trend following delusion shattered

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stargrazer

Check this out...........anyone can "understand" just by knowing the basics of trend following.

I am not setup to post a chart but if i did you would see price and possibly the opening trade lines. The rest my friend is upstairs, i do not have a photographic mind ( i should be so lucky) but i assure you i can visualize a lot more than a bunch of rubbish cluttering up a perfectly good chart service.

The beauty of trend following a 5 minute time frame (ES) is the freedom of choice. You visualize an upcoming breakout and if indeed you get follow .........."Houston, We have a trend".

Once you see your odds play start to bear fruit, your main and most difficult job is over. Now your job is to READ the clues of the established trend that a couple minutes earlier was simply something you visualized in your mind. (face it, all traders have a vision of profits when they enter a trade, the difference simply is that winning traders have learned how to manage said trade once filled. The majority just HOPE it follows through). Correct?

Now your job of order entry is over, now you become a manager, your job now is to follow the clues the established trend is going to flash to your brain. The clues will allow you to make intuitive or chiseled in stone decisions. Either way decisions are part and parcel of the game, if you are a person that "chews on it" or "waffles" because you are insecure in your trading skills then more chart "face time" is required for you to become a player. Size is immaterial, playing good tactics is what counts.

The rest is easy (and i have a fault line in my own trading that has me getting out of beautiful trends early ), you READ the clues , basic everyday clues in deciding if the trend will continue, consolidate, retrace, reverse. Thats it. Once you ring the register, then start over.

The choice part and the freedom of daytrading is simple you might meet the daily nut in a 1/2 hour or a couple hours. hit the nut and you have the option to shut down the box and go have some fun. Good luck in 2007..... KISS _that is not to slam, it is to get some to lighten up on those charts that look like something out of MAD magazine. Why do math nerds go crazy later in life? :D
 
Quote from bighog:

marketsurfer is still lost
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with all due respect, bighog--- what you are describing by visualization is guesing then applying money management to control the position. nothing wrong with this, just call it what it is. sure, you can imagine what the market will do next but there is no edge there--unless you are entering the mystical realm- which, if this is the case, i bow out of the conversation.

while i am a believer in the power of visualization in obtaining things for yourself, sports and the like--- visualizing a future outcome of order imbalances is pure fantasy.

back to the beach.

regards,

surfer
 
Quote from ProfLogic:

"

I agree but the delusion exists in those that believe that consistency can never be achieved.

This is not meant as a slam Surf or to create an argument but your profit from your short in the DOW evaporated again today NOT because of some unforeseen freak of nature but simply the Trend playing itself out and continuing on its way. I told you TWO MONTHS ago the the DOW was in a Bull Trend and would continue until it reverses. From then until now there has been no oscillation created IN REAL-TIME that would have given one the heads-up a reversal was created. For the last TWO MONTHS the Trend that was strongly establishing in the DOW has continued to play out. Not a "pretty picture" of the past but a perfectly consistant snap shot of the past that is continuing to play out through today.
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hello professor,

thank you for the cogent and non personal attack reply to my querry. however, of course, i don't agree with much of what you wrote.
do you realize by saying what you are saying, by default, you are able to predict when an order imbalance will take place hence move the market in an exacting manner. the truth is, no one knows when XYZ fund, large speculator george, or any of the commercial interests will decide to buy/sell creating said imbalance thus throwing price.

happy new year!

surfer
 
Quote from man:

right. let me guess: time machine! it starts to move,
then we go back in time and follow before it starts,
right?
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Your guesser may be broken.

If you were to want to know and if you were to want to make use of the knowledge to make money, then you would begin to move (grow in knowledge, skills and experience) from where you are to a better place.

If you look at the posted chart on AKAM, you can see where another person is in a tough place. You may be in that same kind of place. I do trade AKAM and it makes a lot of money for me on occassion; I cetainly do not have a chart like the one posted.

I would say that most people are not going to take their time to help you out of where you are. This because of how you come on to others. It is just an unfortuate situation here in ET.

