trend following delusion shattered

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Quote from Spydertrader:

I thought I recognized that ribbon of an indicator. I recently added The Ergodic to my arsenal (2 months ago). While I use it in a far different method than your use on the chart you posted, I certainly see its value - especially when used in combination with another indicator. If you achieved the previously mentioned results using The Ergodic, I can understand why people find the records unbelievable. If I posted the results of the tests I have run using this Oscillator, people wouldn't believe it either.

- Spydertrader

Disclaimer: I have never attended any seminar sponsored by or affiliated with Proflogic, Charlie Dow or any other person for that matter. I do live in the same state as the professor. Although he lives about 3 hours south of me, we have never met.
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Hey Spyder . . . nice to see you discovered the Ergodic. What a wonderful indicator. Just don't overuse it. Sometime we will have to meet and compare notes.

Here is the ERG on the Euro FX for today. Again . . . what trend? :D
 

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Quote from ProfLogic:

Another trade just set upwith another Prime Failure to short with another Verified oscillation at 7:35 am from a price top at 7:17 am at 1.2870.
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Prof

I also use Multicharts/esignal with your settings. Whilst I can see the shorting opportunity from 1.2871, price on my chart failed to reach Prime*.

So after your post, I decided to create the same chart using Ensign/esignal and it confirmed that short at Prime!

My question, what is the main factor that causes the differences between indicators when our settings are identical?

FWIW, for trading purposes, how many days of data do you keep in your 6E intraday chart?

Thanks
PV

* Actually it was close, but as you know close is relevant only for hand grenades, horseshoes and atom bombs:)
 
Quote from potemkinvillage:

Prof

I also use Multicharts/esignal with your settings. Whilst I can see the shorting opportunity from 1.2871, price on my chart failed to reach Prime*.

So after your post, I decided to create the same chart using Ensign/esignal and it confirmed that short at Prime!

My question, what is the main factor that causes the differences between indicators when our settings are identical?

FWIW, for trading purposes, how many days of data do you keep in your 6E intraday chart?

Thanks
PV

* Actually it was close, but as you know close is relevant only for hand grenades, horseshoes and atom bombs:)
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The beauty of "trading what you see" is just that. If your environment didn't show the particular Prime oscillation at 1.2871, then that wouldn't have been a Prime trading opportunity it would have been a minor one and less safe. One less trade on the day but it didn't effect the profitability for the day. You are right, close only counts . . . . that eliminates the discretion out of your trading. The more you watch price though the better you will see ALL the trading opportunities, both Prime & Minor.

I keep 90 days of data on my working charts to keep the charts loading and caching smoothly.

The differences come from the servers that give us out data. There are server farms on the East coast, Midwest, Westcental and West coast and because of minute discrepancies in the ticks occasionally this will translate into minor discrepancies in the way the ERG read the extremes of Momentum at a particular time. I've had instances where others will have Primes that I don't. It just makes it ever more clear to, "Trade what you see".
 
Quote from ProfLogic:

B1S1, isn't common sense and logic a wonderful thing!

Trading the larger chart increments is definitely a less stressful way to trade. I just try to get my trading out of the way as early in the day as possible especially now that I'm building a new home. My goal in to progress into more Swing and Position trading once the new home is finished. I live in a major farming community and already help a number of farmers with their hedging using this.

I developed my version of this over the last 11 years and have been trading it successfully now for almost 7. Started off slow and have progressed as my confidence grew based on the consistency. The big difference between us is our indicators. I used to use the RSI a long time ago but wanted something more smooth and less erratic. That is why I choose the Ergodic.

I've followed a number of your posts and commend you on your patience. Keep it up and great consistent trading to you.
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Thank you and you as well. It appears that the systems are similar in their approach albeit with different indicators. I try to keep my system very simple and I assume that you do too.
 
Quote from Buy1Sell2:

Thank you and you as well. It appears that the systems are similar in their approach albeit with different indicators. I try to keep my system very simple and I assume that you do too.
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Simple is the only way to trade.
 
