Treasury Discussing to bring back 30 YR Bond

Quote from mcurto:

Bring it on baby. As for surpluses, those were simply a function of our bubble economy in the late 90's and excessive tax collections which no longer exist since that money remains in our pockets through tax cuts. It was nuts on the floor today, cash 30-yr was down about 5 points at its lows and the futures traded to 113-15. Heard some curve trader got crushed today, sold 1000 NOB's 1:1 ratio on the low of the day in the Bond. Nice little quiet rally rest of the day. This definitely makes things more interesting with putting on yield curve trades at this point, must be very CAREFUL.
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I wish I had done a trial of your squawk.

Do you still have a free trial?

nitro
 
According to Greenie, he said today that the reissuance of the 30 will not ease the current shape of the yield curve.

Hard to believe, but who am I to argue with Greenie?

nitro
 
It seemed like at some point the Treasury was going to reissue the 30-year regardless because of the "all-out" denial type rhetoric that John Snow and others used. They just wanted to keep long term yields as low as possible before we actually start to see "real" inflation. Tomorrow could definitely make things interesting if non-farm payrolls is around 50,000. That would definitely still have Greenspan scratching his head about the low yield "conundrum" in the long end of the curve.
 
it's all starting to fall into place ....

Central Bankers worldwide are waving the "no inflation" sign...

junk bond market is dysfunctioning............

30 year reissue trial balloon..............

General Motors = General Junk

red ink is coming out of a fire hose...............

a few hedge funds blow up and we have a reason to trade gold again.................

it feels like the 1970's all over again
 
Hit the nail right on the head, and don't forget about Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Did you read the Paul Volcker article in the Washington Post couple weeks ago? It was an editorial called "Skating on Thin Ice" or something like that. Makes some of the exact same points that we could be in trouble and there maybe be an impending "financial crisis". Tough words to hear from a guy that took care of some huge problems from the 1970's.
 
I will tell you what I see:

1) Look at the way NQ reacts to interest rate changes. It really does not like it and NDX stocks look really heavy to me.

2) ES and YM on the other hand don't react so badly to interest rate rises (or news that would cause higher interest rates, e.g., good Unemp #s), but are held back because ES is not going far without NQ and YM is not going far without ES.

3) When it is not interest rate concerns, it is oil getting out of control that seems to put the break on SIFs.

Take all that and add the CDS spreads widening in the corporate bond market, the FRE/FNM situation, and one wonders what valuations of stocks would cause one to break out of this range to the upside.

Add to that seasonal patterns of inflows into the stock market suggest that we are stuck in a trading range until some coherent catalyst affects "ALL" stocks equally positively. I have no idea what that would be...probably a resolution to the IRAQ war and world stabilization.

nitro
 
Quote from nitro:

I will tell you what I see:

1) Look at the way NQ reacts to interest rate changes. It really does not like it and NDX stocks look really heavy to me.

2) ES and YM on the other hand don't react so badly to interest rate rises (or news that would cause higher interest rates, e.g., good Unemp #s), but are held back because ES is not going far without NQ and YM is not going far without ES.

3) When it is not interest rate concerns, it is oil getting out of control that seems to put the break on SIFs.

Take all that and add the CDS spreads widening in the corporate bond market, the FRE/FNM situation, and one wonders what valuations of stocks would cause one to break out of this range to the upside.

Add to that seasonal patterns of inflows into the stock market suggest that we are stuck in a trading range until some coherent catalyst affects "ALL" stocks equally positively. I have no idea what that would be...probably a resolution to the IRAQ war and world stabilization.

nitro
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The spreads were due to rise in any event, they've been narrow for a while relatively. As for 'stability', that's wishful thinking with a few million muslims who would LOVE to see us trip and fall. I think after 9/11, there's a new pandora's box, and that box isn't going to be closed anytime soon. Perhaps not even in my lifetime..

DOOOOOOOM :D

-c
 
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