trend following delusion shattered

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After 120 pages and still going strong, it is clear that this thread cannot be hijacked, so please permit me this true story.

Many years ago, I was relaxing at one of London's finest dining establishments, the type that don't print prices on their menu. I felt elegant in my borrowed tuxedo as did my partner, Fiona, a sultry looking brunette who had ended her shift the previous night on my lap.

The background sound of a Russian violinist added to the ambience, as did the exquisite furniture and expensive floral arrangements. The menu, which we were now pondering, presented a dilemma. I had put last night's tab at the gentleman's club, a hefty $63, on my credit card, leaving me with only $137. A $200 limit was about the most I could get at the time - God how I long for those days.

I turned to Fiona who was now fondling the violinist's crotch. He responded by abandoning a slow Mozart fugue and launching into a frenetic rendition of Rimsky-Korsakoff's "Flight of the Bumble Bee".

"Fiona, darling, what do I have to promise you in the future so that you will now be willing to lend me d dollars, such that (p1-p0)>=d, where p0 is $137 and p1 will be the likely bill, including tip, for this evening's dinner?"

I realized that I had left myself open by including the ">" sign in the equation, but under no circumstance did I want her to feel obligated - I did invite her after all.

As the fiddler hobbled away, she looked at me lustfully.

"But p1 is an unknown," she murmured, her lips pouting.

I could hardly suppress the feelings of admiration that were welling up inside of me. Finally I had met a woman worthy of my intellectual companionship.

Did we end up staying for dinner? Am I still together with Fiona? I'll let you know on p. 220.
 
Quote from hank rollins:

maverick,

i have freely shared my calls and insight for over 4 years. my market calls are provided before the fact, and before the funds launched, often in real time. not sure why you are making the above false statement. specifically, i advised ( on this thread) no less when i entered OIL. what more do you want ?

:confused:
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What I want? How bout this:

What is a reliable method that can be applied to past price action to forecast, before entering a trade, a profitably large positive or negative number d such that (p1-p0)>=d, where p0 is the current market price and p1 will be a marketable price in the near future?

I'm looking for an answer to be posted here in plain text form. The proof of the answer is also to be posted here, as real time trading calls that specify on what basis the proposed method is being invoked

Sound familiar?


ROFLMAO
 
Todays casino rake:

8 trades 14.75 points

A trader and an economist are walking down the street and they both spy a crumpled piece of paper ahead. The trader says" That looks like a $100 bill ! ". The economist says "That's impossible. Here in London someone would have picked it up." The trader bends over takes the crumpled piece of paper, which is actually a $100 bill and says: "Yeah, you are probably right".
 

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Quote from ETLURKER:

A trader and an economist are walking down the street and they both spy a crumpled piece of paper ahead. The trader says" That looks like a $100 bill ! ". The economist says "That's impossible. Here in London someone would have picked it up." The trader bends over takes the crumpled piece of paper, which is actually a $100 bill and says: "Yeah, you are probably right".
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LOL I love that joke.....I heard it a lot in college as I am a economics major. :)
 
Quote from ETLURKER:

A trader and an economist are walking down the street and they both spy a crumpled piece of paper ahead. The trader says" That looks like a $100 bill ! ". The economist says "That's impossible. Here in London someone would have picked it up." The trader bends over takes the crumpled piece of paper, which is actually a $100 bill and says: "Yeah, you are probably right".
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In the real world, there's an institutional player hiding behind a parked car with a string leading up to the $100. As the trend trader reaches to pick up the bill, it flies away leaving the trendy with a handful of dog feces.
 
hank rollins (marketsurfer) trades trends via Gann. i think he's just stirring the pot here hoping someone will give up smthg juicy. i am too smart for this; i will not give up any of my secrets, uhh uh, no sir, no way. ain't gonna happen.

thefrigginmang!
 
Quote from NickelScalper:

In the real world, there's an institutional player hiding behind a parked car with a string leading up to the $100. As the trend trader reaches to pick up the bill, it flies away leaving the trendy with a hand full of dog feces.
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Wow, I'm quite convinced you have no idea how trends form, and are in absolutely no place to comment on their existence and use.

Here, read the Commitment of Traders reports. Commercial and fund traders are the ones who create the trends. Take soybeans, for instance. They (funds) were at historically large net short positions. Heavy rains in Brazil, along with a weakening dollar and other factors, led to a massive rush to the long side. Now they are heavily net long. Since fundamental conditions are not likely as bad as they thought, they have overbought and are starting to liquidate.

Now, go look at a daily chart of May Beans. See that linear move up? See the start of a sharp move down?

Holy shit, could those be trend? And could institutional investors actually be driving them?

www.cftc.gov

Yes, there is life beyond the tick chart. Go do some real research and check back.

Though I have respect for Hanketsurfer's opinions (even though we are on polar opposites of this issue), your ignorant posts convince me you have little value in your posts. Hence, I am here only for comic levity.
 
Quote from hanseng1:

Wow, I'm quite convinced you have no idea how trends form, and are in absolutely no place to comment on their existence and use.

Here, read the Commitment of Traders reports. Commercial and fund traders are the ones who create the trends. Take soybeans, for instance. They (funds) were at historically large net short positions. Heavy rains in Brazil, along with a weakening dollar and other factors, led to a massive rush to the long side. Now they are heavily net long. Since fundamental conditions are not likely as bad as they thought, they have overbought and are starting to liquidate.

Now, go look at a daily chart of May Beans. See that linear move up? See the start of a sharp move down?

Holy shit, could those be trend? And could institutional investors actually be driving them?

www.cftc.gov

Yes, there is life beyond the tick chart. Go do some real research and check back.

Though I have respect for Hanketsurfer's opinions (even though we are on polar opposites of this issue), your ignorant posts convince me you have little value in your posts. Hence, I am here only for comic levity.
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Your opinion of me is of no consequence.

The same goes for trends that have already happened.

Are you ready to take the trend trader challenge, or are you just going to keep talking?
 
Quote from OddTrader:

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I can only place 2 cents this bet, as this model could be practically very wrong relatively to many more experienced and knowlegeble traders. I consider myself should be too old to do this kind of formal analysis, but anyway here is my trial.

dV = Vb - Va

dV (change of value)
Va (starting value at time a with price Pa)
Vb (ending value at time b with price Pb)

Vb = Sum (Vbu, Vbd)
Where u for price up, d for down

...
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I suppose there could be something there. A live demonstration should be interesting.
 
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