trend following delusion shattered

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Quote from ProfLogic:

Absolutely. In fact I used the Stochastic as my guide when I first began calibrating the ERG about 5 years ago. The major problem with the STO was it deadheaded. It lays on the top or bottom of the chart in Trending markets. You can't have that. You have to SEE each oscillation for exactly what it is . . . strength or weakness.

It took me about a years worth of adjusting the parameters to get a large portion of the lag out of the ERG and to smooth out the choppiness but all indicators lag so it will be impossible to eliminate it all. Look at the charts I posted. The ERG has a range of (+/-100) but it rarely goes above +50/-50 even when a market spikes. I don't use the ERG to trade from anyway I use the ERG to Verify and Confirm Trend and then to Verify and Confirm where price is going in that Trend. Most traders use an indicator to trade from and I have found no consistency in that. I have found consistency in using the ERG to Verify and Confirm price which is infallible (as long as the datafeed is accurate).
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Thanks
 
Quote from Cheese:

Is the point beyond you, Stephanie?
Sweet.
:)
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I got to admit you got me there..Now I will give you ONE more chance to make your point...

What the hell is it?
 
thanks to LARS for posting JWH actual record on another thread.

imagine being a new investor, sold on "trend following"






lars22


Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 19


08-31-06 10:27 PM





Here are the result for the LAST year!

Strategic Allocation Program -16.26
Currency Strategic Allocation Program -22.20
Financial and Metals Portfolio -10.30
Worldwide Bond Program * -15.87
International Foreign Exchange Program -26.96
G-7 Currency Portfolio ** -26.47
Dollar Program * -34.31
Global Diversified Portfolio -14.48
JWH GlobalAnalytics® -10.10
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

thanks to LARS for posting JWH actual record on another thread.

imagine being a new investor in JWH, sold on "trend following"

lars22

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 19

08-31-06 10:27 PM

Here are the result for the LAST year!

Strategic Allocation Program -16.26
Currency Strategic Allocation Program -22.20
Financial and Metals Portfolio -10.30
Worldwide Bond Program * -15.87
International Foreign Exchange Program -26.96
G-7 Currency Portfolio ** -26.47
Dollar Program * -34.31
Global Diversified Portfolio -14.48
JWH GlobalAnalytics� -10.10
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Looks like you cherry picked the worst performer. How surprising.

Campbell Financial M & E (Large) -0.33
Crabel Diversified Futures Program 5.02
Winton Capital-Diversified 7.10
Capital Fund Management-Discus 29.94
Chesapeake Capital Corporation 14.44
IKOS Financial Fund 7.94
Transtrend- Enhanced Risk (USD) -5.52
John W Henry-Strategic Allocation -16.25
Sunrise Capital-Expanded Diversified 12.55
Campbell Global Diversified (Large) 0.23
Aspect Capital-Diversified 11.10
IKOS Equity Hedge Fund 4.96
Mapleridge Fund Limited 9.85
Yutaka Futures-Arbitrage 3.51
IKOS Currency Fund 9.73
Lynx Asset Management AB 6.69
CRG Partners 9.00
Transtrend- Enhanced Risk (EUR) -6.89
Rotella Standard Leverage 7.38
DUNN Capital Management- (WMA) -7.99
 
Quote from ecritt:

Looks like you cherry picked the worst performer. How surprising.

Campbell Financial M & E (Large) -0.33
Crabel Diversified Futures Program 5.02
Winton Capital-Diversified 7.10
Capital Fund Management-Discus 29.94
Chesapeake Capital Corporation 14.44
IKOS Financial Fund 7.94
Transtrend- Enhanced Risk (USD) -5.52
John W Henry-Strategic Allocation -16.25
Sunrise Capital-Expanded Diversified 12.55
Campbell Global Diversified (Large) 0.23
Aspect Capital-Diversified 11.10
IKOS Equity Hedge Fund 4.96
Mapleridge Fund Limited 9.85
Yutaka Futures-Arbitrage 3.51
IKOS Currency Fund 9.73
Lynx Asset Management AB 6.69
CRG Partners 9.00
Transtrend- Enhanced Risk (EUR) -6.89
Rotella Standard Leverage 7.38
DUNN Capital Management- (WMA) -7.99
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JWH runs all those companies?? !! and they are all "trend following" funds?? Dude, you are mistaken. LOL !

:eek: :eek: :confused:
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

thanks to LARS for posting JWH actual record on another thread.
imagine being a new investor in JWH, sold on "trend following"
lars22
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 19
08-31-06 10:27 PM
Here are the result for the LAST year!

Strategic Allocation Program -16.26
Currency Strategic Allocation Program -22.20
Financial and Metals Portfolio -10.30
Worldwide Bond Program * -15.87
International Foreign Exchange Program -26.96
G-7 Currency Portfolio ** -26.47
Dollar Program * -34.31
Global Diversified Portfolio -14.48
JWH GlobalAnalytics® -10.10
More...

Please explain what this post is suppose to accomplish? You post a response to an individual that could very well be one of your many alias, into this forum where it is evident the conversation didn't begin or belong, spread the content out in the post to make it look larger than it is and then list the "results" of some fund that is suppose to be a "Trend Following" fund, according to you and your newbie buddy. Even if the fund exits, it doesn't mean that it follows any, even middle of the road, accepted version of trend following. For all anyone knows it could follow your delusional version of breakout trading you call trend following and TA. If it does that would explain the absolutely dismal results of the fund. Are you sure you aren't on of the advisors to this fund you listed? You need to give up this worthless quest to try to convince people you know what you are talking about. The more you post in TA threads the more ridiculous you look.
 
funny surfer. At least ecritt runs a fund and has written a valuable paper on trend following.

What about James Simons fund? I hear hes a trend follower too. 35% annually and he made $1.5 billion for himself last year. I wouldn't argue with success.

If you ride a trend and it generates most of your profits, your a trend follower.
 
Quote from psytrade:

funny surfer. At least ecritt runs a fund and has written a valuable paper on trend following.

What about James Simons fund? I hear hes a trend follower too. 35% annually and he made $1.5 billion for himself last year. I wouldn't argue with success.

If you ride a trend and it generates most of your profits, your a trend follower.
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no offense meant. not sure what he meant by the post, there is clearly an arb fund there, among others

my issue is with the generally accepted definition of trend following, of buying higher highs and selling lower lows.

sure, simons is doing well--- he caught the right direction and held, if he is a directional trader. is he???


my point is, knowing the past trend from a price chart, does not provide any edge in entering a trade.

surf
 
Quote from ProfLogic:

Please explain what this post is suppose to accomplish? You post a response to an individual that could very well be one of your many alias, into this forum where it is evident the conversation didn't begin or belong, spread the content out in the post to make it look larger than it is and then list the "results" of some fund that is suppose to be a "Trend Following" fund, according to you and your newbie buddy. Even if the fund exits, it doesn't mean that it follows any, even middle of the road, accepted version of trend following. For all anyone knows it could follow your delusional version of breakout trading you call trend following and TA. If it does that would explain the absolutely dismal results of the fund. Are you sure you aren't on of the advisors to this fund you listed? You need to give up this worthless quest to try to convince people you know what you are talking about. The more you post in TA threads the more ridiculous you look.
More...


I have much respect for JWH and what he has accomplished.

My issue here is JWH is touted as the "poster boy" for trend following by people who write about and popularize such things. He is the top dog of trend followers, per the popularizer and best selling author of this method. therefore, his funds are assumed to be trend following funds. understand???

no, i am not on JWH board of advisors.
 
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