trend following delusion shattered

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Quote from Yee Sian:

I am not too concerned with an individual's opinion of the defintion of "trend" That was a good effort nonetheless.

Perhaps one could examine the dictionary's definition of the word, and work on from there.

"Trend
1. The general direction in which something tends to move.
2. A general tendency or inclination. See Synonyms at tendency.
3. Current style; vogue: the latest trend in fashion.

intr.v. trend·ed, trend·ing, trends
1. To extend, incline, or veer in a specified direction: The prevailing wind trends east-northeast.
2. To show a general tendency; tend: “The gender gap was trending down” (James J. Kilpatrick)." (http://dictionary.reference.com/bro...://www.seykota.com/tribe/TSP/Trends/index.htm)

Ed is by no means, a dictionary, but I find his definition of the word useful for discussion here. Why the usage of the phrase, "higher highs, lower lows", when one can by a simple subtraction, determine the direction of the trend, according to his definition?
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You began here by suggesting that we develop a definition.

I did.

It is simple and accurate, and it shows trend from its origin..

Mr. Seykota's definition lacks strength. One could have a price series that moved in any direction but as long as it closed one tick higher at the end it would constitute an up trend. For a trader, that is not useful, nor is it accurate. It does not capture the spirit of the word "trend".....

I will continue to use my definition as it is more accurate.

Thank you for your wonderful suggestion.

Steve
 
Quote from steve46:

You began here by suggesting that we develop a definition.

I did.

It is simple and accurate, and it shows trend from its origin..

Mr. Seykota's definition lacks strength. One could have a price series that moved in any direction but as long as it closed one tick higher at the end it would constitute an up trend. For a trader, that is not useful, nor is it accurate. It does not capture the spirit of the word "trend".....

I will continue to use my definition as it is more accurate.

Thank you for your wonderful suggestion.

Steve
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I suppose there are some emotions you attach to the word "trend". What you mean by "shows trend from its origin"?

"One could have a price series that moved in any direction but as long as it closed one tick higher at the end it would constitute an up trend."

Does a word need to be "useful" for it to be "accurate" as a definition?
 
I don't notice any emotion in the description I presented.

As to the idea of useful...Yes, I prefer that a definition be useful and accurate.

Once again my comment is simple. According to Mr. Seykota's definition, price could wander in any direction for an unlimited amount of time. It could move mostly down for instance, and then at the end up to exceed the starting point by one tick. According to Mr. Seykota's definition, that would be an "uptrend" and yet most of the movement would have been down until the end...

For a short time frame, perhaps Mr. Seykota's definition is usable but as soon as one moves to a longer time frame, it distorts the idea of trend.

Simple. No emotion, just description.

Steve


"Shows trend from its origin".....If we look at one bar or candle and it shows a higher high AND and higher low from the previous bar or candle, that is the start or the origin of a trend. It is the smallest unit of "trend" that is both accurate and useful to a trader.
 
Quote from steve46:

I don't notice any emotion in the description I presented.

As to the idea of useful...Yes, I prefer that a definition be useful and accurate.

Once again my comment is simple. According to Mr. Seykota's definition, price could wander in any direction for an unlimited amount of time. It could move mostly down for instance, and then at the end up to exceed the starting point by one tick. According to Mr. Seykota's definition, that would be an "uptrend" and yet most of the movement would have been down until the end...

For a short time frame, perhaps Mr. Seykota's definition is usable but as soon as one moves to a longer time frame, it distorts the idea of trend.

Simple. No emotion, just description.

Steve
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Perhaps an instance would be your statement, "Mr. Seykota's definition lacks strength." People usually associate strength with a gut feeling of power.

"It does not capture the spirit of the word "trend"....."
http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/spirit
Definitions of the word "spirit" in dictionary.com tends to include words like "mood", "feeling", and "emotion"

"it distorts the idea of trend"

Is there a preset notion you have of a "trend"? Perhaps the one you have in mind is that of a straight line. If so, are you allowing this notion of yours to tamper with the manner in which you fix the definition of the word?
 
Here is today's chart of the ES market. According to Mr. Seykota's definition this is a downtrending day.

Does this definition help you...It does not help me....

For me this is a consolidation day, and using 5 min candles, has no significant trend.

If by the end of the day price has moved up just one tick past the open, according to Mr. Seykota this is an up trending day...

Again does this help in some way? I don't see how...
 

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Quote from steve46:

Here is today's chart of the ES market. According to Mr. Seykota's definition this is a downtrending day.

Does this definition help you...It does not help me....

For me this is a consolidation day, and using 5 min candles, has no significant trend.

If by the end of the day price has moved up just one tick past the open, according to Mr. Seykota this is an up trending day...

Again does this help in some way? I don't see how...
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"As to the idea of useful...Yes, I prefer that a definition be useful and accurate."

I do not why there is a prerequisite for a definition to be "useful" before it is valid. Usefulness is ambiguous, and varies from person to person.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

it colors many people's perceptions......

surf
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Perhaps the manner in which a person trades is derivative of the person's emotions. I suppose it is the emotions that colors the person's perceptions, not the trading style. It is a good observation, but to base your conclusions on my perception of things, from the manner in which I trade is invalid.
 
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