Trend Day Tuesday

Quote from Brandonf:

You probably would have, but as anyone who is in the room can attest I very rarely give buys or sells into numbers, but when I do I am right almost all the time. It only happens 8 or 9 times a year though.

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Brandon, my comment about clueless, lucky people posting only the good moves wasn't directed at you, as I've found you to be pretty honorable about showing both the good and the bad. We may disagree on whether the first 20min today was a wide range, and we may disagree about how the market would have responded to unusually good 10a numbers, but there's no disagreement as to whether you're willing to show the warts and all. BTW, very good call. :)
 
Quote from Magna:

Brandon, my comment about clueless, lucky people posting only the good moves wasn't directed at you, as I've found you to be pretty honorable about showing both the good and the bad. We may disagree on whether the first 20min today was a wide range, and we may disagree about how the market would have responded to unusually good 10a numbers, but there's no disagreement as to whether you're willing to show the warts and all. BTW, very good call. :)
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Slurp slurp...
 
Entries from 40/45. Taking gains off in here on half. will hodl the rest with b/e stop with a target of closing it into the close of the market. 26 .

Brandon
 
Quote from Brandonf:

Entries from 40/45. Taking gains off in here on half. will hodl the rest with b/e stop with a target of closing it into the close of the market. 26 .

Brandon
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Moving stops to 22.38.

B
 
Quote from acrary:



My research shows NR tends to beget NR and WR tends to beget WR. Since there has to be a transition between the two, try looking for the transition periods. Try thinking in terms of NR with indecision such as a tight doji (open near close with tight range).
My stuff shows big moves tend to happen when there is a high degree of indecision.
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Indecision means tight ranges so you would expect NR to beget WR and not NR, or perhaps you have some other way to define indecision?
 
Quote from electron:



Indecision means tight ranges so you would expect NR to beget WR and not NR, or perhaps you have some other way to define indecision?
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Sorry electron, I'm purposely being vague because volatility breakouts is my most profitable method. I'll just say that indecision is not a black or white issue. It's more of a qualitative issue. For instance, if today's range is less than yesterday's, then it would indicate some indecision. If it were the smallest range of the past 10 days it would indicate more indecision. Now if it also had 3x the volume than any of the past 10 days it would indicate even more indecision. And if the trading day was an inside day as opposed to a tiny trend day it would be even more indecisive.

The point I was getting at was small ranges by themselves don't indicate anything. man, myself, and others have found that out by doing simple correllation tests. However, we also know that ranges don't stay tight forever because we also see big ranges in the data. Therefore the key is to find the points where the change from small range to wider ranges take place. That is the area of opportunity in volatility expansion trading.
 
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