trend following delusion shattered

Status
Not open for further replies.
Quote from inandlong:



snip.....

To provide an answer - but certainly not the definitive answer - to the question "what use are trends...", trends provide upper and lower boundaries for trend lines :) which can be used to determine a change in trend.
More...

Very poignant. Only one of the two bounds changes with increased market activity. And trends overlap.

It takes a very long time for most people to move away from the concept of buying and selling. At best most people are able to buy on the right side and sell on the left side.

To be able to substitute reasoning for buying and selling is a tough chore to undertake.

If reasoning is used then the subject is making money. there are only two singular decisions that relate to making money. Buying and selling most be worked as a pair where one of them is done before the answer for other can be known. This is a very tough place to operate no matter what the subject may be.

Converting to singular decision making where each independant decision accomplishes all that can be done is a superior way to operate. This means that there is no first decision that needs a second decision to detrmine the first decision was correct.

Having boundaries and indepentant decisions to make is a whole other world.
 
Quote from Maverick1:

Indeed

Which brings to my mind one of my favorite quotes:

Never wrestle with a pig; you'll waste your time, get dirty and the pig will enjoy it

Cheers
More...

LOL

Excellent quote hope you don't mind if I use it ... :D
 
What is a reliable, publicly available method that can be applied to past price action to determine a usefully large positive or negative number d such that (p1-p0)>=d, where p0 is the current market price and p1 will be the market price in the near future?

I'm looking for your answer to be posted here, not contained in a pdf at another site, "watch me trade," "I am successful," etc. Second, the proof of your answer is also to be posted here, in the form of real time trading calls that specify on what basis your method is being invoked and a target price.
 
Quote from NickelScalper:

I'm looking for your answer to be posted here, not contained in a pdf at another site, "watch me trade," "I am successful," etc. Second, the proof of your answer is also to be posted here, in the form of real time trading calls that specify on what basis your method is being invoked and a target price.
More...

LOL I think I'm done with this thread; the rules keep changing.

If one is set against beleiving in China, he won't believe its existence even if you fly him there and put him in the middle of a rice field.

I hoped I could convince him, but this has turned into a source of entertianment instead of an informative discussion (actually it happened about page 30).

P.S. I did my work for the day. It was a nice trend trade too. :)
 
Just noticed your back. Welcome back Jack. Glad you are still well...:)



Quote from Grob109:

Not many people will be inclined to answer you because most people do not work the turf you are locked into. Inherently, it is a very high risk orientation where the risk is totally unneccessary.

Why would anyone approach doing what you describe as a way to consider to make money?

If you go to any number of FAQ sites, you will find many many alternatives that show where you are sitting is illogical compared to other approaches that are extremely successful.

Were I you Iwould spend some time figuring out how you have gotten into the traps you are in. how long you stay in a particular place is important to consider as well.
More...
 
Quote from NickelScalper:

Saying "past price" here means past market price as seen on level I, the same price used to draw a standard chart. There are many other sorts of market data available.

If you can't prove that your predictions are based solely on past price, then the exercise is pointless.
More...

From my experience that if saying prediction meaning exactly where something will be, then no it is impossible to predict. However, using software the recognizes common patterns such as support and resistance and other technical patterns, http://www.trade-ideas.com/Help.html#CARC, allows a good trader to make better guesses than someone just randomly picking a direction. At least that is how I have been in this game for 10+ years.
 
Quote from Diamondtrim:

From my experience that if saying prediction meaning exactly where something will be, then no it is impossible to predict. However, using software the recognizes common patterns such as support and resistance and other technical patterns ... allows a good trader to make better guesses than someone just randomly picking a direction. At least that is how I have been in this game for 10+ years.
More...
Congratulations on your success.

What I'm looking for is a formulation of method aside from the luck that keeps the rare practitioner of an essentially random system from going broke.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top