Yes, you have a good point. "If I can't make a profit, its not my fault, it must be that no one else can either". Too much of a blow to the ego.
Ironically, admitting that I didn't have all the answers enabled me to go out and look for the tools I needed.
Since this thread opened I have heard from a significant number of traders who suggest that their own systems use at least some aspect of trend following. To make a simple point, it would be impossible to take a profit (or loss for that matter) unless price trended at least a little bit. Knowing this financial fact of life, one can see how silly the underlying premise of this thread is.
So once again, can one know absolutely when price will trend?
No.... Does one have to know absolutely in order to have a profitable business? Certainly not. In fact, a great number of businesses are based on the probability that a time based series will trend. In fact, if you look at insurance, gambling, and other related businesses, you will come to the conclusion (if you have the capacity to think clearly), that even a small positive edge can mean great profits. I refer those silly people who don't believe it to Las Vegas. In the aggregate they have a small edge, yet they are the ones who own all the big buildings. Get a clue folks. Oh, and Nickelscraper this isn't aimed at you. I can't help you as you seem to be clueless.
Take Care Peter
Lefty
