Trajan's options journal

Quote from white17:

Trajan; are you now flat the stock or short it ?
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Sorry, I should have said that my position at the end of day was the same posted earlier. I made no more trades, although tried to. I am currently short 241 deltas and long 250 gamma, or I hope my greeks are that. I don't trust anything right now.

Time to vent :

Esignal options are pathetic. Most of you already know that by now. Why do I have to pay substatially more money for something that doesn't deliver the basic goods? The POS gives Vols totally out of whack. How can calls be 46/64 and the puts be 58/63. I simply don't trust them.

For tommorrow, I'm entering orders right now just in case. An order of a thousand to sell will be placed at the mode of yesterday(or near) at 14.14; an order to buy will be at 13.15. Part of this is gamma scalping but most of it is to take advantage of extremes(I sometimes sleep in). Down a half of point will make me short 500 deltas.

I'll look at YHOO tommorrow. It is down against a trend line and may present an opportunity either up or down.
 
Trajan look into how esignal calc vol, maybe they key is of bid/ or offer or mid point. Since these are low premium options a penny could whack the vol % way off. Good luck with tech help at esignal though
 
I would suggest just looking at the IB option analytics or portfolio analytics...It already has the position to run analytics off of as well
 
Trajan: I second the vote on IB's analyics. BTW, I stuck your inputs into CBOE's "toolbox" and came up with long 720 Delta FWIW. Wish you luck here man. You must be pretty bearish on the stock.
 
O.K. Here is what I did this morning. Fill out app for IB, my broker was optionsxpress but this aint gonna work for this. Besides, they don't have day trading margin.

Second, I would like to bitch about the stock getting to within a cent of my buy order and not filling me. FU*&^*^*^(*^. O.K. done with that.

What I should have done was move it up to the high teens and not leave right below the low of the day. It would have been filled on the second dip and provide me with some long deltas for the nice rally. I missed an opportunity to play it.

What I did do was to offer out a ten lot of 15s at initially 1.80 but then changed it to 1.85, where it was filled but only as the stock broke down from the mid thirities.

About the greeks, I'm pretty comfortable right now and have a good grasp of the risk in the position. Esignal has me short 100 deltas, Optionsxpress has me long 400. The position is closer to 400 long deltas than esignal's 100 short
 
Earnings preview from B of A Securities:

Research Brief
Data Networking & Wireline Equipment
Cisco Systems, Inc.
Expect In-line January Quarter
January 31, 2003
BUY
CSCO (NASDAQ): $13.87
12-Month Target Price: $20
Total Return to Target: 44.2%
We expect Cisco (Buy, $13.87) to report in-line with guidance of flat to down (4%). The Company reports its January quarter on February 4th after the market close. Our current estimates are for $4.7 billion in revenues, down (3.5%) sequentially and EPS of $0.13. Street consensus is also $4.7 billion and $0.13. We think book/bill will be 1.0 or greater, and management can guide to flat
in April. We are currently modeling revenues flat at $4.7 billion with EPS of $0.13, in line with consensus.

Europe seems to be coming in above expectations for this quarter,
consistent with other technology and communications equipment
bellwethers. IBM ($78.30, Neutral, $80 Target) and SUNW ($3.15, Neutral, $3 Target, both covered by Joel Wagonfeld,) both showed strong double digit sequential growth in Europe. ALA ($6.67, Sell, covered by Francois Meunier), Nortel ($2.42, Neutral) and TLAB ($7.64, Neutral) all indicated strength in Europe as well. Valuation and Target Price Analysis: We maintain our Buy rating and $20
price target.

Ticker Rating Price Target
CSCO BUY $13.87 $20
UTSI BUY $19.63 $30
Sector View: We believe the volatility of the communications equipment
market and stocks will continue. Successful companies will have strong
balance sheets with strong product cycles.
Sector Price Appreciation Potential (Median of Target Price): 1%
B = Buy, N = Neutral, S = Sell
Company Data FYE Jul 2002A 2003E 2004E
52-Week Range $20-8 EPS
Secular Growth (EPS) Q1 (Oct) $0.04 $0.14 A
Market Cap. $103.7 BB Q2 (Jan) 0.09 0.13
Avg. Daily Vol. 75,427,489 Q3 (Apr) 0.11 0.13
Debt/Cap. (10/02) None Q4 (Jul) 0.14 0.14
Est. Dividend/Yield NONE Fiscal Year $0.39 $0.55 $0.67
Index Data Calendar Yr $0.52 $0.60 $0.74
DJIA 8089 P/E 26.7 23.1 18.7
S&P 500 859
 
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