Trajectories and law of large numbers!!

S

S2007S

It's that time again....

Not many people care to pay attention to these types of numbers, but after looking at some these gains in just 1 month I find it almost impossible that the rate these markets are moving and the amount of market cap being added to these tech heavy stocks that the trajectory of what is occurring will be limited

For instance amazon has added 287 billion in market cap in less than 3 weeks,Apple over 300 billion ..msft nearly half a trillion.....keeping at these market gains and moves would mean these companies being worth many many many multiple trillions more than what they are worth now in only a few months and earnings not being able to keep up with market values...

Basically law of large numbers would be working against these Ludacris short term market cap gains.
 
Market is overcooked short term, but under either a "no recession and rate-cuts timing chatter begins" or "mild recession and actual cuts occur" scenario I'm expecting 19k NDX this time next year.

That's the baseline. Stocks will substantially exceed that on the upside if and when a glide path back to ZIRP becomes clear, and house prices will start rising 10-25% per year if deep cuts do occur.
 
Specterx said:
Market is overcooked short term, but under either a "no recession and rate-cuts timing chatter begins" or "mild recession and actual cuts occur" scenario I'm expecting 19k NDX this time next year.

That's the baseline. Stocks will substantially exceed that on the upside if and when a glide path back to ZIRP becomes clear, and house prices will start rising 10-25% per year if deep cuts do occur.
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19k?

With what the 7 having a combined market cap of 20 trillion???

Earnings are going to have be so spectacular that they can keep up with market caps that are already out of touch with reality.
 
Specterx said:
Market is overcooked short term, but under either a "no recession and rate-cuts timing chatter begins" or "mild recession and actual cuts occur" scenario I'm expecting 19k NDX this time next year.

That's the baseline. Stocks will substantially exceed that on the upside if and when a glide path back to ZIRP becomes clear, and house prices will start rising 10-25% per year if deep cuts do occur.
More...
Wouldn't be that surprised either. Looking at the chart, reading it bar by bar, pure pa:
Screenshot_2023-11-15-21-20-08-850_com.tradingview.tradingviewapp-edit.jpg
 
S2007S said:
For instance amazon has added 287 billion in market cap in less than 3 weeks,Apple over 300 billion ..msft nearly half a trillion.....keeping at these market gains and moves would mean these companies being worth many many many multiple trillions more than what they are worth now in only a few months and earnings not being able to keep up with market values...
More...

One has to remember where one came from to see where one is going.


Amazon is flat for 2 months, so right back to where it was and it gained nothing relative...

amznwentnowhere.JPG



Apple is flat for 2 months, so right back to where it was and it gained nothing relative...

aaplwentnowhere.JPG


Microsoft however is up ~10 percent, so that's good...

msftwentsomewhere.JPG


After the holiday rally (assuming it still is coming, which it should be if the Fed maintains the dovish tone next month now that CPI and PPI came in softer than expected) and calendar Q1 '24 earnings, things should settle down. Things would probably settle down faster if Putin or Netanyahoo use a nuke, but I digress.
 
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