Quote from John Merchant:
Odd. I am in full-bore outrageous prediction mode. If I am wrong, everybody already knew I was an idiot. If I am right, I become an instant clairvoyant guru. Such gurus have no need to justify themselves with JackaNaperian logic. Besides, the market went up after the last FOMC-up following the double move pattern Jack described. So I'm going for a shocking downer.
Look for the word bracket. You do not see the word up in my post.
I am obviously more risk adverse than you are.
As I see it, there is never a reason to predict price direction as an initial action of the day. Prediction must often accompanies an orientation to pairs of actions involving entry and exit. Money is not made by either of these decisions. Money is made by being in the market in an orientation that accumulates capital. "Do I enter? is a question answered by the market when it hits an order that is placed to bound market movement. After that there is only one Q on the table.
The decision to hold is the most important single decision that can be made and made repeatedly when any market change occurs(market change is the basis of making money) and it is possible to continue making money. "Can I continue to make money with this market change?" A yes means hold. A no means reverse and then continue to make money. There is no d question.
Knowing all the possibilities for continuing to make money is not discussed in ET very much. There is a set of major possibilities and verniers for each of these. so the market is, in effect, a series of operating points where money is mde continually and the market migrates in a most orderly way from one to another. the path is determined primarily by other alternatives being successively closed until few or only one opportunity remains.
So I am definitely off topic in terms of the thread originator and the thread ursurper. i do not wish to screw up either the originator's nor the usurper's themes.