For future reference, there is an absolutely fascinating divergence in the way the indices behaved pre-announcement, especially the RUT. I am sure it means something, haha! Higher rates are good for small companies?
trend following delusion shattered
- Thread starter hank rollins
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Then you are correct that I cannot give you what you need.
I failed because one trading requirement that I have is sharing responsibilities with the market. You "need" a d instead.
After any announded future event, the market reacts causing price movement. Seems that there is a reaction to the initial movement in waves so a person stays on the profitable side of the trade by accommodating the waves until the event is finally absorbed into the natural melieu of the market.
Anyone want the d's for YM and ES this afternoon??
a couple minutes to go.
JM -- I absolutely mean no offense by this comment: you are
making this way too complicated. I am guessing you've gotten
paid your whole life for complex thinking and perhaps you've
developed an association between this habit and getting paid.
Go ahead and fire back at me if you wish. I'm not judging you
one way or the other - just trying to point something out that
might prove helpful.
Showtime.
J
Any system that works can give an edge. Price trend following doesn't fit that description.
I actually anticipated your response. Your point is valid.
The method I use identifes minute directional bias a varying number of times during the day. Based on nothing other than historical testing and ongoing real-time observation while trading, I use an artificial, minimal "expected" (for lack of a better term) amount of movement based on a homemade calculation of very short-term volatility. It is a crutch that I use, and a benchmark at which time I take partial profits and move my protective stop to break-even for the remainder of the position. This crutch has no predictive value because sometimes the price does not reach it and I find myself with a loss. At other times, it may exceed that benchmark several-fold. It is simply an artificial mechanism that I use to exploit my assessment of a momentary directional bias.
I suppose you can make the argument that this initial benchmark is an expected minimum value of sorts. But it is a best-guess bet rather than a prediction or a legitimate "expected value."
This thread is not about my needs.
It's about the errors of (price) trend following.
Jase. Point scored. Big heads need to fill themselves up with big ideas. I am not trading today or I would not be posting. I am just bullshitting. But if you want to see PRIMO bullshit, go to that arb site Banjoman gave us. Pick on them for grandiose theoretical constructions. Ask them how they handle the case where the premium has expanded but cash is aggressively leading the fut. Do they short the fut and buy the cash?
Ok thats why Seykota, Henry, Eckhardt, Dunn and countless others run billions of dollars of investor money using trendfollowing models.
I have yet to see a scapler running any sort of fund. But I am sure that you can give me a reason why. Maybe you are going to buy the Red Sox from your profits scalping.
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