trend following delusion shattered

Cutten · Apr 7, 2005

Quote from NickelScalper:

A method must predict price to the extent necessary to form a basis for its expectations.

You are relying on a reasonable estimate of the likely distribution of prices, yes. But then that is true of all trading methods which rely on price change to generate their profits.

NickelScalper · Apr 7, 2005

Quote from Cutten:

You are relying on a reasonable estimate of the likely distribution of prices, yes. But then that is true of all trading methods which rely on price change to generate their profits.

Exactly.

illiquid · Apr 7, 2005

Who doesn't buy because they anticipate/predict a move higher, or sell anticipating/predicting a move lower, no matter what the method? Beyond the semantics, this thread is just about one trader's perception of what works vs others. What's the point in answering the question when it is impossible to prove ANY method is anything more than "temporarily" reliable.

NickelScalper · Apr 7, 2005

Quote from illiquid:

Who doesn't buy because they anticipate/predict a move higher, or sell anticipating/predicting a move lower, no matter what the method? Beyond the semantics, this thread is just about one trader's perception of what works vs others. What's the point in answering the question when it is impossible to prove ANY method is anything more than "temporarily" reliable.

It isn't about merely anticipating change in price -- flipping a coin will accomplish that -- but doing so reliably.

The perceptions of many traders have been represented in this thread.

Thunderdog · Apr 7, 2005

NickelScalper,

What, then, in broad terms, is the basis or underlying premise of your own trading?

hank rollins · Apr 7, 2005

Quote from Cutten:

Expectation is not the same as anticipation though, is it? A trend-follower doesn't have to be any good at predicting if a trend will continue. All they have to do is trade in a way such that the profits that accrue when the trend continues are higher than the losses they suffer during reversals and market chop. They don't have to predict price, merely the likely distribution of prices.

can not the same be said for reasonable random entries ??

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open up the border to the rivers running green, 'cause i've got traunches full of dollars to trade for gasoline.........

hank rollins · Apr 7, 2005

Quote from NickelScalper:

It isn't about merely anticipating change in price -- flipping a coin will accomplish that -- but doing so reliably.

The perceptions of many traders have been represented in this thread.

what a great study ( this thread ) on how the market works. if we did not have vastly differing perceptions, the market would go flat, then cease to exist---- which may actually happen one day, without intervention.

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open up the border to the rivers running green, 'cause i've got traunches full of dollars to trade for gasoline.........

NickelScalper · Apr 7, 2005

Quote from Thunderdog:

NickelScalper,

What, then, in broad terms, is the basis or underlying premise of your own trading?

No comment.

NickelScalper · Apr 7, 2005

Quote from hank rollins:

open up the border to the rivers running green, 'cause i've got traunches full of dollars to trade for gasoline.........

Gotta be down for verses about gasoline.

hank rollins · Apr 7, 2005

Quote from NickelScalper:

Gotta be down for verses about gasoline.

you got it, brother !