trend following delusion shattered

Status
Not open for further replies.
Quote from hank rollins:

LOL, nickel. these guys have no clue regarding the point you are making. let them keep believing in spurious correlations and visual illusions, our money has to come from someone.

:D
More...
Right on.
 
Yo, brotha, right on, power to the people!

By the way, you have inspired me to have another T-Shirt printed up. On the front, this one will say

"I believe in spurious corellations" and underneath a picture of Einstein.

On the back:

"and visual illusions"

and underneath this one a picture of MarketSmurfer. Surely you will send me a wallet size photo from which to print my shirts.

:D
 
Quote from Grob109:

How many trades do you think were possible if you slipped down to the five minute chart with the indicators, etc.? 1, 3, 5, 7???
More...

I try to take the big moves, not hopping in and out every 15 minutes. By trading in smaller timeframes you risk to miss 1 entry; and that might be THE entry of the day, the difference between small profits and big profits. I got 5 signals to go long after the opening. Each signal was profitable, but the problem is: where to take profit, knowing that the trend will stay long? And will the correction be big enough to reenter at a better price? You risk to get out at the wrong time, so stay in the trend as long as possible. And more trades means more slippage, more commissions and more energy to do it right.

If have tested years to find out which combination of indicators gave the best results over more than 1000 trades. And i trade in multiple timeframes.

Many people don't realize what return you can have just by trading the trend (that doesn't exist according to some people).
 
Quote from spike500:

I try to take the big moves, not hopping in and out every 15 minutes. By trading in smaller timeframes you risk to miss 1 entry; and that might be THE entry of the day, the difference between small profits and big profits. I got 5 signals to go long after the opening. Each signal was profitable, but the problem is: where to take profit, knowing that the trend will stay long? And will the correction be big enough to reenter at a better price? You risk to get out at the wrong time, so stay in the trend as long as possible. And more trades means more slippage, more commissions and more energy to do it right.

If have tested years to find out which combination of indicators gave the best results over more than 1000 trades. And i trade in multiple timeframes.

Many people don't realize what return you can have just by trading the trend (that doesn't exist according to some people).
More...

Thanks so much for your reply.

Its fairly clear that you have reached the "no sweat" part of steady accumulation of capital

That fractal does give a good feeling for "nobody is going to fall off the edge of the earth" context.

I agree that you can trade "inside" of the slower fractals with smaller linked trades and even go to "position" if your indicators are signalling multi day movement with strength (the trending days patterns).

Using the overdriven indicator is a very swift refinement. Especially as an leading exit signal. When you see it leaving being overdriven you still can use another indicator as the final signal for reversing or just exiting to get flat.

thanks again.
 
Quote from hank rollins:

the system stopped working in the nasdaq over a year ago. i adapted it for the DJIA, and currently OIL. i am not sure what you mean, my entries are profitable with continuations not reversals.( except on rare occassions like the recent oil trade) see "surf report" on the journal thread for numerous chart examples. kindly explain what you mean and i'll try to answer.

best wishes
More...

What I meant was that if your call says that price will be at 50.00 around 14:00est what will the difference between your call and actual price around 14:00 est . Basically what is the price accuracy ? 10-15 cents in oil from nearest peak( bottom)?
My experience says that peaks and bottoms can be forecasted more accurately then actual price at those peaks and bottoms.
 
Quote from Walther:

What I meant was that if your call says that price will be at 50.00 around 14:00est what will the difference between your call and actual price around 14:00 est . Basically what is the price accuracy ? 10-15 cents in oil from nearest peak( bottom)?
My experience says that peaks and bottoms can be forecasted more accurately then actual price at those peaks and bottoms.
More...



my calls don't say things like " price will be @50.00 around 14:00 est". i do post an occasional speculation like " i believe oil will be at or near 50 within 30 days"--however, these are not trading calls--simply speculations.

my trading calls are either go long or go short OR i am long or short at this time, this instrument at a particular price, rarely do i post targets.

hope this clarifies.
 
Quote from Lefty62151:

Yo, brotha, right on, power to the people!

By the way, you have inspired me to have another T-Shirt printed up. On the front, this one will say

"I believe in spurious corellations" and underneath a picture of Einstein.

On the back:

"and visual illusions"

and underneath this one a picture of MarketSmurfer. Surely you will send me a wallet size photo from which to print my shirts.

:D
More...



:D would you like that autographed ? :D
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top