Trend Following depends on Prediction

Quote from kut2k2:



Stop acting like anticipating certain price actions by using logic and experience is some mystical event. It's not, and it shouldn't ever be treated as such.
Untill it can be quantified and tested, what else could it be other than mysticism?

I hear TA folks all over his site, and in real life saying "that pattern or that price action, or this signal increase the odds of a succesful entry" unfortunately, for them, but clear to me, is the fact that in order for there to be ODDS, it must be quantifiable--- however, their this and that IS NOT QUANTIFIABLE OR TESTABLE therefore its not ODDS but rather mysticism and hope not to mention a MISUSE of the term ODDS.

surf
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

All directional trading depends on prediction. Period.

Nonsense. Going with a probability or likelihood is not prediction.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

Untill it can be quantified and tested, what else could it be other than mysticism?

I hear TA folks all over his site, and in real life saying "that pattern or that price action, or this signal increase the odds of a succesful entry" unfortunately, for them, but clear to me, is the fact that in order for there to be ODDS, it must be quantifiable--- however, their this and that IS NOT QUANTIFIABLE OR TESTABLE therefore its not ODDS but rather mysticism and hope not to mention a MISUSE of the term ODDS.

surf
I know one thing that is quantifiable, your successive massive losses ignoring simple price action.
 
Quote from Lucrum:

Nonsense. Going with a probability or likelihood is not prediction.

Probabilities AKA liklehood. don't exist in your world. Probabilities are a product of quantification. Your TA patterns and price action can't be quantified--- therefore they are outside of the world of probabilities .
 
Quote from Lucrum:

Nonsense. Going with a probability or likelihood is not prediction.

Once you place the trade it's a prediction be default. Otherwise why would you place it?
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

Probabilities AKA liklehood. don't exist in your world. Probabilities are a product of quantification. Your TA patterns and price action can't be quantified--- therefore they are outside of the world of probabilities .

Quote from marketsurfer:

Once you place the trade it's a prediction be default. Otherwise why would you place it?

Complete nonsense smurf.
 
Quote from kut2k2:

Yes but as I painstakingly pointed out, there are different levels of prediction. The unadorned word "prediction" too often conjures up images of mystics forecasting unlikely events ala supermarket tabloids with their annual top-20 "psychic forecasts" for the new year or whatever.

But we humans anticipate things every day, and these anticipations are nothing but predictions of likely events, and most of them come true.

Stop acting like anticipating certain price actions by using logic and experience is some mystical event. It's not, and it shouldn't ever be treated as such.

I agree. Price is either trending or ranging. If one buys or shorts an exit from a trading range, he's going to be in a trend, unless the breakout was false, in which case he'll be back in the trading range, which must eventually end. If a trend ensues, it may be short-lived or extensive, but it will be a trend.
 
Quote from jack hershey:

You say:

"So the purpose of this thread was not to deny that trends exist nor to claim that it is impossible to benefit from them financially through the use of systematic trading. It was to provoke thought on how systems might survive into the future and continue to benefit from trends, while avoiding being destroyed by noise and sideways choppy markets.

Some believe that trend following systems can be turned on during trending periods and counter trend systems can be turned on during choppy, sideways markets and vice versa. Some believe that running a multitude of different systems at the same time will enable the program as a whole to profit from any market condition."

Thus your solution for trending and then chop is two systems One called a trending system and the other called a counter trending system. Trending and counter trending are not opposites as you point out.

Handling trending and opposite trending would just use the one systemmic approach and the full offer would be taken for both.

As I mentioned, I use one system for both trending and chop.

I do not use an entry/exit; pehaps you do since you mention a host of those who still do and have troubles.

I think of price as often being in the shadow of a brief higher volatility moment. The information group of this moment can take on one of three shapes depending up on up to four possible useable values of the shape. (OHLC).

My solution while I only have to use one system is to examine the context of the chop in this shadow. Chkitout recently modified Brooks' systemmic approach in a non important non data context period to make a mistaken point. See his red marks elsewhere.

My position going forward from the event of the beginning of the shadow is to hold and assess the context of the chop.

I do this by going to the fastest observeable fractal where there is always trending and never chop. This is a contextually siginificant change. None of your referenced operators do this.

Thus I am observing sentiment on a trading fractal level and on a faster fractal sub fractal level of the trading fractal. For me all fractals are nested in a fixed unchanging ratio. (3:1)

For deeply and precisely resolved technical considerations, I observe (during this non money making shadow interval), the sentiment changes on the subfractal pompared to the unchanging trading fractal.

I resolve the condition, situation and context at a specific point after the shadow commenced. In effect this puts me on the correct side of the market from that point onward and I am trading on the sub-fractal continually taking small profits (See the level of trading of Lucrum).

Thus at the time the market resumes trending (a BO of this lateral) I am in synch always with the trading fractal and I take the opportunity to continue to move forward profitably.

Thus, keeping one system that totally relates to the systemmic operation of the market is always possible.

As a person takes the trip of dealing with CW's "noise", "flaws" and "anomalies", he eliminates these through deductive reasoning.

