trend following delusion shattered

[psytrade]

I agree its a misnomer to call Simons a trend follower in the classic sense. However, a quick look at sec.gov reveals that most of his positions are too large to be classic arb trades, there isnt enough liquidity to jump in and out at will and to take profits ( $200 million in altria is an example). Therefore, he is participating in a trend, probably making a directional bet. This is based on the sketchy public information about his fund that anyone can look at online.

Yes he is the smartest trader on earth by pedigree, but that in itself doesnt isolate him from the "lesser minded trend followers". Dunn remember, is a phD in theoretical physics.

Comparisons aside, Ive always thought that systematically trading stocks was more lucrative than futures. Given most of the successful funds, I'd say the equity guys have the biggest yachts.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from marketsurfer:

no offense meant. not sure what he meant by the post, there is clearly an arb fund there, among others

my issue is with the generally accepted definition of trend following, of buying higher highs and selling lower lows.

sure, simons is doing well--- he caught the right direction and held, if he is a directional trader. is he???


my point is, knowing the past trend from a price chart, does not provide any edge in entering a trade.

surf

Just to answer my rhetorical question:

Simons is clearly not a "trend follower". He runs the most sophisticated arb fund in the world, Renaissance. He is a highly skilled, world class mathematician and not even a trader.

best,

surfer

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from psytrade:

I agree its a misnomer to call Simons a trend follower in the classic sense. However, a quick look at sec.gov reveals that most of his positions are too large to be classic arb trades, there isnt enough liquidity to jump in and out at will and to take profits ( $200 million in altria is an example). Therefore, he is participating in a trend, probably making a directional bet. This is based on the sketchy public information about his fund that anyone can look at online.

the altria trade could have been held against any number of positions as a spread or arb, it has zero to do with "trend following".

surf

 

[psytrade]

I guess you'll have to interview Simons on your show and find out once and for all. Maybe you can fit him in your schedule.

 

[ecritt]

Quote from marketsurfer:

JWH runs all those companies?? !! and they are all "trend following" funds?? Dude, you are mistaken. LOL !

:eek: :eek:

14 of them are trend following programs; a few are mixtures of trend & volatility trading. There is one arb fund. John Henry runs only the fund that has his name on it. The point is that using JWH's recent performance isn't representative of the average trend following CTA. You are guilty of cherry picking and biased sampling.

 

[ProfLogic]

Quote from marketsurfer:

I have much respect for JWH and what he has accomplished.

My issue here is JWH is touted as the "poster boy" for trend following by people who write about and popularize such things. He is the top dog of trend followers, per the popularizer and best selling author of this method. therefore, his funds are assumed to be trend following funds. understand???

no, i am not on JWH board of advisors.

I can tell the amount of respect you have for the individual by the credibility your post gave him.

Oh, he isn't a "poster boy" for any trend following aficionados I know either. And to clarify for the umpteenth time . . . buying higher highs and selling lower lows isn't an act of trend following that is silly form of break out trading and that is for suicidal scalpers on a good day. In no way shape or form is that an acceptable modern day trend following strategy.

So what are you the "poster boy" for?

 

[ProfLogic]

Quote from ProfLogic:

I can tell the amount of respect you have for the individual by the credibility your post gave him.

Oh, he isn't a "poster boy" for any trend following aficionados I know either. And to clarify for the umpteenth time . . . buying higher highs and selling lower lows isn't an act of trend following that is silly form of break out trading and that is for suicidal scalpers on a good day. In no way shape or form is that an acceptable modern day trend following strategy. And definitely not inclusive of any modern TA formulations. You are truly stuck in a rut.

So what are you the "poster boy" for?

 

[steve46]

Quote from marketsurfer:

Just to answer my rhetorical question:

Simons is clearly not a "trend follower". He runs the most sophisticated arb fund in the world, Renaissance. He is a highly skilled, world class mathematician and not even a trader.

best,

surfer

I would guess that you have about as much of an idea of what Simons is or is not doing as his dog....About the best we can say is that your typing is improving, but as regards substance....zip...

On the positive side, I did get a good laugh thinking about you on any company's board of directors...That was priceless..

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from steve46:

I would guess that you have about as much of an idea of what Simons is or is not doing as his dog....About the best we can say is that your typing is improving, but as regards substance....zip...

On the positive side, I did get a good laugh thinking about you on any company's board of directors...That was priceless..

actually, i thought that comment by the professor was quite funny, also. Almost as funny as C*vel name checking me in the <b>best selling</b> market book of recent times.

however, you should really check your head and not talk about what you know NOTHING about---it's really poor form on your part.

Getting back to the topic--- SImons is seeking to raise a whopping <b> 100 BILLION </B> for his new fund. he has gathered 10-15 billion thus far for his heavily weighted in equities strategy.

Can you add anything of value to this discussion?

surf

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from ecritt:

14 of them are trend following programs; a few are mixtures of trend & volatility trading. There is one arb fund. John Henry runs only the fund that has his name on it. The point is that using JWH's recent performance isn't representative of the average trend following CTA. You are guilty of cherry picking and biased sampling.

ok. thank you for the explanation.

can you describe exactly what you mean by "tr3nd foll@wing" and how it differs from a buy/sell and hold mentality--particullarly-- how do you remove survivorship bias when judging what method is working in the present conditions---as it seems to me, the tr3nd foll@wing promoters are as guilty in cherry picken and biased sampling as you believe my post was.

thanks,

surf