Attached is the chart I use to know in advance a trend is starting. I also used a set of equations (7) a while back before computer based charting became useful.

You can pick up and read Channels for Building Wealth as a first read on using trends in making money. PVT is what I use to trade stocks like AKAM; Vectors are the basic tool component that precludes your guessing time machine.

Most people who are able to grow and become wealthy have a common attribute: they ask questions to learn.
 

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Quote from stargrazer:

When you post it, can you post the location of your trades?
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Sorry this took so long.

Here is the eMini Dow chart since the end of September 06. The Primary Trend leading into this time frame was BULL and still is. To repeat, all of the labels, with the exception of the arrows and the descriptions are computer generated.
 

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Quote from marketsurfer:

. . . do you realize by saying what you are saying, by default, you are able to predict when an order imbalance will take place hence move the market in an exacting manner. the truth is, no one knows when XYZ fund, large speculator george, or any of the commercial interests will decide to buy/sell creating said imbalance thus throwing price.

happy new year!

surfer
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Not predict but see the oscillation that triggers the reversal in real-time.

We were short the Indices prior to 9/11 because price was already in a strong Bear Trend across the board and making new lows.
We were short the Indices prior to the London bombing because price gave us reversal oscillations the night before.
We were short prior to both "fat finger" trades in the eMini NASDAQ during the Summer of 2004 because price gave us a reversal oscillation prior to the moves.
We were short cattle prior to the announcement of Mad Cow here in the US because price gave us a reversal oscillation the day before.
We were long the grains coming into harvest this year because price gave us confirmed bottoms in ALL of them, each in a strong BULL market. (Grain markets rarely go up at harvest . . . this year they did!)

The list only gets bigger because we believe that the collective and individual markets are smarter than any single individual or fund trading in them. You don't believe that . . . oh well. The markets, and more specifically, PRICE, is perfect and is never wrong. It's when WE as traders try to subject what WE think, want, wish or hope the markets to do that WE get are proverbial asses handed to us.

What I do works best in the Indices, currencies, ag markets, commodities, softs and just about anything except individual stocks. It works in stocks too but the consistency percentage is a little less. This is because stocks are individual market vehicles not accumulative market vehicles and thus lend themselves to corruption.

I can't help your skepticism. I tell traders that being a skeptic is healthy and a needed asset to the longevity of anyone wanting to make a living at this. One MUST verify whatever they believe works because when push comes to shove, THEY are the ones placing the trades and pulling the trigger. If they aren't confident in their beliefs, they will eventually fail. But just as being skeptical is an asset, being closed minded is slow suicide.
 
Quote from ProfLogic:

Not predict but see the oscillation that triggers the reversal in real-time.

We were short the Indices prior to 9/11 because price was already in a strong Bear Trend across the board and making new lows.......

.
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You are confusing cause and effect. The oscillations are the effect, not the cause--hence the incongruency of the technique.

Although, I apprieciate the anecdotal evidence presented in your writings--- even if accurate, it still remains non testable and anchored in seeing the past.

Regards,

surfer
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

You are confusing cause and effect. The oscillations are the effect, not the cause--hence the incongruency of the technique.

Although, I apprieciate the anecdotal evidence presented in your writings--- even if accurate, it still remains non testable and anchored in seeing the past.

Regards,

surfer
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Price is the cause . . . the oscillations are the effect.

It is testable but you have repeatedly refused to take the effort to test it. Just because YOU say it isn't testable doesn't make it so. I say . . . prove it or disprove it for yourself. You have done neither and until you do one or the other your opinion on what I do doesn't hold any weight. Some have tested it and are happy with their results. Some didn't have the patience or focus to follow the process through. Such is life.

Personally I don't care whether you test it or not. This environment is a "zero sum game" and I have to make my money from those trading the other side of MY trend regardless.

The only thing "anchored in the past" is your opinion of the consistant tradability of these markets.

Peace, Good Health &
Happy New Year

Wm. "Bill" Schamp
ProfLogic
 
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