vctors. Binary vectors keep the trader totally abreast of what the day holds as you have seen.

Good luck to everyone. Trend trading is quite productive.

As they said, "now back to the topic" instead of what I am talking about.
 

Attachments

Quote from JezLiberty:

wow... catching up on this thread after being away from the computer and boy did it veer off course.

I was expecting some endless "why trend following works/does not work" discussion - the thread never managed to reach that stage... ;-)

Do't be shy. As a vendor, you have some sales to try to make.

Go for it. Get the thread back on course. Making money intraday trading trends is certainly off course.
 
Jack,


you have an ftt of the container down at bar 40 correct?

next comes bars 42 to 47.
How do you handle this move? ( besides long on bar 42 . I am speaking of how it fits into bigger picture)
I see it has it's own pattern and thats easy enough.

How does this fit into the large red down container . . . as it is a fan out of the bar 36 right red trendline . . . but what is it building in the larger move? Is it all part of the retrace starting at bar 28 and ending on bar 47 ?

bar 47 on easy enough to see.

thanks
 

Attachments

Back
Top