Trajan's second option journal
- Thread starter Trajan
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I should also add that I don't consider the VIX at these levels to be bearish until we get into the teens. This has more to do with the fact there was massive demand for vol before the war. Institutions were gobbling up all the long vol products they could get there hands on. The world is a much calmer place today and unless you're Def in Hong Kong or an American business in Asia, SARS is under control in most places except China.
Read this right now on Realmoney, very appropriate, my problem is the real money to be made right now isn't in tech but in the IPs and BOWs. My plan was to shift out of csco and into these type of cyclicals after earnings, unfortunately I already missed part of the move, although csco is still strong:
"Everybody has an opinion when it comes to the markets. And chances are you'll hear all of them before you sit down to trade. That's why it's so important to find your "center of gravity" and stick to it.
I get bombarded with contradictory market opinions from time to time. This past week has been the worst period I can recall. The weird thing is how intense and contradictory the opinions are. For example, I'll get two opposite emails within five minutes of each other. One will say the market is headed straight up, and I'm an idiot if I think otherwise. Then a second missive appears before the electronic ink is dry on the first one. This one tells me why we're headed straight down, and why I'd be a fool to think otherwise.
Voices I trust reflect the same harsh disagreement about the market's future right now. My favorite Elliott Wave guy makes an excellent argument for an April top, while a savvy trader I read tells people to buy the dips. A brilliant technician says the last selloff was a minor setback, while a crusty professional admonishes readers to sell everything.
The hard part is making sense of the strong emotions and differing opinions. How do I interpret these essays, and to which outlook should I expose my capital? The answer lies in coming back to my center of gravity and letting things take care of themselves.
I agree that we're at an important market juncture. Emotions rise at these critical crossroads of trend and time, leading to big commitments by all types of players. This increases volatility and makes prices go against the will of the majority. But the bottom line is, I can't make a dime with anyone's opinion except my own."
"Everybody has an opinion when it comes to the markets. And chances are you'll hear all of them before you sit down to trade. That's why it's so important to find your "center of gravity" and stick to it.
I get bombarded with contradictory market opinions from time to time. This past week has been the worst period I can recall. The weird thing is how intense and contradictory the opinions are. For example, I'll get two opposite emails within five minutes of each other. One will say the market is headed straight up, and I'm an idiot if I think otherwise. Then a second missive appears before the electronic ink is dry on the first one. This one tells me why we're headed straight down, and why I'd be a fool to think otherwise.
Voices I trust reflect the same harsh disagreement about the market's future right now. My favorite Elliott Wave guy makes an excellent argument for an April top, while a savvy trader I read tells people to buy the dips. A brilliant technician says the last selloff was a minor setback, while a crusty professional admonishes readers to sell everything.
The hard part is making sense of the strong emotions and differing opinions. How do I interpret these essays, and to which outlook should I expose my capital? The answer lies in coming back to my center of gravity and letting things take care of themselves.
I agree that we're at an important market juncture. Emotions rise at these critical crossroads of trend and time, leading to big commitments by all types of players. This increases volatility and makes prices go against the will of the majority. But the bottom line is, I can't make a dime with anyone's opinion except my own."
I was too focused on selling options against my position and not just dumping deltas. This is probably an odd problem to have as I would imagine most people are too quick to trade stock than options. I have done this before and got into conflict with my boss who didn't believe my sincerity to trade options as opposed to stock.
That's what I was hoping for in waiting a week. They have been getting some publicity recently and was thinking a pull back would be in order once that faded. Bull markets in these type of cyclicals isn't a 10 or 20 percent move but 50 percent or doubles. I was looking for a pullback just in case this was just a pop up to help the risk/reward. There's still plenty left there, but it will be over a longer period of time.Quote from iceman1:
Good comments... thanks for posting
I saw BOW
the calls were up to 5.10 bid last I looked... may not be too late on a PB to enter IP or BOW?
Ice