In effect, the usual process of collecting "edges" reaches a peak number and, from then on, the edges are merged into systems where two groups form and they are named: "trend systems" and "counter trend systems".

Bridging these two systems depends open higher principles. some of the shifts that facilitate this are:

1. shifting from entry/exit trading to hold reversal trading.

2. shifting form difining exits and entries as separate entities to understanding exit and entry are an identity with just one contextual variant (sentiment).

3. shifting from probabilities o certainties by having a moment in an information parcel where no more change can occur (prbailities of alternatives goe to zero from that point onward.

4. developing the "functional toolks for all of the above by using the correct Algebra for the functions in non continuous functions.

You suggested you were opening a conversation. Notice what has prevented you so far. Ras suggested to the magician he is in a difficult place. The magician will not change his limited view for his reasons. Ras doesn't care because he will not waste time coaching such a person as the magician. Ras does make contextual comments because he knows ohters can "get" the value of his coaching.

You do not coach. You as here to gather information to solve your problems in a better way.

One conclusion that I am presenting to you is subtle. Notice that I do not predict but I do let each information parcel resolve itself as it "locks in" to its "certain" identity before the end of the information parcel.

People are making crass and harsh comments to you. They do this from a vantage point.

I do not feel I can help you but you are an example for others to consider. You do need to gather more intelligence to be able to helpyourself.
After publicly humiliating yourself, again, I'm surprised you'd think anyone would still read your tripe anymore jack.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

Untill it can be quantified and tested, what else could it be other than mysticism?

I hear TA folks all over his site, and in real life saying "that pattern or that price action, or this signal increase the odds of a succesful entry" unfortunately, for them, but clear to me, is the fact that in order for there to be ODDS, it must be quantifiable--- however, their this and that IS NOT QUANTIFIABLE OR TESTABLE therefore its not ODDS but rather mysticism and hope not to mention a MISUSE of the term ODDS.

surf
Are you kidding? TA is tested all the time; it's called backtesting. That's how we measure the worth of a trading system whether it's TA-based or has any other basis. I've even posted a thread called "System Performance Score" detailing how best to compare different trading systems based on their backtest results.

All very quantitative, surf.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

Untill it can be quantified and tested, what else could it be other than mysticism?

I hear TA folks all over his site, and in real life saying "that pattern or that price action, or this signal increase the odds of a succesful entry" unfortunately, for them, but clear to me, is the fact that in order for there to be ODDS, it must be quantifiable--- however, their this and that IS NOT QUANTIFIABLE OR TESTABLE therefore its not ODDS but rather mysticism and hope not to mention a MISUSE of the term ODDS.

surf

You are correct in what you have said.

People who enter the trading field begin with your comment as a starting point.

Obviously, then they set goals for their future work.

I found a set of 56 elements and I tested to find if there were more. There are no more.

These elements are now defined precisely mathematically.

If market participants were competing, then I would become a parasite since that would be appropriate considering my small size. So in Harris's terms I am a parasite who is technically inclineded by virtue of my systemic orientation and that I have a complete and tested set of elements.

Each information parcel is identical as it is being supplied to me. In other words I am delivered consistent exacting information content and this information content fits into 1 of 56 unique elements of a complete set.

Surf, you were given one by me and I gave you the rules for using it to always be able to make money. This is a segway to what you left out of your posit.

there is much much more to undrstanding the operation of the market than you present. All you presented was the common starting point nearly everyone, including yourself, uses.

Trend drivers are the next step. So is understanding the unique role of market variables and market measures whether they be direct, indirect, induced or substitution effects.

Each new information parcel from any market is either of value or not (statistically significant). That test is made for every unique possible information parcel. This is invariant in any full system of elements.

Often an information parcel begins as an unknown element. So there is a further requirement to make it known only as a specific known element. therefore, this criteria has to be so high quality that once known it can never dislocate into another mathematical definition. The term usually applied is that the element is irreversable.

Most people do not get beyond this advanced beginner level.
The reason is that they do not understand the weight given to the partnership involved in trading. For example, it is not included in this threads scope and bounds.

The mind works 24/7. 1/5,000th of the activity is conscious. And the merger of the two is done while sleep occurs.

Most people never have the experience of waking up and having the merger completed. A person knows he has had that experience clearly in a given field.

the result is that mental shortcuts appear and finally with respect to the field a fully differeintiated mind is operational and part of the partnership. "You always know you know" is the symptom.

Partnering with the market is like partnering with a car and driving it.

Trend drivers are always in operation for expert traders. There are no questions about the market that come to mind, ever.

The mind of the expert, to paint the picture for readers, is just to the right of the Present where the future comes into the Present.

The market has no noise, no flaws nor any anomalies. An incomplete trader whose mind is not fully differniated sees things. Often the mind replies to the senses that it is seeing noise, flaws or anomalies and is not getting any signals from the constant flow of indicators.

Someone in this thread introducd myticism. They had the same problem at Plymouth Rock and environs, so they killed people.

Remarkably some people see me as needing a straight jacket. the viewrs get to see this imprint. Surf says he has me on ignore.
 
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