Quote from ProfLogic:


I developed my version of this over the last 11 years and have been trading it successfully now for almost 7. Started off slow and have progressed as my confidence grew based on the consistency. The big difference between us is our indicators. I used to use the RSI a long time ago but wanted something more smooth and less erratic. That is why I choose the Ergodic.

I've followed a number of your posts and commend you on your patience. Keep it up and great consistent trading to you.
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I my testing I found stochastic better than ergodic (which is a bit laggy) and RSI. Have you tested with stoch, proflogic?
 
Quote from nzbryant:

I my testing I found stochastic better than ergodic (which is a bit laggy) and RSI. Have you tested with stoch, proflogic?
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Absolutely. In fact I used the Stochastic as my guide when I first began calibrating the ERG about 5 years ago. The major problem with the STO was it deadheaded. It lays on the top or bottom of the chart in Trending markets. You can't have that. You have to SEE each oscillation for exactly what it is . . . strength or weakness.

It took me about a years worth of adjusting the parameters to get a large portion of the lag out of the ERG and to smooth out the choppiness but all indicators lag so it will be impossible to eliminate it all. Look at the charts I posted. The ERG has a range of (+/-100) but it rarely goes above +50/-50 even when a market spikes. I don't use the ERG to trade from anyway I use the ERG to Verify and Confirm Trend and then to Verify and Confirm where price is going in that Trend. Most traders use an indicator to trade from and I have found no consistency in that. I have found consistency in using the ERG to Verify and Confirm price which is infallible (as long as the datafeed is accurate).
 
from the professor's web site, FYI---posted for academic study:






NOTHING IS PERFECT . . . BUT WE ARE STARTING OUT THAT WAY

Total Trade Set-Ups (To Date)
Winners Losers Break Even Win Percentage
188 181 0 7 96.28 %

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Breakdown of Trade Set-Ups

Total Trade Set-Ups
Total Points (Not Counting Current Trade Set-Up) Points Per Contract Per Trade Average
188 744 3.96
Total Trading Days
Average # of Trades Per Trading Day
Points Per Trading Day Average
Profit Per Contract Per Day Average

45 4.17 16.53 $830.68
Total Points Per Contract to Date

(01/03/05 to Present)
Total Profit Per Contract to Date

(01/03/05 to Present)

744 $37,200.00

Session Breakdown

SESSION
TIMES
TOTAL TRADES
% OF OCCURRENCE

Morning
9:30 AM - 11:59 AM EST
83 44.1 %
Afternoon
2:00 PM - 4:15 PM EST
50 26.6 %
Pre-Market
8:00 AM - 9:29 AM EST
12 6.4 %
Lunch
12 Noon - 1:59 PM EST
35 18.6 %
After Market
4:45 PM - 7:59 AM EST
8 4.3 %

Monthly & Weekly Point Totals

MONTH WEEK 1 WEEK 2 WEEK 3 WEEK 4 WEEK 5 TOTAL Ave. Pts. Per

January 109 Points 79 Points 70 Points 76 Points 16 Points 350 Points 70 Points
February 36 Points 84 Points 55 Points 41 Points 47 Points 263 Points 52.6 Points
March 100 Points 31 Points 131 Points
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
Totals 245 Points 194 Points 125 Points 117 Points 63 Points 744 Points
Ave. Pts Per 81.7 Points Points 62.5 Points 58.5 Points 31.5 Points Points

Last Trade Set-Up for 2004 was a SHORT at 1218.00 on the December 31st, 2004, at 03:31 pm.

