Trend Following--Another Nail In The Coffin

Quote from HolyGrail:

I love it when people say a method I have been using for 10 years does not work and is statistically insignifcant. It just means it will work for another 10 years.

For those doubters I challenge you to trade consistently against strong trends and exit your postion BEFORE a new downward trend starts. See how much money you make. If your theories are correct you should be able to retire very soon.
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Agreed. Put your money where your mouth is. I enjoy trading with fundamental trends and have been able to live very comfortably doing so.
 
Quote from Lights:

storm clouds are looming above and u hear thunder. it begins to rain. it will continue to rain until it isn't raining anymore.
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are you a seykota tribe member, lights??

thanks,

surf
 
Wannabe Sage. America is full of those "sage types".

All he needs is a bestseller. The trading tribe apparently only sold 1000 copies.
 
Food for thought: I ran some stats on
S&P 500 going back to 1950.


Likelihood of price remaining above 200dma at least 200 days is about once every 2.7 yrs. Same likelihood for price below 200dma at least 200days is once every 11 years.

That pretty much says that sustainable trends do exist relative to some metric
(in this case 200dma). And that biases exist as well. Pick any year to go long on the basic mechanical ma crossover and you have about a 1 in 3 chance of riding
it for close to a year (10 months). Try going short on that signal and your chance has diminished radically.

Strip away the Rorschach visual trend definitions, and underneath there are underlying objective statistics that can be utilized. Unfortunately, far too few books cover this type of approach.
The deluge of TA books are pretty much subjective and worthless.
 
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