trend following delusion shattered
- Thread starter hank rollins
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That's probably what some call 'the Trend'. It's OK for those who know how to find it.
Great friend!
Why evade? I put you down as a nay, your subsequent silence indicating acquiescence. And you were wrong.
If you mean my answer to the question about randomness in the market, I stand by it.
No. I was quoting your answer in this post :
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=715995#post715995
Simple question, wrong answer.
If it's a given beforehand that trends of a certain type are going to be introduced into the data, then the price curve is predictable on that basis.
This never happens in the real world, though.
Which is what your reply should have been then.
Agreed.
Third and last chart to be posted:
Short at 12.30 (exchange time) at 1175 and still short.
total for today till now:
long 8 points
short 7 points and position still open
Total 15 points or 75% return on 1000$ margin per contract.
Trendfollowers can take high leverages without high risk because they follow the trend. But you must believe trends do exist and you must be able to find them.
PS: if ever the answer is found wether prices are random or not, if trends do exist or not and what the exact definition is of all these words, please let me know, because i think, as a newbie, that these things must be very important to trading.
Leaves me with the last problem to solve: mathematically there is a problem with my returns, but i will probably have lots of luck.
Short at 12.30 (exchange time) at 1175 and still short.
total for today till now:
long 8 points
short 7 points and position still open
Total 15 points or 75% return on 1000$ margin per contract.
Trendfollowers can take high leverages without high risk because they follow the trend. But you must believe trends do exist and you must be able to find them.
PS: if ever the answer is found wether prices are random or not, if trends do exist or not and what the exact definition is of all these words, please let me know, because i think, as a newbie, that these things must be very important to trading.
Leaves me with the last problem to solve: mathematically there is a problem with my returns, but i will probably have lots of luck.
So, finally, after all the posts, we've come to an conclusion that there needs to be a "common definition" of what a "trend" is... via thoughts on noise and random...
Well... I feel that programmers are better than discretionary or "subjective" takers on coming up with a definition... so... programmers...
What would be a good pseudocode for a trend for a Base Class (Abstract Data Type)?
Well... I feel that programmers are better than discretionary or "subjective" takers on coming up with a definition... so... programmers...
What would be a good pseudocode for a trend for a Base Class (Abstract Data Type)?
Up Trend is a succession of higher highs and higher lows. Minimum of two (2) data points or bars.
Down trend is a succession of lower highs and lower lows.
Minimum of two (2) data points or bars.
There you go children, now back outside to play. We'll call you when dinner is ready.
Down trend is a succession of lower highs and lower lows.
Minimum of two (2) data points or bars.
There you go children, now back outside to play. We'll call you when dinner is ready.
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