Many thanks Inandlong for making me laugh bigtime here. You just made my quiet day. Your sarcasm also confirmed that I was right not going to hank's new site. He is shilling very intelligently for it. But it's still shilling.
trend following delusion shattered
- Thread starter hank rollins
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Many thanks Inandlong for making me laugh bigtime here. You just made my quiet day. Your sarcasm also confirmed that I was right not going to hank's new site. He is shilling very intelligently for it. But it's still shilling.
Come on buddy, it's obvious why he's chosen to shoot himself in the foot. It's called "shilling". It usually happens when you have ulterior motives ie a new website to slickly advertise. I do give him credit for his very intelligent and slick shilling method. But I used to give him credit for a whole lot more. You're absolutely right about hank!
Quote from hank rollins:
ok, doctor.
asking questions and stimulating discussion on a MESSAGE board is playing the chump ? my credibility is intact, is yours ??
i have only treated you with respect, why the vigerous personal attack mode? yes, i questioned your methods, etc. ( as you know, i traded similar to you, before my testing and experienced showed me another better way) but never attacked you personally.
not sure why you are so angry.
I don't see any anger in him, hank. None whatsoever. But it's no surprise that you would use "anger" as a dodge. And yes, I have seen you attack inandlong in another life. Not everyone is dumb. We may not be as smart as you, but not dumb either.
It's nice to see that you guys have kissed and made up, though. Life's too good to waste on negative energy.
rubberbird... I love that name! How you came up with that one... lol!
By the tone of your posts I am assured things are going well for you. That's good to know.
I'd appreciate it if you would call a top to oil prices. I bought a new boat this year and a new vehicle to tow it with. It would be nice if I didn't have to take delivery of an unleaded gas futures contract to afford driving them around!
By the tone of your posts I am assured things are going well for you. That's good to know.
I'd appreciate it if you would call a top to oil prices. I bought a new boat this year and a new vehicle to tow it with. It would be nice if I didn't have to take delivery of an unleaded gas futures contract to afford driving them around!
I wish I could, Inandlong. Unfortunately, my clairvoyance is limited to indices and stocks. Commodities, I might as well have a dart.
Nice to hear you got a new boat. I love the water, jet-skiing works for me too. Love water-skiing also. But i'd bet your boat, although brand new, isn't as bright and shiny as Hank's. Anyway, hope you have much enjoyment on the water this summer. I think I finally feel a 50 degree day today in NY..so it's jogging time!
no boat here.
Quote from hank rollins:
no boat here.
sorry Hank...i meant yacht.
your the yacht man, bird. very nice market calls !
Quote from hank rollins:
thanks for the post, gann.....how about the goodman independent time series tests or the serial correlation coefficient?
these are standard measures. apply them to any market series and see what i am talking about.
here's some software to get you started: http://www.exetersoftware.com/cat/provalis/simstat.html
hanketsurfer,
Thank you, too. I'm not familiar with Goodman Independent Time Series Tests. But I'm familiar with serial correlation coeff.s so I talk based on that measure.
So let's put any market on SCC, on any timeframe. Obviously, as you know the answer, the results would come out as "near-random". But then let's put the results under a different view, looking into the distribution (bell-curve) of the serial correlation.
The results would end up with a significant fat tail (outlyers) out of the "normal". (Sure... this also comes down to what you weigh as a significant test, again.)
Still, as some know, trend-following trading is about catching the inconsistant outlyers to offset the "normal" condition (being chopped up) via risk management models...
Well, so it comes down to what you would consider a trend. "Is the market always trending?".... "What is a trend?" ... As for me, I answered based on the Turtle sense.
PS. I have to agree to inandlong... I don't like your hank rollins persona... Don't hang out with LongShot too much ( he's contagious)
Quote from hank rollins:
thanks for the post, gann.....how about the goodman independent time series tests or the serial correlation coefficient?
these are standard measures. apply them to any market series and see what i am talking about.
here's some software to get you started: http://www.exetersoftware.com/cat/provalis/simstat.html
Try this:
Make an indicator in a platform like Tradestation that performs a chi^2 test for normality. What it essentially creates is a moving normality measure.
What you'll see is the market moves from a normal to a non-normal distribution depending on its trend state. Though this may seem a bit obvious, it does show that the market is not always normal and random.
Also, it has been demonstrated many times that the returns do follow a random distribution (leptokurtic....non-normal), but this does not mean the movement of the instrument is random. Also, the concept of the fat-tail distribution came from an observation that stock prices tend to behave in this manner due to boom or bust (aka trend) cycles.
I'm sure you were wanting some exotic proof in the form of complicated math models, but I'm no math wiz. But I think this is proof enough that trend do exist and are provable in financial markets.
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