DATE TIME PRICE BUY/SELL PROFIT/LOSS

01/02/05 06:19 pm 1214.00 Buy +4

01/03/05 09:48 pm 1220.00 Sell +6

01/03/05 11:10 am 1209.00 Buy +11

01/03/04 11:59 am 1211.00 Sell +2

01/04/05 10:04 am 1206.00 Buy +5

01/04/05 10:17 am 1207.00 Sell +1

01/04/05 02:50 pm 1188.00 Buy +19

01/05/05 10:21 am 1194.00 Sell +6

01/05/05 11:30 am 1190.00 Buy +4

01/05/05 11:50 am 1192.00 Sell +2

01/05/05 12:51 pm 1088.00 Buy +4

01/05/05 03:17 pm 1092.00 Sell +4

01/06/05 11:00 am 1186.00 Buy +6

01/06/05 02:40 pm 1193.00 Sell +7

01/06/05 03:30 pm 1189.00 Buy +4

01/06/05 03:50 pm 1191.00 Sell +2

01/07/05 08:27 am 1189.00 Buy +2

01/07/05 10:08 am 1192.00 Sell +3

01/07/05 10:48 am 1185.00 Buy +7

01/07/05 11:35 am 1192.00 Sell +7

01/07/05 12:22 pm 1191.00 Buy +1

01/07/05 12:39 pm 1193.00 Sell +2

01/10/05 09:34 am 1186.00 Buy +7

01/10/05 02:30 pm 1195.00 Sell +9

01/10/05 03:37 pm 1189.00 Buy +6

01/11/05 08:04 am 1189.00 Sell 0 (BREAK EVEN)

01/11/05 10:52 am 1185.00 Buy +4

01/11/05 11:51 am 1187.00 Sell +2

01/11/05 01:25 pm 1184.00 Buy +3

01/12/05 08:30 am 1187.00 Sell +3

01/12/05 10:58 pm 1178.00 Buy +9

01/12/05 12:42 pm 1185.00 Sell +7

01/12/05 02:49 pm 1183.00 Buy +2

01/13/05 10:39 am 1188.00 Sell +5

01/14/05 09:50 am 1180.00 Buy +8

01/14/05 10:06 am 1181.00 Sell +1

01/14/05 10:12 am 1180.00 Buy +1

01/14/05 12:40 pm 1186.00 Sell +6

01/14/05 02:18 pm 1183.00 Buy +3

01/14/05 03:55 pm 1186.00 Sell +3

01/16/04 07:18 pm 1185.00 Buy +1

01/17/05 07:40 pm 1186.00 Sell +1

01/18/05 10:24 am 1184.00 Buy +2

01/19/05 09:37 am 1196.00 Sell +8

01/19/05 09:57 am 1195.00 Buy +1

01/19/05 10:05 am 1195.00 Sell 0 (BREAK EVEN)

01/19/05 12:30 pm 1191.00 Buy +4

01/19/04 01:24 pm 1193.00 Sell +2

01/19/05 02:17 pm 1191.00 Buy +2

01/19/05 02:36 pm 1193.00 Sell +2

01/20/05 10:01 am 1179.00 Buy +14

01/20/05 11:21 am 1181.00 Sell +2

01/20/05 11:28 am 1180.00 Buy +1

01/20/05 11:53 am 1182.00 Sell +2

01/20/05 02:06 pm 1177.00 Buy +5

01/20/05 02:20 pm 1181.00 Sell +4

01/21/05 09:56 am 1177.00 Buy +4

01/21/05 10:09 am 1178.00 Sell +1

01/21/05 10:21 am 1177.00 Buy +1

01/21/05 11:36 am 1179.00 Sell +2

01/21/05 03:19 pm 1170.00 Buy +9

01/21/05 03:29 pm 1172.00 Sell +2

01/24/05 10:12 am 1170.00 Buy +2

01/24/05 10:38 am 1172.00 Sell +2

01/24/05 11:16 am 1170.00 Buy +2

01/24/05 12:07 pm 1172.00 Sell +2
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

from the professor's web site, FYI---posted for academic study:
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First, allow me to clarify that this information is not on my website and hasn't been for almost a year. The 2006 data is even better. Second, allow me to state that, yes, I have a website but it is not open to the public so don't even ask for access.

Surfer here, has purposely deleted the detailed explanation of this page as to make himself look like he is exposing something. What he is exposing is, as usual, himself. Please zip it up surf. If you are going to take this information out of context are you at least going to be man enough to admit it to all the ETers here or do you want me to post the exact detailed explanation of this data on the like page and expose you further as a manipulator and a liar? You make the call.

Personally, I have explained this information to you numerous times. If for some rare ailment you can no longer understand English I would be more than glad to put it in a comparable language for you one more time.
 
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