trend following delusion shattered

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Quote from roberk:

A genuine trend following trader would have made over a million on this trade alone.
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A Genius trend following trader would have made over a million on this trade alone. :D
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

can someone please tell me how many up/down time frames ( in whatever denomination) increase the odds of the next time frame or series of time frames being up/down?

untill the above is answered, trend remains the primary trader delusion.

regard,

surfer
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Surf,

I have been doing some work correlating price to time. If you find the correct frame of time, it will remove the noise and the trend becomes visible.

You can use a smaller timeframe to trade the now visible trend.

To borrow the words of another great trader, price will continue to move in the direction that it moves until it doesn't.

Best Regards
Oddi
 
i tend to agree with surf if it's intraday on index futs. pays off to sell the highs and buy the lows not viceversa. trend days are pretty rare compared to whipsaw that occours almost every day. i mean, look at any day chart and draw your own conclusions.
 
Quote from oddiduro:

Surf,

I have been doing some work correlating price to time. If you find the correct frame of time, it will remove the noise and the trend becomes visible.

You can use a smaller timeframe to trade the now visible trend.

To borrow the words of another great trader, price will continue to move in the direction that it moves until it doesn't.

Best Regards
Oddi
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sounds very interesting, though i guess you won't elaborate any
further, right?
 
Quote from man:

sounds very interesting, though i guess you won't elaborate any
further, right?
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If I could, I would. But then I would have use the combined methods of my three greatest mentors to get to the point.

The best I can do is say the price will theoretically move a certain distance within a certain amount of time. Calibrate your chart to this and the noise gets taken out.

Prof does something similar to find the correct time frame, but he uses volume measurements. I use mysticism, it is not remotely scientific.

For example, I may use some convoluted math process that tells me that price should move 9 points in 3 days before suffering a reversal, so then I would use a three day chart.

Best Regards
Oddi
 
Quote from psytrade:

Market its another losing system.

Buying a ten day low resulted in the attached losing system for buying 10 day lows

L < Ref(LLV(L,10),-1);

Buying 10 day highs was a loser too.
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thanks for the study. does an edge exist in buying 2-3 day declines in the sp? what does your work indicate?

thanks!

surfer
 
Quote from roberk:

What is strange about this thread is that some members have redefined 'trend following' to mean any trade that goes in any direction, even of it lasts only a few hours.
Trend following in the literature (outside of ET ) is a method hoping to find large and persistant directional trades that usually last weeks and months .

The best trend following traders will keep adding to a positive trade.
For example, say they entered with 10 contracts this eur/yen trade. As the trade went positive they would have added more, and then more the following month. A genuine trend following trader would have made over a million on this trade alone.

I wonder how many of the ET true believers in trend following took this or any of the many, many other long trends of 2006?
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Really, here is the "investopedia" definition:

"The general direction of the price of an asset or market. Trends can be thought of in varying lengths including short, intermediate and long term."

It is a fallacy to consider Trends as only long term in nature. That is a surferism.

In regards to your specific Euro/Yen trade, I agree, IF someone would have been watching that very specific market in that longer term chart/time frame and adhered to scaling into their position, they would have done marvelously.

I would venture a guess here, that far less than one percent of the traders here on ET watched that particular pair in the FOREX. There are so very many markets out there to trade that if you have a solid grasp on reading price then any market can be consistently profitable and there is no need to pull millions out of any single trade. You can always tell the traders that are less than consistent in their day-to-day trading because they are the ones that are always looking to break the bank on a single trade.
 
Quote from oddiduro:

Surf,

I have been doing some work correlating price to time. If you find the correct frame of time, it will remove the noise and the trend becomes visible.

You can use a smaller timeframe to trade the now visible trend.

To borrow the words of another great trader, price will continue to move in the direction that it moves until it doesn't.

Best Regards
Oddi
More...


thanks, oddi. what's the correct frame of time? i always enjoy your contributions here, keep em up!

surfer
 
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