trend following delusion shattered

[Buy1Sell2]

Quote from psytrade:

Well there is mean reversion too.

Not meaning to play devilas advocate however.

Even mean reversion is trend on lower time frames. This is a ridiculous thread.

 

[ProfLogic]

Quote from Buy1Sell2:

Even mean reversion is trend on lower time frames. This is a ridiculous thread.

What a brilliant statement!

 

[marketsurfer]

can someone please tell me how many up/down time frames ( in whatever denomination) increase the odds of the next time frame or series of time frames being up/down?

untill the above is answered, trend remains the primary trader delusion.

regard,

surfer

 

[ProfLogic]

Quote from marketsurfer:

can someone please tell me how many up/down time frames ( in whatever denomination) increase the odds of the next time frame or series of time frames being up/down?

untill the above is answered, trend remains the primary trader delusion.

regard,

surfer

You've created a great question. Research it for yourself and let us all know your conclusions. It should keep you busy for 4 or 5 years is my estimate.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from ProfLogic:

You've created a great question. Research it for yourself and let us all know your conclusions. It should keep you busy for 4 or 5 years is my estimate.

well, it is the very definition of trend-- a series of moves in the same direction. if trend trading makes sense, then this simple question should have an answer. since there is no answer, buying or selling a market due to the past trend makes little sense.

surfer

 

[illiquid]

Quote from Buy1Sell2:

Folks, the only thing traders have to hang their hat on is trend. This is a ridiculous thread.

I think the question here is anticipation of a trend before it occurs vs "follow" it after it's already started -- otherwise, I'm sure any trader would love a trend in any time frame, as long as it was in his direction

 

[Thunderdog]

Quote from marketsurfer:

well, it is the very definition of trend-- a series of moves in the same direction. if trend trading makes sense, then this simple question should have an answer. since there is no answer, buying or selling a market due to the past trend makes little sense.

surfer

Since you apparently know so much and are so confident in all of your assertions and conclusions, one can only surmise that you are a world class trader...right?

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from Thunderdog:

Since you apparently know so much and are so confident in all of your assertions and conclusions, one can only surmise that you are a world class trader...right?

rather than surmising personal attributes/skill sets, perhaps your considerable intellect would be better used by addressing the question and/or topic at hand.

thank you,


surfer

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from illiquid:

I think the question here is anticipation of a trend before it occurs vs "follow" it after it's already started -- otherwise, I'm sure any trader would love a trend in any time frame, as long as it was in his direction

yes. good point!

once one is directionally "in the trade", does trend become an apparent factor--its subjective. its only objective or even exists in the past.

surf

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Quote from marketsurfer:

can someone please tell me how many up/down time frames ( in whatever denomination) increase the odds of the next time frame or series of time frames being up/down?

untill the above is answered, trend remains the primary trader delusion.

regard,

surfer

Trend following has nothing to do with the next bar or series of bars being up or down. It has to do with the general direction of the trade and whether reaction highs/lows are taken out. When the overall trend is up, you are better off taking long signals. I can only assume that you started this thread as a joke, because this is basic trading 101. I will post a chart in the next post of a trend that had down bars but was definitely an uptrend.